Nebraska

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/4 5:18 AM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Nebraska changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Nebraska Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 40.6%
Trump
100%
Polls: 57.7% +17.1%
100%



Swing

 
+8%
From 2016 Results
+0.8%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
40.6%
Biden
57.7%
Trump (+17.1%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,666 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% 0.27
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,666 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,751 Trump
56		 Biden
43		 +13% +18% 0.24
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,751 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,722 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% 0.22
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,722 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,678 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% 0.2
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,678 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,423 Trump
53		 Biden
46		 +7% +12% 0.07
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,423 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,285 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% 0.06
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,285 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,777 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% 0.02
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,777 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,748 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% 0
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,748 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,704 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,704 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,643 Trump
53		 Biden
46		 +7% +12% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,643 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,630 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,630 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,543 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,543 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,452 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,452 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,394 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,394 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,364 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,364 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,339 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,339 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,292 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,292 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,225 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,225 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,159 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,159 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,124 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,124 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 267 Trump
57.2		 Biden
40.7		 +16.5% +21.5% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 267 Trump
56.3		 Biden
42.2		 +14% +19% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 910 Trump
52		 Biden
45.8		 +6.2% +11.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 910 Trump
53.7		 Biden
44.4		 +9.4% +14.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 560 Trump
52.6		 Biden
46.6		 +6% +11% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 560 Trump
53		 Biden
47		 +6% +11% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 799 Trump
56		 Biden
41.4		 +14.6% +19.6% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 799 Trump
57.1		 Biden
40.8		 +16.4% +21.4% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 58.8 33.7 +25.1%
2012 Romney v Obama 59.8 38 +21.8%
2008 McCain v Obama 56.5 41.6 +14.9%
2004 Bush v Kerry 65.9 32.7 +33.2%
2000 Bush v Gore 62.3 33.3 +29%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 7:55 AM EDT
10/31
Nebraska polls jumped 1.7% toward Trump (was R+14.2%, now R+15.9%)
10/30
Nebraska polls jumped 2.7% toward Trump (was R+11.5%, now R+14.2%)
10/13
Nebraska polls jumped 1.6% toward Biden (was R+15.6%, now R+14%)
10/3
Nebraska polls jumped 1.5% toward Trump (was R+15.3%, now R+16.8%)