Maryland

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 60.3% +27.6%
Trump
0%
Polls: 32.7%
100%



Swing

 
+1.2%
From 2016 Results
+4.6%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
60.3%
Biden (+27.6%)
32.7%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,665 Trump
31
Biden
67
+36% +31% 0.15
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,665 Trump
30
Biden
67
+37% +32% -
10/26/20 10/19-10/24 Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. B/C RV 820 Trump
32.9
Biden
58
+25.1% +25.5% 0.89
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,456 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% 0.11
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,456 Trump
30
Biden
67
+37% +32% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,359 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% 0.09
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,359 Trump
30
Biden
67
+37% +32% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,324 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% 0.07
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,324 Trump
30
Biden
67
+37% +32% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,194 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,194 Trump
30
Biden
67
+37% +32% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,892 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,892 Trump
30
Biden
67
+37% +32% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,780 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,780 Trump
30
Biden
67
+37% +32% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,647 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,647 Trump
31
Biden
67
+36% +31% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,483 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,483 Trump
31
Biden
67
+36% +31% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,385 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,385 Trump
31
Biden
67
+36% +31% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,302 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,302 Trump
31
Biden
67
+36% +31% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,105 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,105 Trump
31
Biden
67
+36% +31% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,878 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,878 Trump
31
Biden
67
+36% +31% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,707 Trump
33
Biden
66
+33% +28% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,707 Trump
31
Biden
66
+35% +30% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,564 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,564 Trump
31
Biden
66
+35% +30% -
10/8/20 9/30-10/4 Goucher College LV 776 Trump
30
Biden
61
+31% +31% 0.13
10/7/20 9/29-10/1 Change Research C- V 650 Trump
32
Biden
61
+29% +27.8% 0.29
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,175 Trump
32.2
Biden
65.7
+33.5% +28.5% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,175 Trump
34.2
Biden
64
+29.7% +24.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,911 Trump
30.4
Biden
66.6
+36.2% +31.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,911 Trump
31.7
Biden
66.3
+34.6% +29.6% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,813 Trump
31.2
Biden
64.5
+33.4% +28.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,813 Trump
31
Biden
66
+35% +30% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,364 Trump
29.9
Biden
68
+38.1% +33.1% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,364 Trump
31
Biden
67.1
+36.1% +31.1% -
9/25/20 9/4-9/11 OpinionWorks B/C RV 838 Trump
29
Biden
61
+32% +32.6% -
9/25/20 9/4-9/11 OpinionWorks B/C LV 753 Trump
30
Biden
62
+32% +32.6% 0.08
5/26/20 5/19-5/23 Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. B/C LV 810 Trump
35.3
Biden
59.1
+23.8% +24.2% -
2/25/20 2/13-2/19 Goucher College LV 718 Trump
35
Biden
60
+25% +25% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 33.9 60.3 +26.4%
2012 Romney v Obama 35.9 62 +26.1%
2008 McCain v Obama 36.5 61.9 +25.5%
2004 Bush v Kerry 42.9 55.9 +13%
2000 Bush v Gore 40.2 56.6 +16.4%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 11:27 AM EDT
10/26
Maryland polls jumped 1.8% toward Trump (was D+29.5%, now D+27.7%)
10/7
Maryland polls jumped 1.6% toward Trump (was D+30.5%, now D+28.9%)
10/3
Maryland polls jumped 1.5% toward Biden (was D+29.2%, now D+30.7%)