Maine CD-2

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 5/15 2:12 AM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Maine CD-2 changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Maine CD-2 Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Toss Up

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
55.6%
Polls: 48.3% +2.1%
Trump
44.4%
Polls: 46.2%
55.6%
44.4%



Swing

 
+12.4%
From 2016 Results
+4%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.816 Testing Range: +/- 6.58%




Tipping Point



0.1%
of the time





Polls

 
48.3%
Biden (+2.1%)
46.2%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/29-11/2 Change Research C- LV 475 Trump
50		 Biden
50		 0% +1.2% 0.44
11/2/20 10/29-11/2 Change Research C- LV 475 Trump
46		 Biden
47		 +1% +0.2% 0.44
11/1/20 10/29-10/31 Emerson College A- LV 301 Trump
46.8		 Biden
49.8		 +3% +2.6% 1.05
10/29/20 10/23-10/27 SurveyUSA A LV 509 Trump
48.6		 Biden
51.4		 +2.8% +2.6% 0.47
10/29/20 10/23-10/27 SurveyUSA A LV 509 Trump
45		 Biden
48		 +3% +2.8% 0.47
10/28/20 10/21-10/25 Colby College LV 453 Trump
42		 Biden
46		 +4% +4% 0.48
10/15/20 10/2-10/6 Pan Atlantic Research B/C LV 300 Trump
43		 Biden
46.5		 +3.5% +2.7% 0.3
10/6/20 9/25-10/4 Critical Insights C/D LV 234 Trump
49		 Biden
41		 +8% +7.8% 0.07
10/6/20 9/25-10/4 Critical Insights C/D RV 248 Trump
49		 Biden
40		 +9% +8.8% -
9/25/20 9/17-9/23 Colby College LV 425 Trump
43		 Biden
46		 +3% +3% -
9/21/20 9/17-9/20 Suffolk University A LV 233 Trump
45.5		 Biden
46.8		 +1.3% +0.7% 0.11
9/21/20 9/17-9/20 Suffolk University A LV 233 Trump
45.5		 Biden
46.8		 +1.3% +0.7% 0.11
9/18/20 9/11-9/16 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 440 Trump
45		 Biden
47		 +2% +2.4% 0.26
9/16/20 9/10-9/14 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 476 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +8.8% 0.14
9/10/20 8/30-9/5 Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates LV 367 Trump
45		 Biden
49		 +4% +4% -
9/8/20 8/25-8/28 LOC Wick LV 400 Trump
49.3		 Biden
47.5		 +1.8% +1.8% -
8/11/20 7/28-8/9 Critical Insights C/D RV 249 Trump
38		 Biden
39		 +1% +1.2% -
8/6/20 7/30-8/3 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 382 Trump
45		 Biden
44		 +1% +1.2% 0.06
7/28/20 7/18-7/24 Colby College LV 449 Trump
42		 Biden
45		 +3% +3% -
10/15/19 10/11-10/13 Public Policy Polling B V 461 Trump
46		 Biden
49		 +3% +2.6% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 51.3 41 +10.3%
2012 Romney v Obama 44.4 52.9 +8.6%
2008 McCain v Obama 43.4 54.6 +11.3%
2004 Bush v Kerry 46 52 +6%
2000 Bush v Gore 45.6 47.4 +1.9%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 1:33 AM EDT
10/21
Maine CD-2 projected winner changed to Biden (50.1% chance of winning)
10/15
Maine CD-2 projected winner changed to Biden (50.6% chance of winning)
10/9
Maine CD-2 projected winner changed to Trump (51.3% chance of winning)
10/8
Maine CD-2 projected winner changed to Biden (50.2% chance of winning)
10/6
Maine CD-2 polls jumped 2.3% toward Trump (was D+3.1%, now D+0.8%)
Maine CD-2 projected winner changed to Trump (50.4% chance of winning)