Maine CD-1

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/4 11:10 PM EDT
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Maine CD-1 changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Maine CD-1 Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 57.1% +20.1%
Trump
0%
Polls: 37%
100%



Swing

 
+12.2%
From 2016 Results
+8.5%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
57.1%
Biden (+20.1%)
37%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/29-11/2 Change Research C- LV 549 Trump
35		 Biden
56		 +21% +19.8% 0.91
11/1/20 10/29-10/31 Emerson College A- LV 310 Trump
38.7		 Biden
57.7		 +19% +18.6% 1.06
10/29/20 10/23-10/27 SurveyUSA A LV 498 Trump
40		 Biden
59		 +19% +18.8% 0.95
10/28/20 10/21-10/25 Colby College LV 426 Trump
34		 Biden
56		 +22% +22% 0.47
10/15/20 10/2-10/6 Pan Atlantic Research B/C LV 300 Trump
36.5		 Biden
54		 +17.5% +16.7% 0.3
10/6/20 9/25-10/4 Critical Insights C/D LV 232 Trump
30		 Biden
62		 +32% +32.2% 0.07
10/6/20 9/25-10/4 Critical Insights C/D RV 243 Trump
29		 Biden
61		 +32% +32.2% -
9/25/20 9/17-9/23 Colby College LV 416 Trump
36		 Biden
54		 +18% +18% -
9/21/20 9/17-9/20 Suffolk University A LV 267 Trump
33.7		 Biden
55.4		 +21.7% +21.1% 0.11
9/21/20 9/17-9/20 Suffolk University A LV 267 Trump
32.6		 Biden
54.3		 +21.7% +21.1% 0.11
9/16/20 9/10-9/14 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 707 Trump
32		 Biden
64		 +32% +31.8% 0.15
9/10/20 8/30-9/5 Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates LV 433 Trump
35		 Biden
58		 +23% +23% -
8/11/20 7/28-8/9 Critical Insights C/D RV 250 Trump
33		 Biden
49		 +16% +16.2% -
8/6/20 7/30-8/3 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 392 Trump
30		 Biden
61		 +31% +30.8% 0.07
7/28/20 7/18-7/24 Colby College LV 425 Trump
35		 Biden
55		 +20% +20% -
10/15/19 10/11-10/13 Public Policy Polling B V 478 Trump
38		 Biden
58		 +20% +19.6% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 42.6 50.5 +7.9%
2012 Romney v Obama 38.2 59.6 +21.4%
2008 McCain v Obama 37.7 60.5 +22.8%
2004 Bush v Kerry 43 55 +12%
2000 Bush v Gore 42.6 50.5 +7.9%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 12:49 AM EDT
10/29
Maine CD-1 polls jumped 1.6% toward Trump (was D+23%, now D+21.4%)
10/15
Maine CD-1 polls jumped 2.9% toward Trump (was D+26.5%, now D+23.6%)
10/6
Maine CD-1 polls jumped 2.2% toward Biden (was D+24.1%, now D+26.3%)
9/25
Maine CD-1 polls jumped 1.9% toward Trump (was D+25.9%, now D+24%)