Nebraska CD-1

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Lean Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
25.1%
Polls: 46.1%
Trump
74.9%
Polls: 47.9% +1.8%
25.1%
74.9%



Swing

 
+18.9%
From 2016 Results
+21.5%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 3.909 Testing Range: +/- 9.11%




Tipping Point



0.1%
of the time





Polls

 
46.1%
Biden
47.9%
Trump (+1.8%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
8/10/20 7/16-7/22 Strategies 360 B/C LV 400 Trump
48
Biden
46
+2% +1.8% 0.05


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 56.2 35.5 +20.7%
2012 Romney v Obama 57.4 40.8 +16.6%
2008 McCain v Obama 54.1 44.3 +9.8%
2004 Bush v Kerry 63 36 +27%
2000 Bush v Gore 59 36 +23%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/27 9:54 PM EDT
8/1
Nebraska CD-1 changed from Toss Up to Lean Trump
7/31
Nebraska CD-1 changed from Lean Trump to Toss Up
7/26
Nebraska CD-1 changed from Toss Up to Lean Trump
7/25
Nebraska CD-1 changed from Lean Trump to Toss Up
7/22
Nebraska CD-1 changed from Toss Up to Lean Trump