Minnesota
Live Election Night Forecast
Last Updated: 1/26 1:57 PM ESTElection Night Forecast Changes
Here you can see how the forecast has in Minnesota changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.
Minnesota Pre-Election Forecast
Safe Biden
Win Probability
Swing
+7%
From 2016 Results
+2.8%
From 2016 Polls
Polls
51%
Biden
(+8.5%)
42.5%
Trump
Date | Pollster | Rating | Voters | Sample Size | Republican | Democrat | Diff | Diff (Adj) | Weight |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11/2/20 10/23-11/1 | Swayable | D- | LV | 466 | Trump 43.4 |
Biden 52.7 |
+9.3% | +9.3% | 0.45 |
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 | Data for Progress | B- | LV | 1,259 | Trump 43 |
Biden 51 |
+8% | +8% | 1.09 |
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,727 | Trump 42 |
Biden 56 |
+14% | +9% | 0.18 |
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,727 | Trump 42 |
Biden 55 |
+13% | +8% | - |
11/2/20 10/31-11/1 | Research Co. | B- | LV | 450 | Trump 43 |
Biden 52 |
+9% | +9.6% | 1.06 |
11/2/20 10/22-10/31 | Morning Consult | B/C | LV | 883 | Trump 42.4 |
Biden 51.7 |
+9.3% | +9.1% | 0.9 |
11/1/20 10/25-10/30 | Targoz Market Research | C/D | LV | 1,138 | Trump 44 |
Biden 53 |
+9% | +7.4% | 0.8 |
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,935 | Trump 43 |
Biden 55 |
+12% | +7% | 0.15 |
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,935 | Trump 43 |
Biden 54 |
+11% | +6% | - |
11/1/20 10/10-10/29 | St. Cloud State University | B/C | A | 372 | Trump 39 |
Biden 54 |
+15% | +14.6% | 0.58 |
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,919 | Trump 42 |
Biden 55 |
+13% | +8% | 0.12 |
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,919 | Trump 43 |
Biden 55 |
+12% | +7% | - |
10/31/20 10/29-10/30 | Public Policy Polling | B | V | 770 | Trump 43 |
Biden 54 |
+11% | +10.6% | 1.03 |
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 3,011 | Trump 42 |
Biden 55 |
+13% | +8% | 0.09 |
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 3,011 | Trump 42 |
Biden 54 |
+12% | +7% | - |
10/30/20 10/24-10/25 | Trafalgar Group | C- | LV | 1,065 | Trump 44.8 |
Biden 48 |
+3.2% | +4.2% | 0.72 |
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 5,498 | Trump 42 |
Biden 55 |
+13% | +8% | - |
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 5,498 | Trump 43 |
Biden 54 |
+11% | +6% | - |
10/28/20 10/23-10/27 | SurveyUSA | A | LV | 649 | Trump 42 |
Biden 47 |
+5% | +4.8% | 0.95 |
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 5,252 | Trump 43 |
Biden 55 |
+12% | +7% | - |
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 5,252 | Trump 43 |
Biden 54 |
+11% | +6% | - |
10/27/20 10/24-10/26 | Gravis Marketing | C | LV | 657 | Trump 39 |
Biden 53 |
+14% | +13% | 0.73 |
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 5,004 | Trump 42 |
Biden 56 |
+14% | +9% | - |
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 5,004 | Trump 42 |
Biden 55 |
+13% | +8% | - |
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 4,988 | Trump 42 |
Biden 56 |
+14% | +9% | - |
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 4,988 | Trump 42 |
Biden 55 |
+13% | +8% | - |
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 5,002 | Trump 42 |
Biden 56 |
+14% | +9% | - |
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 5,002 | Trump 42 |
Biden 55 |
+13% | +8% | - |
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 4,972 | Trump 42 |
Biden 56 |
+14% | +9% | - |
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 4,972 | Trump 43 |
Biden 55 |
+12% | +7% | - |
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 4,816 | Trump 42 |
Biden 56 |
+14% | +9% | - |
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 4,816 | Trump 42 |
Biden 55 |
+13% | +8% | - |
10/22/20 10/16-10/20 | SurveyUSA | A | LV | 625 | Trump 42 |
Biden 48 |
+6% | +5.8% | 0.73 |
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 | Morning Consult | B/C | LV | 864 | Trump 42 |
Biden 51 |
+9% | +8.8% | 0.52 |
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 4,750 | Trump 42 |
Biden 56 |
+14% | +9% | - |
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 4,750 | Trump 43 |
Biden 55 |
+12% | +7% | - |
10/21/20 10/17-10/20 | Civiqs | B/C | LV | 840 | Trump 43 |
Biden 53 |
+10% | +10% | 0.61 |
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 4,696 | Trump 43 |
Biden 55 |
+12% | +7% | - |
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 4,696 | Trump 43 |
Biden 54 |
+11% | +6% | - |
10/20/20 10/12-10/15 | Change Research | C- | LV | 1,021 | Trump 44 |
Biden 49 |
+5% | +3.8% | 0.35 |
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 4,544 | Trump 42 |
Biden 56 |
+14% | +9% | - |
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 4,544 | Trump 43 |
Biden 54 |
+11% | +6% | - |
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 4,503 | Trump 42 |
Biden 56 |
+14% | +9% | - |
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 4,503 | Trump 42 |
Biden 55 |
+13% | +8% | - |
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 4,440 | Trump 42 |
Biden 56 |
+14% | +9% | - |
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 4,440 | Trump 43 |
Biden 55 |
+12% | +7% | - |
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 4,198 | Trump 43 |
Biden 55 |
+12% | +7% | - |
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 4,198 | Trump 43 |
Biden 54 |
+11% | +6% | - |
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 3,868 | Trump 42 |
Biden 56 |
+14% | +9% | - |
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 3,868 | Trump 43 |
Biden 54 |
+11% | +6% | - |
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 3,675 | Trump 42 |
Biden 56 |
+14% | +9% | - |
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 3,675 | Trump 43 |
Biden 54 |
+11% | +6% | - |
10/14/20 10/10-10/13 | David Binder Research | B/C | LV | 200 | Trump 41 |
Biden 52 |
+11% | +11% | 0.39 |
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 3,525 | Trump 43 |
Biden 55 |
+12% | +7% | - |
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 3,525 | Trump 43 |
Biden 54 |
+11% | +6% | - |
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 | Morning Consult | B/C | LV | 898 | Trump 44 |
Biden 50 |
+6% | +5.8% | 0.3 |
10/7/20 10/1-10/6 | SurveyUSA | A | LV | 929 | Trump 40 |
Biden 47 |
+7% | +6.8% | 0.41 |
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 860 | Trump 41.3 |
Biden 57.1 |
+15.8% | +10.8% | - |
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 860 | Trump 41.8 |
Biden 56.8 |
+15% | +10% | - |
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,288 | Trump 46.6 |
Biden 50.6 |
+4.1% | +0.9% | - |
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,288 | Trump 46.7 |
Biden 51.1 |
+4.4% | +0.6% | - |
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,939 | Trump 42.9 |
Biden 55.3 |
+12.3% | +7.3% | - |
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,939 | Trump 43 |
Biden 56 |
+13% | +8% | - |
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,808 | Trump 43.9 |
Biden 53.9 |
+10% | +5% | - |
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,808 | Trump 43.5 |
Biden 54.7 |
+11.2% | +6.2% | - |
9/26/20 9/21-9/23 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | B+ | LV | 800 | Trump 42 |
Biden 48 |
+6% | +6.6% | 0.14 |
9/25/20 9/20-9/24 | Suffolk University | A | LV | 500 | Trump 40.2 |
Biden 46.6 |
+6.4% | +5.8% | 0.24 |
9/20/20 9/12-9/17 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | LV | 718 | Trump 42 |
Biden 51 |
+9% | +9% | - | |
9/16/20 9/8-9/13 | ABC News/The Washington Post | A+ | LV | 615 | Trump 41 |
Biden 57 |
+16% | +15.4% | 0.18 |
9/16/20 9/8-9/13 | ABC News/The Washington Post | A+ | RV | 705 | Trump 40 |
Biden 57 |
+17% | +16.4% | - |
9/15/20 9/4-9/13 | Morning Consult | B/C | LV | 643 | Trump 44 |
Biden 48 |
+4% | +3.8% | - |
9/15/20 5/27-6/5 | Morning Consult | B/C | LV | 600 | Trump 45 |
Biden 48 |
+3% | +2.8% | - |
9/15/20 5/7-5/16 | Morning Consult | B/C | LV | 600 | Trump 38 |
Biden 55 |
+17% | +16.8% | - |
9/13/20 9/9-9/11 | YouGov | B | LV | 1,087 | Trump 41 |
Biden 50 |
+9% | +8.6% | - |
9/12/20 9/8-9/10 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | A+ | LV | 814 | Trump 41 |
Biden 50 |
+9% | +9.4% | 0.17 |
9/9/20 9/4-9/7 | SurveyUSA | A | LV | 553 | Trump 40.1 |
Biden 48.8 |
+8.7% | +8.5% | 0.08 |
9/9/20 8/29-9/7 | Morning Consult | B/C | LV | 649 | Trump 44 |
Biden 49 |
+5% | +4.8% | - |
9/4/20 9/3-9/4 | Public Policy Polling | B | V | 877 | Trump 44 |
Biden 52 |
+8% | +7.6% | - |
9/4/20 5/26-5/28 | Harper Polling | B/C | LV | 510 | Trump 42 |
Biden 50 |
+8% | +7.8% | - |
9/3/20 8/30-9/1 | Harper Polling | B/C | LV | 501 | Trump 45 |
Biden 48 |
+3% | +2.8% | - |
9/1/20 8/21-8/30 | Morning Consult | B/C | LV | 647 | Trump 43 |
Biden 50 |
+7% | +6.8% | - |
9/1/20 8/7-8/16 | Morning Consult | B/C | LV | 615 | Trump 42 |
Biden 50 |
+8% | +7.8% | - |
8/19/20 8/15-8/18 | Trafalgar Group | C- | LV | 1,141 | Trump 46.5 |
Biden 46.9 |
+0.4% | +1.4% | - |
8/11/20 8/8-8/10 | Emerson College | A- | LV | 733 | Trump 49 |
Biden 51 |
+2% | +1.6% | - |
8/6/20 7/30-7/31 | David Binder Research | B/C | LV | 200 | Trump 36 |
Biden 54 |
+18% | +18% | - |
7/31/20 7/22-7/23 | Public Policy Polling | B | V | 1,218 | Trump 42 |
Biden 52 |
+10% | +9.6% | - |
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 | Morning Consult | B/C | LV | 647 | Trump 42 |
Biden 49 |
+7% | +6.8% | - |
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 | Morning Consult | B/C | LV | 662 | Trump 44 |
Biden 47 |
+3% | +2.8% | - |
7/27/20 7/23-7/25 | Trafalgar Group | C- | LV | 1,129 | Trump 44.2 |
Biden 49.2 |
+5% | +6% | - |
7/23/20 7/18-7/20 | Fox News | A- | RV | 776 | Trump 38 |
Biden 51 |
+13% | +11.6% | - |
6/20/20 6/19-6/19 | Gravis Marketing | C | RV | 600 | Trump 42 |
Biden 58 |
+16% | +15% | - |
5/24/20 5/18-5/20 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | B+ | RV | 800 | Trump 44 |
Biden 49 |
+5% | +5.6% | - |
10/21/19 10/14-10/16 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | B+ | RV | 800 | Trump 38 |
Biden 50 |
+12% | +12.6% | - |
Past Results
Year | Candidates | Republican | Democrat | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | Trump v Clinton | 44.9 | 46.4 | +1.5% |
2012 | Romney v Obama | 45 | 52.7 | +7.7% |
2008 | McCain v Obama | 43.8 | 54.1 | +10.2% |
2004 | Bush v Kerry | 47.6 | 51.1 | +3.5% |
2000 | Bush v Gore | 45.5 | 47.9 | +2.4% |
Updates
Last Updated: 11/3 12:07 AM EST11/2
7/31
7/28
7/27
7/26