Minnesota

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 5/15 2:01 AM EDT
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Minnesota changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Minnesota Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
98.5%
Polls: 51% +8.5%
Trump
1.5%
Polls: 42.5%
98.5%
1.5%



Swing

 
+7%
From 2016 Results
+2.8%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.853 Testing Range: +/- 4.37%




Tipping Point



3.2%
of the time





Polls

 
51%
Biden (+8.5%)
42.5%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/23-11/1 Swayable D- LV 466 Trump
43.4		 Biden
52.7		 +9.3% +9.3% 0.45
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 Data for Progress B- LV 1,259 Trump
43		 Biden
51		 +8% +8% 1.09
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,727 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% 0.18
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,727 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% -
11/2/20 10/31-11/1 Research Co. B- LV 450 Trump
43		 Biden
52		 +9% +9.6% 1.06
11/2/20 10/22-10/31 Morning Consult B/C LV 883 Trump
42.4		 Biden
51.7		 +9.3% +9.1% 0.9
11/1/20 10/25-10/30 Targoz Market Research C/D LV 1,138 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +7.4% 0.8
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,935 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% 0.15
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,935 Trump
43		 Biden
54		 +11% +6% -
11/1/20 10/10-10/29 St. Cloud State University B/C A 372 Trump
39		 Biden
54		 +15% +14.6% 0.58
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,919 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% 0.12
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,919 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/31/20 10/29-10/30 Public Policy Polling B V 770 Trump
43		 Biden
54		 +11% +10.6% 1.03
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,011 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% 0.09
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,011 Trump
42		 Biden
54		 +12% +7% -
10/30/20 10/24-10/25 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,065 Trump
44.8		 Biden
48		 +3.2% +4.2% 0.72
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,498 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,498 Trump
43		 Biden
54		 +11% +6% -
10/28/20 10/23-10/27 SurveyUSA A LV 649 Trump
42		 Biden
47		 +5% +4.8% 0.95
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,252 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,252 Trump
43		 Biden
54		 +11% +6% -
10/27/20 10/24-10/26 Gravis Marketing C LV 657 Trump
39		 Biden
53		 +14% +13% 0.73
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,004 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,004 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,988 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,988 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,002 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,002 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,972 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,972 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,816 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,816 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% -
10/22/20 10/16-10/20 SurveyUSA A LV 625 Trump
42		 Biden
48		 +6% +5.8% 0.73
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 864 Trump
42		 Biden
51		 +9% +8.8% 0.52
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,750 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,750 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/21/20 10/17-10/20 Civiqs B/C LV 840 Trump
43		 Biden
53		 +10% +10% 0.61
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,696 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,696 Trump
43		 Biden
54		 +11% +6% -
10/20/20 10/12-10/15 Change Research C- LV 1,021 Trump
44		 Biden
49		 +5% +3.8% 0.35
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,544 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,544 Trump
43		 Biden
54		 +11% +6% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,503 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,503 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,440 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,440 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,198 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,198 Trump
43		 Biden
54		 +11% +6% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,868 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,868 Trump
43		 Biden
54		 +11% +6% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,675 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,675 Trump
43		 Biden
54		 +11% +6% -
10/14/20 10/10-10/13 David Binder Research B/C LV 200 Trump
41		 Biden
52		 +11% +11% 0.39
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,525 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,525 Trump
43		 Biden
54		 +11% +6% -
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 Morning Consult B/C LV 898 Trump
44		 Biden
50		 +6% +5.8% 0.3
10/7/20 10/1-10/6 SurveyUSA A LV 929 Trump
40		 Biden
47		 +7% +6.8% 0.41
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 860 Trump
41.3		 Biden
57.1		 +15.8% +10.8% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 860 Trump
41.8		 Biden
56.8		 +15% +10% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,288 Trump
46.6		 Biden
50.6		 +4.1% +0.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,288 Trump
46.7		 Biden
51.1		 +4.4% +0.6% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,939 Trump
42.9		 Biden
55.3		 +12.3% +7.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,939 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,808 Trump
43.9		 Biden
53.9		 +10% +5% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,808 Trump
43.5		 Biden
54.7		 +11.2% +6.2% -
9/26/20 9/21-9/23 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ LV 800 Trump
42		 Biden
48		 +6% +6.6% 0.14
9/25/20 9/20-9/24 Suffolk University A LV 500 Trump
40.2		 Biden
46.6		 +6.4% +5.8% 0.24
9/20/20 9/12-9/17 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 718 Trump
42		 Biden
51		 +9% +9% -
9/16/20 9/8-9/13 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ LV 615 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +15.4% 0.18
9/16/20 9/8-9/13 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ RV 705 Trump
40		 Biden
57		 +17% +16.4% -
9/15/20 9/4-9/13 Morning Consult B/C LV 643 Trump
44		 Biden
48		 +4% +3.8% -
9/15/20 5/27-6/5 Morning Consult B/C LV 600 Trump
45		 Biden
48		 +3% +2.8% -
9/15/20 5/7-5/16 Morning Consult B/C LV 600 Trump
38		 Biden
55		 +17% +16.8% -
9/13/20 9/9-9/11 YouGov B LV 1,087 Trump
41		 Biden
50		 +9% +8.6% -
9/12/20 9/8-9/10 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 814 Trump
41		 Biden
50		 +9% +9.4% 0.17
9/9/20 9/4-9/7 SurveyUSA A LV 553 Trump
40.1		 Biden
48.8		 +8.7% +8.5% 0.08
9/9/20 8/29-9/7 Morning Consult B/C LV 649 Trump
44		 Biden
49		 +5% +4.8% -
9/4/20 9/3-9/4 Public Policy Polling B V 877 Trump
44		 Biden
52		 +8% +7.6% -
9/4/20 5/26-5/28 Harper Polling B/C LV 510 Trump
42		 Biden
50		 +8% +7.8% -
9/3/20 8/30-9/1 Harper Polling B/C LV 501 Trump
45		 Biden
48		 +3% +2.8% -
9/1/20 8/21-8/30 Morning Consult B/C LV 647 Trump
43		 Biden
50		 +7% +6.8% -
9/1/20 8/7-8/16 Morning Consult B/C LV 615 Trump
42		 Biden
50		 +8% +7.8% -
8/19/20 8/15-8/18 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,141 Trump
46.5		 Biden
46.9		 +0.4% +1.4% -
8/11/20 8/8-8/10 Emerson College A- LV 733 Trump
49		 Biden
51		 +2% +1.6% -
8/6/20 7/30-7/31 David Binder Research B/C LV 200 Trump
36		 Biden
54		 +18% +18% -
7/31/20 7/22-7/23 Public Policy Polling B V 1,218 Trump
42		 Biden
52		 +10% +9.6% -
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 647 Trump
42		 Biden
49		 +7% +6.8% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 662 Trump
44		 Biden
47		 +3% +2.8% -
7/27/20 7/23-7/25 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,129 Trump
44.2		 Biden
49.2		 +5% +6% -
7/23/20 7/18-7/20 Fox News A- RV 776 Trump
38		 Biden
51		 +13% +11.6% -
6/20/20 6/19-6/19 Gravis Marketing C RV 600 Trump
42		 Biden
58		 +16% +15% -
5/24/20 5/18-5/20 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ RV 800 Trump
44		 Biden
49		 +5% +5.6% -
10/21/19 10/14-10/16 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ RV 800 Trump
38		 Biden
50		 +12% +12.6% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 44.9 46.4 +1.5%
2012 Romney v Obama 45 52.7 +7.7%
2008 McCain v Obama 43.8 54.1 +10.2%
2004 Bush v Kerry 47.6 51.1 +3.5%
2000 Bush v Gore 45.5 47.9 +2.4%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 12:07 AM EDT
11/2
Minnesota changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden
7/31
Minnesota changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
7/28
Minnesota changed from Likely Biden to Lean Biden
7/27
Minnesota changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
7/26
Minnesota changed from Likely Biden to Lean Biden