Nebraska CD-2

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Lean Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
76%
Polls: 50.3% +7.9%
Trump
24%
Polls: 42.4%
76%
24%



Swing

 
+10.2%
From 2016 Results
+15.4%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 3.76 Testing Range: +/- 8.75%




Tipping Point



0.6%
of the time





Polls

 
50.3%
Biden (+7.9%)
42.4%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/8/20 10/1-10/4 FM3 Research B/C LV 450 Trump
42
Biden
53
+11% +10.4% 0.41
9/28/20 9/25-9/27 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 420 Trump
41
Biden
48
+7% +7.4% 0.49
9/18/20 7/27-7/29 Global Strategy Group B/C LV 400 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +5.2% 0.05
9/18/20 9/14-9/16 Global Strategy Group B/C LV 400 Trump
45
Biden
51
+6% +4.2% 0.17
7/13/20 6/30-7/5 GQR Research B LV 502 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +4.8% 0.05
5/12/20 5/7-5/10 DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department B/C LV 448 Trump
41
Biden
52
+11% +10.8% 0.05


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 47.2 44.9 +2.2%
2012 Romney v Obama 52.9 45.7 +7.2%
2008 McCain v Obama 48.8 50 +1.2%
2004 Bush v Kerry 60 38 +22%
2000 Bush v Gore 57 39 +18%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/27 9:42 PM EDT
7/3
Nebraska CD-2 changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden
7/2
Nebraska CD-2 changed from Lean Biden to Toss Up
6/27
Nebraska CD-2 changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden
6/5
Nebraska CD-2 changed from Lean Biden to Toss Up
6/4
Nebraska CD-2 changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden