Maine CD-1

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 56.9% +23%
Trump
0%
Polls: 33.9%
100%



Swing

 
+15.1%
From 2016 Results
+11.4%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
56.9%
Biden (+23%)
33.9%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 10/21-10/25 Colby College LV 426 Trump
34
Biden
56
+22% +22% 0.66
10/15/20 10/2-10/6 Pan Atlantic Research B/C LV 300 Trump
36.5
Biden
54
+17.5% +16.7% 0.42
10/6/20 9/25-10/4 Critical Insights C/D LV 232 Trump
30
Biden
62
+32% +32.2% 0.17
10/6/20 9/25-10/4 Critical Insights C/D RV 243 Trump
29
Biden
61
+32% +32.2% -
9/25/20 9/17-9/23 Colby College LV 416 Trump
36
Biden
54
+18% +18% 0.05
9/21/20 9/17-9/20 Suffolk University A LV 267 Trump
33.7
Biden
55.4
+21.7% +21.1% 0.15
9/21/20 9/17-9/20 Suffolk University A LV 267 Trump
32.6
Biden
54.3
+21.7% +21.1% 0.15
9/16/20 9/10-9/14 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 707 Trump
32
Biden
64
+32% +31.8% 0.21
9/10/20 8/30-9/5 Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates LV 433 Trump
35
Biden
58
+23% +23% -
8/11/20 7/28-8/9 Critical Insights C/D RV 250 Trump
33
Biden
49
+16% +16.2% -
8/6/20 7/30-8/3 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 392 Trump
30
Biden
61
+31% +30.8% 0.09
7/28/20 7/18-7/24 Colby College LV 425 Trump
35
Biden
55
+20% +20% -
10/15/19 10/11-10/13 Public Policy Polling B V 478 Trump
38
Biden
58
+20% +19.6% 0.04


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 42.6 50.5 +7.9%
2012 Romney v Obama 38.2 59.6 +21.4%
2008 McCain v Obama 37.7 60.5 +22.8%
2004 Bush v Kerry 43 55 +12%
2000 Bush v Gore 42.6 50.5 +7.9%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 11:10 AM EDT
10/15
Maine CD-1 polls jumped 2.9% toward Trump (was D+26.5%, now D+23.6%)
10/6
Maine CD-1 polls jumped 2.2% toward Biden (was D+24.1%, now D+26.3%)
9/25
Maine CD-1 polls jumped 1.9% toward Trump (was D+25.9%, now D+24%)