Massachusetts

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 64.6% +35%
Trump
0%
Polls: 29.6%
100%



Swing

 
+7.8%
From 2016 Results
+11.8%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
64.6%
Biden (+35%)
29.6%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,310 Trump
28
Biden
70
+42% +37% 0.12
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,310 Trump
28
Biden
69
+41% +36% -
10/26/20 10/14-10/21 YouGov B LV 713 Trump
29
Biden
64
+35% +34.6% 0.85
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,248 Trump
28
Biden
70
+42% +37% 0.1
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,248 Trump
28
Biden
69
+41% +36% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,198 Trump
28
Biden
70
+42% +37% 0.07
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,198 Trump
28
Biden
69
+41% +36% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,133 Trump
28
Biden
70
+42% +37% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,133 Trump
28
Biden
69
+41% +36% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,030 Trump
28
Biden
70
+42% +37% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,030 Trump
28
Biden
69
+41% +36% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,820 Trump
28
Biden
70
+42% +37% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,820 Trump
28
Biden
69
+41% +36% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,600 Trump
29
Biden
69
+40% +35% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,600 Trump
29
Biden
69
+40% +35% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,467 Trump
29
Biden
70
+41% +36% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,467 Trump
29
Biden
69
+40% +35% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,405 Trump
28
Biden
70
+42% +37% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,405 Trump
29
Biden
69
+40% +35% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,325 Trump
29
Biden
70
+41% +36% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,325 Trump
29
Biden
69
+40% +35% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,077 Trump
29
Biden
69
+40% +35% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,077 Trump
29
Biden
69
+40% +35% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,871 Trump
29
Biden
69
+40% +35% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,871 Trump
29
Biden
69
+40% +35% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,704 Trump
29
Biden
69
+40% +35% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,704 Trump
29
Biden
68
+39% +34% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,523 Trump
30
Biden
68
+38% +33% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,523 Trump
30
Biden
68
+38% +33% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,091 Trump
27.7
Biden
70.2
+42.5% +37.5% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,091 Trump
27.5
Biden
70.8
+43.3% +38.3% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,509 Trump
26.8
Biden
70.6
+43.8% +38.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,509 Trump
26.3
Biden
71.8
+45.5% +40.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,286 Trump
28.6
Biden
68.1
+39.5% +34.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,286 Trump
29
Biden
69
+40% +35% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,665 Trump
32.1
Biden
65
+32.9% +27.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,665 Trump
31.8
Biden
66
+34.2% +29.2% -
8/28/20 8/25-8/27 Emerson College A- LV 763 Trump
30.6
Biden
69.4
+38.9% +38.5% 0.17
8/14/20 7/31-8/7 YouGov B RV 500 Trump
28
Biden
61
+33% +32.6% 0.06
8/12/20 8/6-8/9 MassINC Polling Group A/B LV 501 Trump
27
Biden
63
+36% +36.8% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/20 MassINC Polling Group A/B RV 797 Trump
23
Biden
55
+32% +32.8% 0.11
5/7/20 5/5-5/6 Emerson College A- RV 740 Trump
33.1
Biden
66.9
+33.7% +33.3% 0.13
5/7/20 4/27-5/1 University of Massachusetts Lowell A/B RV 1,000 Trump
30
Biden
58
+28% +28.2% 0.08
4/7/19 4/4-4/7 Emerson College A- RV 761 Trump
31.2
Biden
68.8
+37.6% +37.2% 0.13


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 32.8 60 +27.2%
2012 Romney v Obama 37.5 60.7 +23.1%
2008 McCain v Obama 36 61.8 +25.8%
2004 Bush v Kerry 36.8 61.9 +25.2%
2000 Bush v Gore 32.5 59.8 +27.3%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/27 10:23 PM EDT
10/3
Massachusetts polls jumped 1.8% toward Trump (was D+36.6%, now D+34.8%)