Minnesota

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Likely Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
95%
Polls: 50.3% +8.6%
Trump
5%
Polls: 41.7%
95%
5%



Swing

 
+7.1%
From 2016 Results
+2.9%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.239 Testing Range: +/- 5.24%




Tipping Point



3.3%
of the time





Polls

 
50.3%
Biden (+8.6%)
41.7%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,252 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% 0.08
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,252 Trump
43		 Biden
54		 +11% +6% -
10/27/20 10/24-10/26 Gravis Marketing C LV 657 Trump
39		 Biden
53		 +14% +13% 0.98
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,004 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,004 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,988 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,988 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,002 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,002 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,972 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,972 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,816 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,816 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% -
10/22/20 10/16-10/20 SurveyUSA A LV 625 Trump
42		 Biden
48		 +6% +5.8% 0.93
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 864 Trump
42		 Biden
51		 +9% +8.8% 0.7
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,750 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,750 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/21/20 10/17-10/20 Civiqs B/C LV 840 Trump
43		 Biden
53		 +10% +10% 0.8
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,696 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,696 Trump
43		 Biden
54		 +11% +6% -
10/20/20 10/12-10/15 Change Research C- LV 1,021 Trump
44		 Biden
49		 +5% +3.8% 0.53
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,544 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,544 Trump
43		 Biden
54		 +11% +6% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,503 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,503 Trump
42		 Biden
55		 +13% +8% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,440 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,440 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,198 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,198 Trump
43		 Biden
54		 +11% +6% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,868 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,868 Trump
43		 Biden
54		 +11% +6% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,675 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,675 Trump
43		 Biden
54		 +11% +6% -
10/14/20 10/10-10/13 David Binder Research B/C LV 200 Trump
41		 Biden
52		 +11% +11% 0.55
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,525 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,525 Trump
43		 Biden
54		 +11% +6% -
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 Morning Consult B/C LV 898 Trump
44		 Biden
50		 +6% +5.8% 0.45
10/7/20 10/1-10/6 SurveyUSA A LV 929 Trump
40		 Biden
47		 +7% +6.8% 0.54
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 860 Trump
41.3		 Biden
57.1		 +15.8% +10.8% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 860 Trump
41.8		 Biden
56.8		 +15% +10% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,288 Trump
46.6		 Biden
50.6		 +4.1% +0.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,288 Trump
46.7		 Biden
51.1		 +4.4% +0.6% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,939 Trump
42.9		 Biden
55.3		 +12.3% +7.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,939 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,808 Trump
43.9		 Biden
53.9		 +10% +5% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,808 Trump
43.5		 Biden
54.7		 +11.2% +6.2% -
9/26/20 9/21-9/23 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ LV 800 Trump
42		 Biden
48		 +6% +6.6% 0.28
9/25/20 9/20-9/24 Suffolk University A LV 500 Trump
40.2		 Biden
46.6		 +6.4% +5.8% 0.35
9/20/20 9/12-9/17 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 718 Trump
42		 Biden
51		 +9% +9% -
9/16/20 9/8-9/13 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ LV 615 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +15.4% 0.26
9/16/20 9/8-9/13 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ RV 705 Trump
40		 Biden
57		 +17% +16.4% -
9/15/20 9/4-9/13 Morning Consult B/C LV 643 Trump
44		 Biden
48		 +4% +3.8% -
9/15/20 5/27-6/5 Morning Consult B/C LV 600 Trump
45		 Biden
48		 +3% +2.8% -
9/15/20 5/7-5/16 Morning Consult B/C LV 600 Trump
38		 Biden
55		 +17% +16.8% -
9/13/20 9/9-9/11 YouGov B LV 1,087 Trump
41		 Biden
50		 +9% +8.6% 0.12
9/12/20 9/8-9/10 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 814 Trump
41		 Biden
50		 +9% +9.4% 0.25
9/9/20 9/4-9/7 SurveyUSA A LV 553 Trump
40.1		 Biden
48.8		 +8.7% +8.5% 0.18
9/9/20 8/29-9/7 Morning Consult B/C LV 649 Trump
44		 Biden
49		 +5% +4.8% -
9/4/20 9/3-9/4 Public Policy Polling B V 877 Trump
44		 Biden
52		 +8% +7.6% 0.13
9/4/20 5/26-5/28 Harper Polling B/C LV 510 Trump
42		 Biden
50		 +8% +7.8% -
9/3/20 8/30-9/1 Harper Polling B/C LV 501 Trump
45		 Biden
48		 +3% +2.8% -
9/1/20 8/21-8/30 Morning Consult B/C LV 647 Trump
43		 Biden
50		 +7% +6.8% -
9/1/20 8/7-8/16 Morning Consult B/C LV 615 Trump
42		 Biden
50		 +8% +7.8% -
8/19/20 8/15-8/18 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,141 Trump
46.5		 Biden
46.9		 +0.4% +1.4% -
8/11/20 8/8-8/10 Emerson College A- LV 733 Trump
49		 Biden
51		 +2% +1.6% -
8/6/20 7/30-7/31 David Binder Research B/C LV 200 Trump
36		 Biden
54		 +18% +18% -
7/31/20 7/22-7/23 Public Policy Polling B V 1,218 Trump
42		 Biden
52		 +10% +9.6% -
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 647 Trump
42		 Biden
49		 +7% +6.8% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 662 Trump
44		 Biden
47		 +3% +2.8% -
7/27/20 7/23-7/25 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,129 Trump
44.2		 Biden
49.2		 +5% +6% -
7/23/20 7/18-7/20 Fox News A- RV 776 Trump
38		 Biden
51		 +13% +11.6% 0.09
6/20/20 6/19-6/19 Gravis Marketing C RV 600 Trump
42		 Biden
58		 +16% +15% -
5/24/20 5/18-5/20 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ RV 800 Trump
44		 Biden
49		 +5% +5.6% -
10/21/19 10/14-10/16 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ RV 800 Trump
38		 Biden
50		 +12% +12.6% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 44.9 46.4 +1.5%
2012 Romney v Obama 45 52.7 +7.7%
2008 McCain v Obama 43.8 54.1 +10.2%
2004 Bush v Kerry 47.6 51.1 +3.5%
2000 Bush v Gore 45.5 47.9 +2.4%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 10:33 AM EDT
7/31
Minnesota changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
7/28
Minnesota changed from Likely Biden to Lean Biden
7/27
Minnesota changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
7/26
Minnesota changed from Likely Biden to Lean Biden
7/25
Minnesota changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden