Nebraska CD-2

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/21 2:56 PM EST
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Nebraska CD-2 changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





Nebraska CD-2 Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Lean Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
67.5%
Polls: 50% +4.2%
Trump
32.5%
Polls: 45.8%
67.5%
32.5%



Swing

 
+6.5%
From 2016 Results
+11.7%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.618 Testing Range: +/- 6.12%




Tipping Point



0.3%
of the time





Polls

 
50%
Biden (+4.2%)
45.8%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/29-11/2 Change Research C- LV 547 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +1.8% 0.91
11/2/20 10/30-11/2 University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School LV 191 Trump
44.3
Biden
50.2
+5.9% +5.9% 0.73
10/31/20 10/29-10/30 Emerson College A- LV 806 Trump
47.8
Biden
50.4
+2.6% +2.2% 1.14
10/8/20 10/1-10/4 FM3 Research B/C LV 450 Trump
42
Biden
53
+11% +10.4% 0.29
9/28/20 9/25-9/27 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 420 Trump
41
Biden
48
+7% +7.4% 0.38
9/18/20 7/27-7/29 Global Strategy Group B/C LV 400 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +5.2% 0.05
9/18/20 9/14-9/16 Global Strategy Group B/C LV 400 Trump
45
Biden
51
+6% +4.2% 0.09
7/13/20 6/30-7/5 GQR Research B LV 502 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +4.8% 0.05
5/12/20 5/7-5/10 DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department B/C LV 448 Trump
41
Biden
52
+11% +10.8% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 47.2 44.9 +2.2%
2012 Romney v Obama 52.9 45.7 +7.2%
2008 McCain v Obama 48.8 50 +1.2%
2004 Bush v Kerry 60 38 +22%
2000 Bush v Gore 57 39 +18%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 12:54 AM EST
10/31
Nebraska CD-2 polls jumped 3.1% toward Trump (was D+7.9%, now D+4.8%)
7/3
Nebraska CD-2 changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden
7/2
Nebraska CD-2 changed from Lean Biden to Toss Up
6/27
Nebraska CD-2 changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden
6/5
Nebraska CD-2 changed from Lean Biden to Toss Up