Montana

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/24 3:28 PM EST
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Montana changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Montana Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 44.5%
Trump
100%
Polls: 51.1% +6.6%
100%



Swing

 
+13.8%
From 2016 Results
+8.2%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.652 Testing Range: +/- 3.9%






Polls

 
44.5%
Biden
51.1%
Trump (+6.6%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/29-11/2 Change Research C- LV 920 Trump
50		 Biden
45		 +5% +6.2% 0.98
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 957 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% 0.21
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 957 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,031 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% 0.19
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,031 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 999 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% 0.17
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 999 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 980 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% 0.14
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 980 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,471 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,471 Trump
49		 Biden
48		 +1% +6% -
10/28/20 10/19-10/24 Montana State University Billings B/C LV 546 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +7.4% 0.71
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,401 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,401 Trump
50		 Biden
47		 +3% +8% -
10/27/20 10/26-10/27 Public Policy Polling B V 886 Trump
49		 Biden
47		 +2% +2.4% 0.94
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,266 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,266 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,227 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,227 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,210 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,210 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/24/20 10/15-10/18 RMG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
50		 Biden
46		 +4% +4% 0.57
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,170 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,170 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/23/20 10/18-10/20 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 758 Trump
49		 Biden
43		 +6% +5.6% 0.82
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,129 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,129 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/22/20 10/15-10/20 Strategies 360 B/C LV 500 Trump
51		 Biden
43		 +8% +7.8% 0.59
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,044 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,044 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 986 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 986 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 924 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 924 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 897 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 897 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 885 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 885 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 835 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 835 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 795 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 795 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 744 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 744 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/14/20 9/14-10/2 Montana State University Bozeman LV 1,615 Trump
51		 Biden
44		 +7% +7% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 706 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 706 Trump
56		 Biden
41		 +15% +20% -
10/12/20 10/9-10/10 Public Policy Polling B V 798 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +6.4% 0.48
10/7/20 10/5-10/7 Emerson College A- LV 500 Trump
56.4		 Biden
43.6		 +12.8% +13.2% 0.44
10/7/20 9/30-10/5 Data for Progress B- LV 737 Trump
49		 Biden
43		 +6% +6% 0.29
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 166 Trump
58.8		 Biden
38.7		 +20.2% +25.2% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 166 Trump
57.4		 Biden
40.5		 +16.9% +21.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 527 Trump
53.1		 Biden
43.2		 +9.9% +14.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 527 Trump
53.1		 Biden
43.8		 +9.3% +14.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,939 Trump
53.4		 Biden
44.9		 +8.6% +13.6% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,939 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 480 Trump
58.2		 Biden
39.3		 +18.9% +23.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 480 Trump
57.3		 Biden
40.5		 +16.8% +21.8% -
9/20/20 9/14-9/16 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 625 Trump
49		 Biden
42		 +7% +6.6% 0.25
9/10/20 8/30-9/5 Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates LV 800 Trump
50		 Biden
43		 +7% +7% -
9/1/20 8/22-8/27 Expedition Strategies LV 400 Trump
48		 Biden
44		 +4% +4% -
8/3/20 7/31-8/2 Emerson College A- LV 584 Trump
54.5		 Biden
45.5		 +9% +9.4% -
7/28/20 7/23-7/24 Public Policy Polling B V 917 Trump
50		 Biden
45		 +5% +5.4% -
7/22/20 7/11-7/16 Spry Strategies B/C LV 701 Trump
51.7		 Biden
41.9		 +9.8% +9.4% -
7/14/20 7/11-7/13 Civiqs B/C RV 873 Trump
49		 Biden
45		 +4% +4% -
7/13/20 7/9-7/10 Public Policy Polling B V 1,224 Trump
51		 Biden
42		 +9% +9.4% -
7/1/20 6/17-6/26 University of Montana RV 517 Trump
52.3		 Biden
37.9		 +14.4% +14.4% -
5/5/20 4/10-4/27 Montana State University Bozeman/University of Denver LV 459 Trump
45.3		 Biden
39.7		 +5.7% +5.7% -
2/26/20 2/12-2/22 University of Montana LV 498 Trump
56.2		 Biden
33.9		 +22.3% +22.3% -
10/8/19 9/26-10/3 University of Montana RV 303 Trump
53.5		 Biden
46.5		 +7% +7% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 56.2 35.8 +20.4%
2012 Romney v Obama 55.4 41.7 +13.7%
2008 McCain v Obama 49.5 47.3 +2.3%
2004 Bush v Kerry 59.1 38.6 +20.5%
2000 Bush v Gore 58.4 33.4 +25.1%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 2:37 AM EST
10/7
Montana polls jumped 1.5% toward Trump (was R+7.6%, now R+9.1%)
Montana changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
10/3
Montana polls jumped 2.7% toward Biden (was R+10.7%, now R+8%)
9/20
Montana polls jumped 1.5% toward Biden (was R+10.3%, now R+8.8%)
9/1
Montana polls jumped 1.5% toward Biden (was R+10.5%, now R+9%)
7/14
Montana polls jumped 3.3% toward Biden (was R+13%, now R+9.7%)