Nebraska CD-1

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 6/13 9:32 AM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Nebraska CD-1 changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





Nebraska CD-1 Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Toss Up

Win Probability
(with same polling error as 2016)

This version of the model assumes the same polling error (polls on election day vs actual result) as 2016.
In Nebraska CD-1 the polls are shifted 2.7% more Democratic.

Biden
Trump
Biden
36.1%
Polls: 47.5% +0.9%
Trump
63.9%
Polls: 46.6%
36.1%
63.9%



Swing

 
+21.6%
From 2016 Results
+21.6%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 4.008 Testing Range: +/- 9.34%




Tipping Point



0.2%
of the time





Polls

 
47.5%
Biden (+0.9%)
46.6%
Trump
 



Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 9:57 AM EDT