Massachusetts

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 12/10 11:48 AM EST
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Massachusetts changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Massachusetts Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 64% +34.6%
Trump
0%
Polls: 29.4%
100%



Swing

 
+7.4%
From 2016 Results
+11.4%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
64%
Biden (+34.6%)
29.4%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/23-10/30 MassINC Polling Group A/B LV 929 Trump
28		 Biden
62		 +34% +34.8% 1.01
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,293 Trump
29		 Biden
69		 +40% +35% 0.27
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,293 Trump
29		 Biden
68		 +39% +34% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,462 Trump
29		 Biden
68		 +39% +34% 0.24
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,462 Trump
29		 Biden
68		 +39% +34% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,432 Trump
29		 Biden
68		 +39% +34% 0.21
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,432 Trump
29		 Biden
68		 +39% +34% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,445 Trump
29		 Biden
68		 +39% +34% 0.19
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,445 Trump
29		 Biden
68		 +39% +34% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,848 Trump
28		 Biden
70		 +42% +37% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,848 Trump
28		 Biden
69		 +41% +36% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,647 Trump
28		 Biden
70		 +42% +37% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,647 Trump
29		 Biden
69		 +40% +35% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,310 Trump
28		 Biden
70		 +42% +37% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,310 Trump
28		 Biden
69		 +41% +36% -
10/26/20 10/14-10/21 YouGov B LV 713 Trump
29		 Biden
64		 +35% +34.6% 0.66
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,248 Trump
28		 Biden
70		 +42% +37% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,248 Trump
28		 Biden
69		 +41% +36% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,198 Trump
28		 Biden
70		 +42% +37% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,198 Trump
28		 Biden
69		 +41% +36% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,133 Trump
28		 Biden
70		 +42% +37% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,133 Trump
28		 Biden
69		 +41% +36% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,030 Trump
28		 Biden
70		 +42% +37% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,030 Trump
28		 Biden
69		 +41% +36% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,820 Trump
28		 Biden
70		 +42% +37% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,820 Trump
28		 Biden
69		 +41% +36% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,600 Trump
29		 Biden
69		 +40% +35% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,600 Trump
29		 Biden
69		 +40% +35% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,467 Trump
29		 Biden
70		 +41% +36% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,467 Trump
29		 Biden
69		 +40% +35% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,405 Trump
28		 Biden
70		 +42% +37% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,405 Trump
29		 Biden
69		 +40% +35% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,325 Trump
29		 Biden
70		 +41% +36% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,325 Trump
29		 Biden
69		 +40% +35% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,077 Trump
29		 Biden
69		 +40% +35% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,077 Trump
29		 Biden
69		 +40% +35% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,871 Trump
29		 Biden
69		 +40% +35% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,871 Trump
29		 Biden
69		 +40% +35% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,704 Trump
29		 Biden
69		 +40% +35% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,704 Trump
29		 Biden
68		 +39% +34% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,523 Trump
30		 Biden
68		 +38% +33% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,523 Trump
30		 Biden
68		 +38% +33% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,091 Trump
27.7		 Biden
70.2		 +42.5% +37.5% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,091 Trump
27.5		 Biden
70.8		 +43.3% +38.3% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,509 Trump
26.8		 Biden
70.6		 +43.8% +38.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,509 Trump
26.3		 Biden
71.8		 +45.5% +40.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,286 Trump
28.6		 Biden
68.1		 +39.5% +34.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,286 Trump
29		 Biden
69		 +40% +35% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,665 Trump
32.1		 Biden
65		 +32.9% +27.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,665 Trump
31.8		 Biden
66		 +34.2% +29.2% -
8/28/20 8/25-8/27 Emerson College A- LV 763 Trump
30.6		 Biden
69.4		 +38.9% +38.5% 0.11
8/14/20 7/31-8/7 YouGov B RV 500 Trump
28		 Biden
61		 +33% +32.6% -
8/12/20 8/6-8/9 MassINC Polling Group A/B LV 501 Trump
27		 Biden
63		 +36% +36.8% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/20 MassINC Polling Group A/B RV 797 Trump
23		 Biden
55		 +32% +32.8% 0.08
5/7/20 5/5-5/6 Emerson College A- RV 740 Trump
33.1		 Biden
66.9		 +33.7% +33.3% 0.1
5/7/20 4/27-5/1 University of Massachusetts Lowell A/B RV 1,000 Trump
30		 Biden
58		 +28% +28.2% 0.06
4/7/19 4/4-4/7 Emerson College A- RV 761 Trump
31.2		 Biden
68.8		 +37.6% +37.2% 0.1


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 32.8 60 +27.2%
2012 Romney v Obama 37.5 60.7 +23.1%
2008 McCain v Obama 36 61.8 +25.8%
2004 Bush v Kerry 36.8 61.9 +25.2%
2000 Bush v Gore 32.5 59.8 +27.3%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 12:50 AM EST
10/3
Massachusetts polls jumped 1.8% toward Trump (was D+36.6%, now D+34.8%)