Missouri

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Likely Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
2.2%
Polls: 44.5%
Trump
97.8%
Polls: 52.1% +7.6%
2.2%
97.8%



Swing

 
+11.1%
From 2016 Results
+0.8%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.219 Testing Range: +/- 5.16%






Polls

 
44.5%
Biden
52.1%
Trump (+7.6%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,314 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% 0.11
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,314 Trump
52
Biden
46
+6% +11% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,283 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% 0.09
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,283 Trump
52
Biden
46
+6% +11% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,274 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% 0.07
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,274 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,257 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,257 Trump
52
Biden
46
+6% +11% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,216 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,216 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,103 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,103 Trump
52
Biden
46
+6% +11% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,955 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,955 Trump
51
Biden
46
+5% +10% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,869 Trump
52
Biden
46
+6% +11% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,869 Trump
51
Biden
46
+5% +10% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,781 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,781 Trump
51
Biden
46
+5% +10% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,702 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,702 Trump
51
Biden
46
+5% +10% -
10/17/20 10/14-10/15 Remington Research Group C- LV 1,010 Trump
51
Biden
45
+6% +7.2% 0.59
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,507 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,507 Trump
51
Biden
46
+5% +10% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,273 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,273 Trump
51
Biden
46
+5% +10% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,136 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,136 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,018 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,018 Trump
51
Biden
45
+6% +11% -
10/13/20 9/24-10/7 YouGov B LV 931 Trump
51.8
Biden
43.2
+8.6% +9% 0.41
10/7/20 9/28-10/2 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group B/C LV 600 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +3.4% 0.35
10/3/20 9/30-10/1 Remington Research Group C- LV 980 Trump
51
Biden
46
+5% +6.2% 0.26
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 868 Trump
50.5
Biden
47.7
+2.8% +7.8% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 868 Trump
51.4
Biden
47.2
+4.2% +9.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,261 Trump
53.2
Biden
44.4
+8.7% +13.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,261 Trump
53.9
Biden
44.1
+9.9% +14.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,863 Trump
52.7
Biden
45
+7.6% +12.6% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,863 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,157 Trump
51
Biden
45.9
+5% +10% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,157 Trump
52.9
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
9/19/20 9/16-9/17 Remington Research Group C- LV 1,046 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +9.2% 0.06
9/8/20 9/1-9/3 We Ask America C LV 500 Trump
49
Biden
44
+5% +4.2% -
8/31/20 8/26-8/28 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,015 Trump
51.9
Biden
41.2
+10.7% +9.7% -
7/13/20 6/23-7/1 YouGov B LV 900 Trump
49.6
Biden
42.5
+7.1% +7.5% -
6/30/20 6/16-6/22 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group B/C LV 800 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +0.6% -
6/13/20 6/10-6/11 Remington Research Group C- LV 1,152 Trump
51
Biden
43
+8% +9.2% -
5/28/20 5/26-5/27 We Ask America C LV 500 Trump
48
Biden
44
+4% +3.2% -
2/29/20 2/26-2/27 Remington Research Group C- LV 1,050 Trump
52
Biden
42
+10% +11.2% -
1/29/20 1/20-1/22 American Viewpoint B/C LV 1,200 Trump
50
Biden
43
+7% +6.2% -
9/22/19 9/18-9/19 Remington Research Group C- LV 1,046 Trump
53
Biden
42
+11% +12.2% -
8/26/19 4/10-4/11 Remington Research Group C- LV 955 Trump
51
Biden
43
+8% +9.2% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 56.8 38.1 +18.6%
2012 Romney v Obama 53.8 44.4 +9.4%
2008 McCain v Obama 49.4 49.3 +0.1%
2004 Bush v Kerry 53.3 46.1 +7.2%
2000 Bush v Gore 50.4 47.1 +3.3%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 9:37 AM EDT
10/28
Missouri changed from Safe Trump to Likely Trump
10/17
Missouri changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
9/8
Missouri polls jumped 2.1% toward Biden (was R+8.7%, now R+6.6%)
8/31
Missouri polls jumped 2% toward Trump (was R+6.9%, now R+8.9%)
Missouri changed from Lean Trump to Likely Trump