Montana

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0.9%
Polls: 44.5%
Trump
99.1%
Polls: 50.7% +6.2%
0.9%
99.1%



Swing

 
+14.2%
From 2016 Results
+8.6%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.949 Testing Range: +/- 4.57%






Polls

 
44.5%
Biden
50.7%
Trump (+6.2%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,401 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% 0.11
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,401 Trump
50		 Biden
47		 +3% +8% -
10/27/20 10/26-10/27 Public Policy Polling B V 886 Trump
49		 Biden
47		 +2% +2.4% 1.15
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,266 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% 0.07
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,266 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,227 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% 0.06
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,227 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,210 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,210 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/24/20 10/15-10/18 RMG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
50		 Biden
46		 +4% +4% 0.73
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,170 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,170 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/23/20 10/18-10/20 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 758 Trump
49		 Biden
43		 +6% +5.6% 1.01
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,129 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,129 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/22/20 10/15-10/20 Strategies 360 B/C LV 500 Trump
51		 Biden
43		 +8% +7.8% 0.74
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,044 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,044 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 986 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 986 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 924 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 924 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 897 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 897 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 885 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 885 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 835 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 835 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 795 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 795 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 744 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 744 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/14/20 9/14-10/2 Montana State University Bozeman LV 1,615 Trump
51		 Biden
44		 +7% +7% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 706 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 706 Trump
56		 Biden
41		 +15% +20% -
10/12/20 10/9-10/10 Public Policy Polling B V 798 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +6.4% 0.59
10/7/20 10/5-10/7 Emerson College A- LV 500 Trump
56.4		 Biden
43.6		 +12.8% +13.2% 0.57
10/7/20 9/30-10/5 Data for Progress B- LV 737 Trump
49		 Biden
43		 +6% +6% 0.39
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 166 Trump
58.8		 Biden
38.7		 +20.2% +25.2% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 166 Trump
57.4		 Biden
40.5		 +16.9% +21.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 527 Trump
53.1		 Biden
43.2		 +9.9% +14.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 527 Trump
53.1		 Biden
43.8		 +9.3% +14.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,939 Trump
53.4		 Biden
44.9		 +8.6% +13.6% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,939 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 480 Trump
58.2		 Biden
39.3		 +18.9% +23.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 480 Trump
57.3		 Biden
40.5		 +16.8% +21.8% -
9/20/20 9/14-9/16 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 625 Trump
49		 Biden
42		 +7% +6.6% 0.32
9/10/20 8/30-9/5 Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates LV 800 Trump
50		 Biden
43		 +7% +7% -
9/1/20 8/22-8/27 Expedition Strategies LV 400 Trump
48		 Biden
44		 +4% +4% -
8/3/20 7/31-8/2 Emerson College A- LV 584 Trump
54.5		 Biden
45.5		 +9% +9.4% -
7/28/20 7/23-7/24 Public Policy Polling B V 917 Trump
50		 Biden
45		 +5% +5.4% -
7/22/20 7/11-7/16 Spry Strategies B/C LV 701 Trump
51.7		 Biden
41.9		 +9.8% +9.4% -
7/14/20 7/11-7/13 Civiqs B/C RV 873 Trump
49		 Biden
45		 +4% +4% -
7/13/20 7/9-7/10 Public Policy Polling B V 1,224 Trump
51		 Biden
42		 +9% +9.4% -
7/1/20 6/17-6/26 University of Montana RV 517 Trump
52.3		 Biden
37.9		 +14.4% +14.4% -
5/5/20 4/10-4/27 Montana State University Bozeman/University of Denver LV 459 Trump
45.3		 Biden
39.7		 +5.7% +5.7% -
2/26/20 2/12-2/22 University of Montana LV 498 Trump
56.2		 Biden
33.9		 +22.3% +22.3% -
10/8/19 9/26-10/3 University of Montana RV 303 Trump
53.5		 Biden
46.5		 +7% +7% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 56.2 35.8 +20.4%
2012 Romney v Obama 55.4 41.7 +13.7%
2008 McCain v Obama 49.5 47.3 +2.3%
2004 Bush v Kerry 59.1 38.6 +20.5%
2000 Bush v Gore 58.4 33.4 +25.1%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 11:34 AM EDT
10/7
Montana polls jumped 1.5% toward Trump (was R+7.6%, now R+9.1%)
Montana changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
10/3
Montana polls jumped 2.7% toward Biden (was R+10.7%, now R+8%)
9/20
Montana polls jumped 1.5% toward Biden (was R+10.3%, now R+8.8%)
9/1
Montana polls jumped 1.5% toward Biden (was R+10.5%, now R+9%)
7/14
Montana polls jumped 3.3% toward Biden (was R+13%, now R+9.7%)