Maryland

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 12/10 11:48 AM EST
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Maryland changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Maryland Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 62.2% +29.4%
Trump
0%
Polls: 32.8%
100%



Swing

 
+3%
From 2016 Results
+6.4%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
62.2%
Biden (+29.4%)
32.8%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/23-11/1 Swayable D- LV 503 Trump
31.1		 Biden
67		 +35.9% +35.9% 0.51
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,918 Trump
32		 Biden
65		 +33% +28% 0.26
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,918 Trump
30		 Biden
66		 +36% +31% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,150 Trump
31		 Biden
66		 +35% +30% 0.24
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,150 Trump
30		 Biden
66		 +36% +31% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,154 Trump
31		 Biden
66		 +35% +30% 0.21
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,154 Trump
30		 Biden
67		 +37% +32% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,185 Trump
31		 Biden
66		 +35% +30% 0.19
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,185 Trump
30		 Biden
67		 +37% +32% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,820 Trump
32		 Biden
66		 +34% +29% 0.07
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,820 Trump
30		 Biden
67		 +37% +32% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,665 Trump
31		 Biden
67		 +36% +31% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,665 Trump
30		 Biden
67		 +37% +32% -
10/26/20 10/19-10/24 Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. B/C RV 820 Trump
32.9		 Biden
58		 +25.1% +25.5% 0.74
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,456 Trump
32		 Biden
67		 +35% +30% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,456 Trump
30		 Biden
67		 +37% +32% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,359 Trump
32		 Biden
66		 +34% +29% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,359 Trump
30		 Biden
67		 +37% +32% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,324 Trump
32		 Biden
66		 +34% +29% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,324 Trump
30		 Biden
67		 +37% +32% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,194 Trump
32		 Biden
66		 +34% +29% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,194 Trump
30		 Biden
67		 +37% +32% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,892 Trump
32		 Biden
67		 +35% +30% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,892 Trump
30		 Biden
67		 +37% +32% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,780 Trump
32		 Biden
67		 +35% +30% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,780 Trump
30		 Biden
67		 +37% +32% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,647 Trump
32		 Biden
66		 +34% +29% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,647 Trump
31		 Biden
67		 +36% +31% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,483 Trump
32		 Biden
66		 +34% +29% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,483 Trump
31		 Biden
67		 +36% +31% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,385 Trump
32		 Biden
66		 +34% +29% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,385 Trump
31		 Biden
67		 +36% +31% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,302 Trump
32		 Biden
66		 +34% +29% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,302 Trump
31		 Biden
67		 +36% +31% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,105 Trump
32		 Biden
67		 +35% +30% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,105 Trump
31		 Biden
67		 +36% +31% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,878 Trump
32		 Biden
66		 +34% +29% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,878 Trump
31		 Biden
67		 +36% +31% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,707 Trump
33		 Biden
66		 +33% +28% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,707 Trump
31		 Biden
66		 +35% +30% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,564 Trump
32		 Biden
66		 +34% +29% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,564 Trump
31		 Biden
66		 +35% +30% -
10/8/20 9/30-10/4 Goucher College LV 776 Trump
30		 Biden
61		 +31% +31% -
10/7/20 9/29-10/1 Change Research C- V 650 Trump
32		 Biden
61		 +29% +27.8% 0.18
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,175 Trump
32.2		 Biden
65.7		 +33.5% +28.5% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,175 Trump
34.2		 Biden
64		 +29.7% +24.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,911 Trump
30.4		 Biden
66.6		 +36.2% +31.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,911 Trump
31.7		 Biden
66.3		 +34.6% +29.6% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,813 Trump
31.2		 Biden
64.5		 +33.4% +28.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,813 Trump
31		 Biden
66		 +35% +30% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,364 Trump
29.9		 Biden
68		 +38.1% +33.1% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,364 Trump
31		 Biden
67.1		 +36.1% +31.1% -
9/25/20 9/4-9/11 OpinionWorks B/C RV 838 Trump
29		 Biden
61		 +32% +32.6% -
9/25/20 9/4-9/11 OpinionWorks B/C LV 753 Trump
30		 Biden
62		 +32% +32.6% -
5/26/20 5/19-5/23 Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. B/C LV 810 Trump
35.3		 Biden
59.1		 +23.8% +24.2% -
2/25/20 2/13-2/19 Goucher College LV 718 Trump
35		 Biden
60		 +25% +25% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 33.9 60.3 +26.4%
2012 Romney v Obama 35.9 62 +26.1%
2008 McCain v Obama 36.5 61.9 +25.5%
2004 Bush v Kerry 42.9 55.9 +13%
2000 Bush v Gore 40.2 56.6 +16.4%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 3:03 AM EST
11/2
Maryland polls jumped 1.5% toward Biden (was D+28%, now D+29.5%)
10/26
Maryland polls jumped 1.8% toward Trump (was D+29.5%, now D+27.7%)
10/7
Maryland polls jumped 1.6% toward Trump (was D+30.5%, now D+28.9%)
10/3
Maryland polls jumped 1.5% toward Biden (was D+29.2%, now D+30.7%)