Montana
Live Election Night Forecast
Last Updated: 2/27 5:44 AM ESTElection Night Forecast Changes
Here you can see how the forecast has in Montana changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.
Montana Pre-Election Forecast
Safe Trump
Win Probability
Swing
+13.8%
From 2016 Results
+8.2%
From 2016 Polls
Polls
44.5%
Biden
51.1%
Trump
(+6.6%)
Date | Pollster | Rating | Voters | Sample Size | Republican | Democrat | Diff | Diff (Adj) | Weight |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11/2/20 10/29-11/2 | Change Research | C- | LV | 920 | Trump 50 |
Biden 45 |
+5% | +6.2% | 0.98 |
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 957 | Trump 52 |
Biden 46 |
+6% | +11% | 0.21 |
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 957 | Trump 52 |
Biden 46 |
+6% | +11% | - |
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,031 | Trump 52 |
Biden 46 |
+6% | +11% | 0.19 |
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,031 | Trump 52 |
Biden 46 |
+6% | +11% | - |
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 999 | Trump 52 |
Biden 46 |
+6% | +11% | 0.17 |
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 999 | Trump 51 |
Biden 46 |
+5% | +10% | - |
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 980 | Trump 52 |
Biden 46 |
+6% | +11% | 0.14 |
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 980 | Trump 51 |
Biden 46 |
+5% | +10% | - |
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,471 | Trump 50 |
Biden 48 |
+2% | +7% | - |
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,471 | Trump 49 |
Biden 48 |
+1% | +6% | - |
10/28/20 10/19-10/24 | Montana State University Billings | B/C | LV | 546 | Trump 52 |
Biden 45 |
+7% | +7.4% | 0.71 |
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,401 | Trump 51 |
Biden 47 |
+4% | +9% | - |
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,401 | Trump 50 |
Biden 47 |
+3% | +8% | - |
10/27/20 10/26-10/27 | Public Policy Polling | B | V | 886 | Trump 49 |
Biden 47 |
+2% | +2.4% | 0.94 |
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,266 | Trump 53 |
Biden 45 |
+8% | +13% | - |
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,266 | Trump 52 |
Biden 46 |
+6% | +11% | - |
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,227 | Trump 52 |
Biden 46 |
+6% | +11% | - |
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,227 | Trump 51 |
Biden 46 |
+5% | +10% | - |
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,210 | Trump 52 |
Biden 45 |
+7% | +12% | - |
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,210 | Trump 52 |
Biden 46 |
+6% | +11% | - |
10/24/20 10/15-10/18 | RMG Research | B/C | LV | 800 | Trump 50 |
Biden 46 |
+4% | +4% | 0.57 |
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,170 | Trump 53 |
Biden 45 |
+8% | +13% | - |
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,170 | Trump 52 |
Biden 45 |
+7% | +12% | - |
10/23/20 10/18-10/20 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | A+ | LV | 758 | Trump 49 |
Biden 43 |
+6% | +5.6% | 0.82 |
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,129 | Trump 53 |
Biden 45 |
+8% | +13% | - |
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,129 | Trump 52 |
Biden 45 |
+7% | +12% | - |
10/22/20 10/15-10/20 | Strategies 360 | B/C | LV | 500 | Trump 51 |
Biden 43 |
+8% | +7.8% | 0.59 |
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,044 | Trump 53 |
Biden 45 |
+8% | +13% | - |
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,044 | Trump 52 |
Biden 46 |
+6% | +11% | - |
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 986 | Trump 53 |
Biden 45 |
+8% | +13% | - |
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 986 | Trump 53 |
Biden 45 |
+8% | +13% | - |
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 924 | Trump 53 |
Biden 45 |
+8% | +13% | - |
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 924 | Trump 53 |
Biden 45 |
+8% | +13% | - |
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 897 | Trump 54 |
Biden 44 |
+10% | +15% | - |
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 897 | Trump 54 |
Biden 44 |
+10% | +15% | - |
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 885 | Trump 54 |
Biden 44 |
+10% | +15% | - |
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 885 | Trump 53 |
Biden 44 |
+9% | +14% | - |
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 835 | Trump 54 |
Biden 44 |
+10% | +15% | - |
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 835 | Trump 53 |
Biden 44 |
+9% | +14% | - |
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 795 | Trump 54 |
Biden 44 |
+10% | +15% | - |
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 795 | Trump 54 |
Biden 44 |
+10% | +15% | - |
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 744 | Trump 57 |
Biden 41 |
+16% | +21% | - |
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 744 | Trump 57 |
Biden 41 |
+16% | +21% | - |
10/14/20 9/14-10/2 | Montana State University Bozeman | LV | 1,615 | Trump 51 |
Biden 44 |
+7% | +7% | - | |
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 706 | Trump 57 |
Biden 41 |
+16% | +21% | - |
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 706 | Trump 56 |
Biden 41 |
+15% | +20% | - |
10/12/20 10/9-10/10 | Public Policy Polling | B | V | 798 | Trump 52 |
Biden 46 |
+6% | +6.4% | 0.48 |
10/7/20 10/5-10/7 | Emerson College | A- | LV | 500 | Trump 56.4 |
Biden 43.6 |
+12.8% | +13.2% | 0.44 |
10/7/20 9/30-10/5 | Data for Progress | B- | LV | 737 | Trump 49 |
Biden 43 |
+6% | +6% | 0.29 |
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 166 | Trump 58.8 |
Biden 38.7 |
+20.2% | +25.2% | - |
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 166 | Trump 57.4 |
Biden 40.5 |
+16.9% | +21.9% | - |
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 527 | Trump 53.1 |
Biden 43.2 |
+9.9% | +14.9% | - |
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 527 | Trump 53.1 |
Biden 43.8 |
+9.3% | +14.3% | - |
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,939 | Trump 53.4 |
Biden 44.9 |
+8.6% | +13.6% | - |
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,939 | Trump 52 |
Biden 46 |
+6% | +11% | - |
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 480 | Trump 58.2 |
Biden 39.3 |
+18.9% | +23.9% | - |
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 480 | Trump 57.3 |
Biden 40.5 |
+16.8% | +21.8% | - |
9/20/20 9/14-9/16 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | A+ | LV | 625 | Trump 49 |
Biden 42 |
+7% | +6.6% | 0.25 |
9/10/20 8/30-9/5 | Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates | LV | 800 | Trump 50 |
Biden 43 |
+7% | +7% | - | |
9/1/20 8/22-8/27 | Expedition Strategies | LV | 400 | Trump 48 |
Biden 44 |
+4% | +4% | - | |
8/3/20 7/31-8/2 | Emerson College | A- | LV | 584 | Trump 54.5 |
Biden 45.5 |
+9% | +9.4% | - |
7/28/20 7/23-7/24 | Public Policy Polling | B | V | 917 | Trump 50 |
Biden 45 |
+5% | +5.4% | - |
7/22/20 7/11-7/16 | Spry Strategies | B/C | LV | 701 | Trump 51.7 |
Biden 41.9 |
+9.8% | +9.4% | - |
7/14/20 7/11-7/13 | Civiqs | B/C | RV | 873 | Trump 49 |
Biden 45 |
+4% | +4% | - |
7/13/20 7/9-7/10 | Public Policy Polling | B | V | 1,224 | Trump 51 |
Biden 42 |
+9% | +9.4% | - |
7/1/20 6/17-6/26 | University of Montana | RV | 517 | Trump 52.3 |
Biden 37.9 |
+14.4% | +14.4% | - | |
5/5/20 4/10-4/27 | Montana State University Bozeman/University of Denver | LV | 459 | Trump 45.3 |
Biden 39.7 |
+5.7% | +5.7% | - | |
2/26/20 2/12-2/22 | University of Montana | LV | 498 | Trump 56.2 |
Biden 33.9 |
+22.3% | +22.3% | - | |
10/8/19 9/26-10/3 | University of Montana | RV | 303 | Trump 53.5 |
Biden 46.5 |
+7% | +7% | - |
Past Results
Year | Candidates | Republican | Democrat | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | Trump v Clinton | 56.2 | 35.8 | +20.4% |
2012 | Romney v Obama | 55.4 | 41.7 | +13.7% |
2008 | McCain v Obama | 49.5 | 47.3 | +2.3% |
2004 | Bush v Kerry | 59.1 | 38.6 | +20.5% |
2000 | Bush v Gore | 58.4 | 33.4 | +25.1% |
Updates
Last Updated: 11/3 2:37 AM EST10/7
10/3
9/20
9/1
7/14