Mississippi

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 12/10 11:48 AM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Mississippi changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Mississippi Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 38.9%
Trump
100%
Polls: 57.8% +18.9%
100%



Swing

 
+1.1%
From 2016 Results
+1%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
38.9%
Biden
57.8%
Trump (+18.9%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 Data for Progress B- LV 562 Trump
55		 Biden
41		 +14% +14% 1
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,336 Trump
61		 Biden
37		 +24% +29% 0.25
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,336 Trump
55		 Biden
42		 +13% +18% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,369 Trump
61		 Biden
37		 +24% +29% 0.23
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,369 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,346 Trump
62		 Biden
37		 +25% +30% 0.21
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,346 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,342 Trump
61		 Biden
37		 +24% +29% 0.18
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,342 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,116 Trump
62		 Biden
37		 +25% +30% 0.06
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,116 Trump
56		 Biden
43		 +13% +18% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,900 Trump
62		 Biden
37		 +25% +30% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,900 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/27/20 10/23-10/26 Civiqs B/C LV 507 Trump
55		 Biden
41		 +14% +14% 0.81
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,725 Trump
62		 Biden
37		 +25% +30% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,725 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,705 Trump
62		 Biden
37		 +25% +30% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,705 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,674 Trump
62		 Biden
37		 +25% +30% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,674 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,612 Trump
61		 Biden
37		 +24% +29% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,612 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,541 Trump
61		 Biden
37		 +24% +29% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,541 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,495 Trump
61		 Biden
38		 +23% +28% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,495 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,442 Trump
60		 Biden
39		 +21% +26% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,442 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,404 Trump
60		 Biden
39		 +21% +26% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,404 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,383 Trump
60		 Biden
39		 +21% +26% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,383 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,359 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,359 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,290 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,290 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,182 Trump
60		 Biden
39		 +21% +26% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,182 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,118 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,118 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,063 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,063 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 425 Trump
55.7		 Biden
41.5		 +14.2% +19.2% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 425 Trump
62.9		 Biden
34.7		 +28.1% +33.1% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 733 Trump
53.9		 Biden
43.9		 +10% +15% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 733 Trump
59.3		 Biden
39.1		 +20.3% +25.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 607 Trump
54.7		 Biden
41.3		 +13.3% +18.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 607 Trump
61		 Biden
36		 +25% +30% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 782 Trump
49.1		 Biden
49.4		 +0.3% +4.8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 782 Trump
54.9		 Biden
44.1		 +10.8% +15.8% -
9/21/20 8/28-8/30 The Tyson Group B/C LV 600 Trump
50		 Biden
40		 +10% +10% -
8/13/20 7/30-8/9 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group B/C LV 600 Trump
53		 Biden
43		 +10% +11.4% -
6/16/20 6/2-6/4 Millsaps College/Chism Strategies LV 568 Trump
50.4		 Biden
40.6		 +9.8% +9.8% -
4/20/20 4/8-4/9 Millsaps College/Chism Strategies LV 508 Trump
48.7		 Biden
38.1		 +10.6% +10.6% -
3/5/20 2/26-2/28 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ RV 625 Trump
56		 Biden
41		 +15% +14.4% 0.05


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 57.9 40.1 +17.8%
2012 Romney v Obama 55.3 43.8 +11.5%
2008 McCain v Obama 56.2 43 +13.2%
2004 Bush v Kerry 59.5 39.8 +19.7%
2000 Bush v Gore 57.6 40.7 +16.9%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 9:40 AM EDT
11/2
Mississippi polls jumped 2.5% toward Biden (was R+21.7%, now R+19.2%)
10/27
Mississippi polls jumped 8.2% toward Biden (was R+27.1%, now R+18.9%)
10/13
Mississippi polls jumped 2.3% toward Trump (was R+16.5%, now R+18.8%)
10/3
Mississippi polls jumped 6% toward Biden (was R+21.3%, now R+15.3%)
9/21
Mississippi polls jumped 3.5% toward Biden (was R+22.6%, now R+19.1%)