Missouri

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/5 10:28 PM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Missouri changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Missouri Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 43.4%
Trump
100%
Polls: 52.8% +9.4%
100%



Swing

 
+9.3%
From 2016 Results
+1%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.644 Testing Range: +/- 3.85%






Polls

 
43.4%
Biden
52.8%
Trump (+9.4%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/23-11/1 Swayable D- LV 487 Trump
54.6		 Biden
43.4		 +11.2% +11.2% 0.51
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,644 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% 0.25
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,644 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
11/2/20 10/22-10/31 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,109 Trump
52.3		 Biden
42.9		 +9.4% +9.6% 0.94
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,849 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% 0.22
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,849 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,835 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% 0.19
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,835 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
10/31/20 10/28-10/29 Remington Research Group C- LV 1,010 Trump
50		 Biden
45		 +5% +6.2% 0.91
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,770 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% 0.17
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,770 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,759 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,759 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,573 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,573 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,314 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,314 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,283 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,283 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,274 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,274 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,257 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,257 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,216 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,216 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,103 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,103 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,955 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,955 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,869 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,869 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,781 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,781 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,702 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,702 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/17/20 10/14-10/15 Remington Research Group C- LV 1,010 Trump
51		 Biden
45		 +6% +7.2% 0.44
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,507 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,507 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,273 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,273 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,136 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,136 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,018 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,018 Trump
51		 Biden
45		 +6% +11% -
10/13/20 9/24-10/7 YouGov B LV 931 Trump
51.8		 Biden
43.2		 +8.6% +9% 0.32
10/7/20 9/28-10/2 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group B/C LV 600 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +3.4% 0.24
10/3/20 9/30-10/1 Remington Research Group C- LV 980 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +6.2% 0.14
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 868 Trump
50.5		 Biden
47.7		 +2.8% +7.8% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 868 Trump
51.4		 Biden
47.2		 +4.2% +9.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,261 Trump
53.2		 Biden
44.4		 +8.7% +13.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,261 Trump
53.9		 Biden
44.1		 +9.9% +14.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,863 Trump
52.7		 Biden
45		 +7.6% +12.6% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,863 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,157 Trump
51		 Biden
45.9		 +5% +10% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,157 Trump
52.9		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
9/19/20 9/16-9/17 Remington Research Group C- LV 1,046 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +9.2% -
9/8/20 9/1-9/3 We Ask America C LV 500 Trump
49		 Biden
44		 +5% +4.2% -
8/31/20 8/26-8/28 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,015 Trump
51.9		 Biden
41.2		 +10.7% +9.7% -
7/13/20 6/23-7/1 YouGov B LV 900 Trump
49.6		 Biden
42.5		 +7.1% +7.5% -
6/30/20 6/16-6/22 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group B/C LV 800 Trump
46		 Biden
48		 +2% +0.6% -
6/13/20 6/10-6/11 Remington Research Group C- LV 1,152 Trump
51		 Biden
43		 +8% +9.2% -
5/28/20 5/26-5/27 We Ask America C LV 500 Trump
48		 Biden
44		 +4% +3.2% -
2/29/20 2/26-2/27 Remington Research Group C- LV 1,050 Trump
52		 Biden
42		 +10% +11.2% -
1/29/20 1/20-1/22 American Viewpoint B/C LV 1,200 Trump
50		 Biden
43		 +7% +6.2% -
9/22/19 9/18-9/19 Remington Research Group C- LV 1,046 Trump
53		 Biden
42		 +11% +12.2% -
8/26/19 4/10-4/11 Remington Research Group C- LV 955 Trump
51		 Biden
43		 +8% +9.2% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 56.8 38.1 +18.6%
2012 Romney v Obama 53.8 44.4 +9.4%
2008 McCain v Obama 49.4 49.3 +0.1%
2004 Bush v Kerry 53.3 46.1 +7.2%
2000 Bush v Gore 50.4 47.1 +3.3%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 12:23 AM EDT
10/17
Missouri changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
9/8
Missouri polls jumped 2.1% toward Biden (was R+8.7%, now R+6.6%)
8/31
Missouri polls jumped 2% toward Trump (was R+6.9%, now R+8.9%)
Missouri changed from Lean Trump to Likely Trump
4/23
Missouri changed from Toss Up to Lean Trump
4/22
Missouri changed from Lean Trump to Toss Up