Minnesota

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 6/29 11:28 AM EDT
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Minnesota changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





Minnesota Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Lean Biden

Win Probability
(with same polling error as 2016)

This version of the model assumes the same polling error (polls on election day vs actual result) as 2016.
In Minnesota the polls are shifted 4.2% more Republican.

Biden
Trump
Biden
76.6%
Polls: 48.6% +4.2%
Trump
23.4%
Polls: 44.4%
76.6%
23.4%



Swing

 
+2.7%
From 2016 Results
+2.7%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.31 Testing Range: +/- 5.37%




Tipping Point



5.4%
of the time





Polls

 
48.6%
Biden (+4.2%)
44.4%
Trump
 



Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 11:32 AM EDT
10/14
Minnesota changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden
10/3
Minnesota changed from Lean Biden to Toss Up
9/16
Minnesota changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden
9/15
Minnesota changed from Lean Biden to Toss Up
9/12
Minnesota changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden