Nebraska CD-1

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 5/15 2:08 AM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Nebraska CD-1 changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Nebraska CD-1 Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Lean Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
22.7%
Polls: 46.1%
Trump
77.3%
Polls: 47.9% +1.8%
22.7%
77.3%



Swing

 
+18.9%
From 2016 Results
+21.5%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 3.595 Testing Range: +/- 8.41%




Tipping Point



0.1%
of the time





Polls

 
46.1%
Biden
47.9%
Trump (+1.8%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
8/10/20 7/16-7/22 Strategies 360 B/C LV 400 Trump
48		 Biden
46		 +2% +1.8% 0.05


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 56.2 35.5 +20.7%
2012 Romney v Obama 57.4 40.8 +16.6%
2008 McCain v Obama 54.1 44.3 +9.8%
2004 Bush v Kerry 63 36 +27%
2000 Bush v Gore 59 36 +23%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 2:39 AM EDT
8/1
Nebraska CD-1 changed from Toss Up to Lean Trump
7/31
Nebraska CD-1 changed from Lean Trump to Toss Up
7/26
Nebraska CD-1 changed from Toss Up to Lean Trump
7/25
Nebraska CD-1 changed from Lean Trump to Toss Up
7/22
Nebraska CD-1 changed from Toss Up to Lean Trump