Michigan

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 1/26 12:24 PM EST
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Michigan changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Michigan Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Likely Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
96.8%
Polls: 50.6% +7%
Trump
3.2%
Polls: 43.6%
96.8%
3.2%



Swing

 
+7.2%
From 2016 Results
+3.9%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.816 Testing Range: +/- 4.27%




Tipping Point



5.5%
of the time





Polls

 
50.6%
Biden (+7%)
43.6%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/24-10/25 Wick LV 1,000 Trump
48.1		 Biden
48.4		 +0.3% +0.3% 0.47
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 Swayable D- LV 413 Trump
44.9		 Biden
53.6		 +8.7% +8.7% 0.44
11/2/20 10/9-10/10 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 827 Trump
41		 Biden
51		 +10% +10% -
11/2/20 10/10-10/13 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 972 Trump
42		 Biden
51		 +9% +9% -
11/2/20 10/26-10/29 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,212 Trump
41		 Biden
54		 +13% +13% 0.61
11/2/20 10/29-11/1 Change Research C- LV 383 Trump
44		 Biden
51		 +7% +5.8% 0.83
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,976 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,976 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +4% -
11/2/20 10/31-11/1 Research Co. B- LV 450 Trump
43		 Biden
50		 +7% +7.6% 1.06
11/2/20 10/22-10/31 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,736 Trump
44.5		 Biden
51.8		 +7.3% +7.1% 0.95
11/2/20 10/30-10/31 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,033 Trump
48.3		 Biden
45.8		 +2.5% +1.5% 0.96
11/1/20 10/30-10/31 AtlasIntel B/C LV 686 Trump
45.9		 Biden
48.3		 +2.4% +2.4% 1.03
11/1/20 10/25-10/30 Targoz Market Research C/D LV 993 Trump
39		 Biden
53		 +14% +12.4% 0.75
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,202 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,202 Trump
45		 Biden
52		 +7% +2% -
11/1/20 10/27-11/1 Ipsos B- LV 654 Trump
43		 Biden
53		 +10% +9.6% 0.35
11/1/20 10/30-10/31 InsiderAdvantage B- LV 500 Trump
46.7		 Biden
48.8		 +2.1% +0.9% 1.01
11/1/20 10/27-11/1 Ipsos B- LV 654 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +7.6% 0.35
11/1/20 10/29-10/29 Mitchell Research & Communications C- LV 817 Trump
45		 Biden
52.1		 +7.1% +6.3% 0.82
11/1/20 10/29-10/31 Emerson College A- LV 700 Trump
45.5		 Biden
52		 +6.5% +6.1% 1.12
11/1/20 10/25-10/28 EPIC-MRA B+ LV 600 Trump
41		 Biden
48		 +7% +7.2% 0.9
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,216 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,216 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +4% -
10/31/20 10/23-10/30 CNN/SSRS B/C RV 953 Trump
40		 Biden
54		 +14% +12.8% -
10/31/20 10/23-10/30 CNN/SSRS B/C LV 907 Trump
41		 Biden
53		 +12% +10.8% 0.86
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,244 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,244 Trump
44		 Biden
52		 +8% +3% -
10/30/20 10/25-10/28 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,058 Trump
49.1		 Biden
46.6		 +2.5% +1.5% 0.77
10/30/20 10/27-10/29 RMG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
44		 Biden
51		 +7% +7% 0.89
10/30/20 10/29-10/30 Public Policy Polling B V 745 Trump
44		 Biden
54		 +10% +9.6% 1.02
10/30/20 10/21-10/28 Kiaer Research LV 669 Trump
40.6		 Biden
53.5		 +12.9% +12.9% 0.42
10/30/20 10/23-10/26 Swayable D- LV 394 Trump
39.6		 Biden
58.6		 +19% +19% 0.23
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,541 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,541 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +4% -
10/29/20 10/17-10/20 Citizen Data LV 1,000 Trump
41.4		 Biden
49.5		 +8.1% +8.1% 0.18
10/28/20 10/25-10/27 Mitchell Research & Communications C- LV 759 Trump
42		 Biden
52.4		 +10.4% +9.6% 0.67
10/28/20 10/23-10/26 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 856 Trump
41		 Biden
49		 +8% +8.4% 1
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,272 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +4% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,272 Trump
43		 Biden
53		 +10% +5% -
10/28/20 10/20-10/25 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ LV 789 Trump
44		 Biden
51		 +7% +6.4% 0.91
10/28/20 10/20-10/25 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ RV 902 Trump
44		 Biden
49		 +5% +4.4% -
10/27/20 10/23-10/25 Glengariff Group B/C LV 600 Trump
41.6		 Biden
49.3		 +7.7% +7.3% 0.71
10/27/20 10/20-10/26 Ipsos B- LV 652 Trump
43		 Biden
53		 +10% +9.6% 0.16
10/27/20 10/20-10/26 Ipsos B- LV 652 Trump
43		 Biden
52		 +9% +8.6% 0.16
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,094 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,094 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +4% -
10/26/20 10/13-10/21 YouGov B RV 745 Trump
42		 Biden
51		 +9% +8.6% -
10/26/20 10/13-10/21 YouGov B LV 681 Trump
42		 Biden
52		 +10% +9.6% 0.53
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,965 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,965 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +4% -
10/25/20 10/24-10/24 Gravis Marketing C LV 679 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +12% 0.63
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,891 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +4% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,891 Trump
43		 Biden
53		 +10% +5% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,767 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +4% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,767 Trump
43		 Biden
53		 +10% +5% -
10/23/20 10/3-10/6 Opinion Insight A/B LV 800 Trump
42		 Biden
51		 +9% +9.6% 0.24
10/23/20 8/30-9/2 Opinion Insight A/B LV 800 Trump
44		 Biden
50		 +6% +6.6% -
10/23/20 10/11-10/18 Zia Poll C/D LV 2,851 Trump
49		 Biden
45		 +4% +3.4% 0.21
10/23/20 10/15-10/19 EPIC-MRA B+ LV 600 Trump
39		 Biden
48		 +9% +9.2% 0.55
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,607 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +4% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,607 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +4% -
10/22/20 10/21-10/22 Public Policy Polling B V 804 Trump
43		 Biden
50		 +7% +6.6% 0.7
10/22/20 10/15-10/18 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,034 Trump
46.7		 Biden
44.9		 +1.8% +0.8% 0.34
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,717 Trump
44		 Biden
52		 +8% +7.8% 0.45
10/21/20 10/17-10/20 Fox News A- RV 1,104 Trump
40		 Biden
51		 +11% +9.6% -
10/21/20 10/17-10/20 Fox News A- LV 1,032 Trump
40		 Biden
52		 +12% +10.6% 0.69
10/21/20 10/15-10/18 Data for Progress B- LV 830 Trump
45		 Biden
50		 +5% +5% 0.5
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,519 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,519 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +4% -
10/20/20 10/14-10/20 Ipsos B- LV 686 Trump
44		 Biden
52		 +8% +7.6% 0.06
10/20/20 10/16-10/19 Change Research C- LV 718 Trump
44		 Biden
51		 +7% +5.8% 0.36
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,222 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,222 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +4% -
10/20/20 10/14-10/20 Ipsos B- LV 686 Trump
44		 Biden
51		 +7% +6.6% 0.06
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,026 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,026 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +4% -
10/19/20 10/18-10/18 Mitchell Research & Communications C- LV 900 Trump
41		 Biden
51		 +10% +9.2% 0.38
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,930 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +4% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,930 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +4% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,794 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +4% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,794 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +4% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,448 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,448 Trump
44		 Biden
52		 +8% +3% -
10/16/20 10/12-10/15 Harris Poll C LV 1,289 Trump
43		 Biden
54		 +11% +12.4% 0.29
10/16/20 10/11-10/14 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,025 Trump
46.5		 Biden
45.9		 +0.6% +0.4% 0.19
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,093 Trump
45		 Biden
52		 +7% +2% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,093 Trump
45		 Biden
52		 +7% +2% -
10/15/20 10/8-10/11 Civiqs B/C LV 543 Trump
43		 Biden
52		 +9% +9% 0.22
10/15/20 10/8-10/13 RMG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
42		 Biden
48		 +6% +6% 0.27
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,848 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,848 Trump
45		 Biden
52		 +7% +2% -
10/14/20 10/8-10/12 EPIC-MRA B+ LV 600 Trump
39		 Biden
48		 +9% +9.2% 0.33
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,656 Trump
46		 Biden
51		 +5% 0% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,656 Trump
45		 Biden
51		 +6% +1% -
10/13/20 10/7-10/13 Ipsos B- LV 620 Trump
44		 Biden
51		 +7% +6.6% -
10/13/20 10/7-10/13 Ipsos B- LV 620 Trump
43		 Biden
51		 +8% +7.6% -
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,710 Trump
44		 Biden
51		 +7% +6.8% 0.17
10/12/20 10/6-10/11 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 614 Trump
40		 Biden
48		 +8% +8.4% 0.46
10/11/20 10/6-10/9 YouGov B LV 1,190 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +5.6% 0.27
10/11/20 9/30-10/8 Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll) C/D LV 1,134 Trump
43.2		 Biden
50.2		 +7% +6.2% -
10/9/20 10/4-10/6 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 700 Trump
42		 Biden
50		 +8% +8% -
10/8/20 10/6-10/7 Emerson College A- LV 716 Trump
43.4		 Biden
54.2		 +10.8% +10.4% 0.32
10/6/20 9/29-10/6 Ipsos B- LV 709 Trump
43		 Biden
51		 +8% +7.6% 0.09
10/6/20 10/2-10/4 Change Research C- LV 676 Trump
43		 Biden
51		 +8% +6.8% -
10/5/20 9/30-10/3 Glengariff Group B/C LV 600 Trump
39.2		 Biden
48		 +8.8% +8.4% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,238 Trump
43.9		 Biden
52.4		 +8.5% +3.5% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,238 Trump
45.9		 Biden
51		 +5.2% +0.1% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,083 Trump
47		 Biden
50.4		 +3.5% +1.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,083 Trump
48.3		 Biden
49.5		 +1.2% +3.8% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,962 Trump
47.1		 Biden
49.5		 +2.4% +2.6% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,962 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +4% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,297 Trump
43.6		 Biden
53.1		 +9.5% +4.5% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,297 Trump
44.4		 Biden
52.7		 +8.3% +3.3% -
10/2/20 9/30-10/1 Public Policy Polling B V 746 Trump
44		 Biden
50		 +6% +5.6% 0.14
10/2/20 9/23-9/26 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 785 Trump
42		 Biden
51		 +9% +9% -
9/30/20 9/17-9/23 ALG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
44		 Biden
52		 +8% +6.4% -
9/30/20 9/26-9/28 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,042 Trump
47.1		 Biden
48.7		 +1.6% +2.6% -
9/27/20 9/19-9/23 Marist College A+ LV 799 Trump
44		 Biden
52		 +8% +8.4% 0.11
9/27/20 9/19-9/23 Marist College A+ RV 1,082 Trump
43		 Biden
52		 +9% +9.4% -
9/25/20 9/17-9/19 Hart Research Associates B/C LV 400 Trump
45		 Biden
50		 +5% +3.6% -
9/24/20 9/20-9/22 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,015 Trump
46.7		 Biden
46		 +0.7% +0.3% -
9/24/20 9/14-9/19 Data for Progress B- LV 455 Trump
44		 Biden
50		 +6% +6% -
9/24/20 9/14-9/19 Data for Progress B- LV 455 Trump
42		 Biden
48		 +6% +6% -
9/24/20 9/10-9/21 YouGov B LV 641 Trump
45		 Biden
51		 +6% +5.6% -
9/24/20 9/10-9/21 YouGov B RV 737 Trump
42		 Biden
50		 +8% +7.6% -
9/23/20 9/8-9/22 Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll) C/D LV 1,001 Trump
41.9		 Biden
49.9		 +8% +7.2% -
9/23/20 9/18-9/20 Change Research C- LV 568 Trump
43		 Biden
51		 +8% +6.8% -
9/22/20 9/11-9/16 Ipsos B- LV 637 Trump
44		 Biden
49		 +5% +4.6% -
9/22/20 9/14-9/19 Marketing Resource Group (MRG) B/C LV 600 Trump
41		 Biden
46		 +5% +4.6% -
9/18/20 9/12-9/14 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 930 Trump
39		 Biden
49		 +10% +10% -
9/18/20 9/11-9/15 Civiqs B/C RV 517 Trump
42		 Biden
53		 +11% +11% -
9/18/20 9/10-9/15 EPIC-MRA B+ LV 600 Trump
40		 Biden
48		 +8% +8.2% -
9/10/20 9/2-9/3 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 1,000 Trump
44.3		 Biden
52.9		 +8.6% +10.2% -
9/10/20 8/28-9/8 Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group LV 1,600 Trump
43		 Biden
50		 +7% +7% -
9/9/20 8/29-9/7 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,455 Trump
42		 Biden
52		 +10% +9.8% -
9/9/20 9/4-9/6 Change Research C- LV 876 Trump
43		 Biden
49		 +6% +4.8% -
9/8/20 9/1-9/3 Glengariff Group B/C LV 600 Trump
42.3		 Biden
47		 +4.7% +4.3% -
9/8/20 8/30-9/3 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 967 Trump
40		 Biden
51		 +11% +11% -
9/4/20 8/11-8/15 Hodas & Associates LV 600 Trump
40.9		 Biden
52.3		 +11.3% +11.3% -
9/1/20 8/28-8/29 Public Policy Polling B V 897 Trump
44		 Biden
48		 +4% +3.6% -
9/1/20 8/21-8/30 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,424 Trump
42		 Biden
52		 +10% +9.8% -
9/1/20 8/7-8/16 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,212 Trump
44		 Biden
50		 +6% +5.8% -
8/28/20 8/14-8/23 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,048 Trump
46.6		 Biden
45.2		 +1.4% +0.4% -
8/26/20 8/21-8/23 Change Research C- LV 809 Trump
44		 Biden
50		 +6% +4.8% -
8/21/20 8/16-8/18 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 812 Trump
38		 Biden
50		 +12% +12% -
8/21/20 8/13-8/17 Civiqs B/C RV 631 Trump
46		 Biden
49		 +3% +3% -
8/18/20 7/30-8/4 GQR Research B LV 500 Trump
43		 Biden
52		 +9% +6.8% -
8/12/20 8/7-8/9 Change Research C- LV 413 Trump
43		 Biden
48		 +5% +3.8% -
8/10/20 7/27-8/6 YouGov B RV 761 Trump
43		 Biden
47		 +4% +3.6% -
8/7/20 7/25-7/30 EPIC-MRA B+ LV 600 Trump
40		 Biden
51		 +11% +11.2% -
8/6/20 7/30-7/31 David Binder Research B/C LV 200 Trump
41		 Biden
51		 +10% +10% -
8/5/20 7/13-7/16 Hodas & Associates LV 600 Trump
40.5		 Biden
52.5		 +12% +12% -
8/3/20 7/28-7/29 Public Policy Polling B V 876 Trump
43		 Biden
49		 +6% +5.6% -
7/30/20 7/19-7/24 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 811 Trump
37		 Biden
49		 +12% +12% -
7/29/20 6/11-6/16 TargetPoint B/C A 1,000 Trump
33		 Biden
49		 +16% +16% -
7/29/20 7/24-7/26 Change Research C- LV 413 Trump
42		 Biden
46		 +4% +2.8% -
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,325 Trump
42		 Biden
50		 +8% +7.8% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,320 Trump
42		 Biden
52		 +10% +9.8% -
7/26/20 7/21-7/24 YouGov B LV 1,156 Trump
42		 Biden
48		 +6% +5.6% -
7/26/20 7/18-7/24 CNN/SSRS B/C RV 927 Trump
40		 Biden
52		 +12% +10.8% -
7/24/20 7/22-7/22 Gravis Marketing C LV 754 Trump
42		 Biden
51		 +9% +8% -
7/23/20 7/18-7/20 Fox News A- RV 756 Trump
40		 Biden
49		 +9% +7.6% -
7/22/20 7/11-7/16 Spry Strategies B/C LV 700 Trump
49.6		 Biden
45.4		 +4.2% +3.8% -
7/18/20 7/9-7/10 Public Policy Polling B V 1,041 Trump
44		 Biden
51		 +7% +6.6% -
7/15/20 7/10-7/12 Change Research C- LV 824 Trump
42		 Biden
48		 +6% +4.8% -
7/1/20 6/26-6/27 Public Policy Polling B V 1,237 Trump
44		 Biden
50		 +6% +5.6% -
7/1/20 6/26-6/28 Change Research C- LV 699 Trump
43		 Biden
48		 +5% +3.8% -
6/25/20 6/14-6/16 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 826 Trump
36		 Biden
47		 +11% +11% -
6/25/20 6/17-6/20 Hodas & Associates LV 600 Trump
37.5		 Biden
55.5		 +18% +18% -
6/25/20 6/8-6/17 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ RV 610 Trump
36		 Biden
47		 +11% +11.4% -
6/22/20 6/16-6/18 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,101 Trump
45.3		 Biden
46.2		 +0.9% +1.9% -
6/17/20 6/12-6/14 Change Research C- LV 353 Trump
45		 Biden
47		 +2% +0.8% -
6/16/20 6/9-6/12 TIPP A/B LV 859 Trump
38		 Biden
51		 +13% +13.8% -
6/16/20 6/9-6/12 TIPP A/B RV 907 Trump
37		 Biden
50		 +13% +13.8% -
6/16/20 5/31-6/4 EPIC-MRA B+ LV 600 Trump
39		 Biden
55		 +16% +16.2% -
6/9/20 5/31-6/7 Kiaer Research LV 543 Trump
35		 Biden
50		 +15% +15% -
6/7/20 5/30-6/3 EPIC-MRA B+ LV 600 Trump
41		 Biden
53		 +12% +12.2% -
6/3/20 5/29-5/31 Change Research C- LV 620 Trump
46		 Biden
48		 +2% +0.8% -
6/1/20 5/29-5/30 Public Policy Polling B V 1,582 Trump
44		 Biden
50		 +6% +5.6% -
5/21/20 5/10-5/14 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 970 Trump
39		 Biden
47		 +8% +8% -
5/21/20 5/18-5/19 Public Policy Polling B V 1,234 Trump
45		 Biden
51		 +6% +5.6% -
5/21/20 5/11-5/17 Change Research C- LV 3,070 Trump
44.2		 Biden
46.7		 +2.5% +1.3% -
5/21/20 5/11-5/17 Change Research C- LV 3,070 Trump
46		 Biden
49		 +3% +1.8% -
5/21/20 5/1-5/5 Hodas & Associates LV 600 Trump
42.2		 Biden
51.8		 +9.7% +9.7% -
4/30/20 4/28-4/29 Public Policy Polling B V 1,270 Trump
42		 Biden
50		 +8% +7.6% -
4/24/20 4/9-4/11 Hodas & Associates LV 600 Trump
43.3		 Biden
49.7		 +6.3% +6.3% -
4/23/20 4/20-4/21 Public Policy Polling B V 1,277 Trump
44		 Biden
51		 +7% +6.6% -
4/23/20 4/15-4/20 Ipsos B- A 642 Trump
36		 Biden
45		 +9% +8.6% -
4/22/20 4/15-4/20 Ipsos B- RV 612 Trump
38		 Biden
46		 +8% +7.6% -
4/22/20 4/18-4/21 Fox News A- RV 801 Trump
41		 Biden
49		 +8% +6.6% -
4/13/20 4/6-4/8 Hart Research Associates B/C LV 303 Trump
41		 Biden
50		 +9% +7.6% -
4/3/20 3/30-4/1 Spry Strategies B/C LV 602 Trump
46.1		 Biden
45.8		 +0.3% +0.1% -
4/2/20 3/31-4/1 Public Policy Polling B V 1,019 Trump
45		 Biden
48		 +3% +2.6% -
3/27/20 3/12-3/16 Hodas & Associates LV 600 Trump
44.7		 Biden
51.8		 +7.2% +7.2% -
3/26/20 3/17-3/25 Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll) C/D RV 997 Trump
42.2		 Biden
47.3		 +5.1% +4.3% -
3/25/20 3/16-3/20 Marketing Resource Group (MRG) B/C LV 600 Trump
41		 Biden
44		 +3% +2.6% -
3/9/20 3/7-3/9 AtlasIntel B/C RV 1,100 Trump
45.5		 Biden
44.1		 +1.4% +1.4% -
3/9/20 3/6-3/8 YouGov B RV 566 Trump
41		 Biden
45		 +4% +3.6% -
3/9/20 3/5-3/8 Monmouth University A+ RV 977 Trump
41		 Biden
48		 +7% +5.6% -
3/9/20 3/5-3/7 Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus B/C LV 550 Trump
46.5		 Biden
44.3		 +2.2% +0.7% -
3/7/20 2/6-2/18 Expedition Strategies RV 500 Trump
43		 Biden
43		 0% 0% -
2/23/20 2/11-2/20 YouGov B RV 1,249 Trump
43		 Biden
47		 +4% +3.6% -
2/20/20 2/12-2/18 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 845 Trump
43		 Biden
47		 +4% +3.8% -
1/15/20 1/9-1/12 EPIC-MRA B+ LV 600 Trump
44		 Biden
50		 +6% +6.2% -
1/8/20 1/3-1/7 Glengariff Group B/C LV 600 Trump
43.2		 Biden
50.1		 +6.9% +6.5% -
12/9/19 12/3-12/5 Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus B/C LV 551 Trump
46.3		 Biden
40.9		 +5.4% +4% -
11/4/19 10/13-10/25 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 501 Trump
44.1		 Biden
45.4		 +1.3% +1.7% -
11/4/19 10/13-10/25 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ RV 501 Trump
44.7		 Biden
44.4		 +0.2% +0.2% -
11/3/19 10/31-11/3 Emerson College A- RV 1,051 Trump
44.2		 Biden
55.8		 +11.6% +11.2% -
9/30/19 9/25-9/26 Target Insyght C/D LV 804 Trump
35		 Biden
54		 +19% +19.6% -
9/12/19 9/7-9/9 Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus B/C LV 529 Trump
41		 Biden
42		 +1% +2.4% -
8/28/19 8/17-8/21 EPIC-MRA B+ LV 600 Trump
41		 Biden
51		 +10% +10.2% -
7/29/19 7/14-7/17 Climate Nexus RV 820 Trump
36		 Biden
49		 +13% +13% -
6/18/19 6/11-6/13 Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus B/C LV 587 Trump
43		 Biden
46		 +3% +4.4% -
6/14/19 6/8-6/12 EPIC-MRA B+ LV 600 Trump
41		 Biden
52		 +11% +11.2% -
6/4/19 5/28-5/30 Glengariff Group B/C LV 600 Trump
41.4		 Biden
53.3		 +11.9% +11.5% -
6/4/19 5/28-5/30 Glengariff Group B/C LV 600 Trump
38.5		 Biden
45.2		 +6.7% +6.3% -
5/11/19 4/27-4/30 WPA Intelligence B/C LV 200 Trump
42		 Biden
45		 +3% +3.8% -
3/26/19 3/19-3/21 Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus B/C LV 530 Trump
46		 Biden
45		 +1% +0.4% -
3/10/19 3/7-3/10 Emerson College A- RV 743 Trump
44.3		 Biden
51.8		 +7.5% +7.1% -
3/10/19 3/7-3/10 Emerson College A- RV 743 Trump
46.3		 Biden
53.7		 +7.4% +7% -
1/29/19 1/24-1/26 Glengariff Group B/C LV 600 Trump
40.3		 Biden
53.3		 +13% +12.6% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 47.5 47.3 +0.2%
2012 Romney v Obama 44.7 54.2 +9.5%
2008 McCain v Obama 41 57.4 +16.5%
2004 Bush v Kerry 47.8 51.2 +3.4%
2000 Bush v Gore 46.2 51.3 +5.1%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 1:01 AM EST
11/1
Michigan changed from Safe Biden to Likely Biden
10/31
Michigan changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden
9/10
Michigan changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
6/25
Michigan polls jumped 1.6% toward Biden (was D+7.1%, now D+8.7%)
6/16
Michigan polls jumped 2.2% toward Biden (was D+6.7%, now D+8.9%)