Nevada

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Likely Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
84.1%
Polls: 49.2% +6.1%
Trump
15.9%
Polls: 43.1%
84.1%
15.9%



Swing

 
+4.6%
From 2016 Results
+5.4%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.599 Testing Range: +/- 6.06%




Tipping Point



2.3%
of the time





Polls

 
49.2%
Biden (+6.1%)
43.1%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,226 Trump
49		 Biden
50		 +1% +4% 0.1
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,226 Trump
47		 Biden
51		 +4% +1% -
10/27/20 10/23-10/26 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 809 Trump
43		 Biden
49		 +6% +6.4% 1.2
10/27/20 10/16-10/23 University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School LV 802 Trump
41		 Biden
50		 +9% +9% 0.56
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,015 Trump
48		 Biden
51		 +3% +2% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,015 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,967 Trump
49		 Biden
50		 +1% +4% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,967 Trump
47		 Biden
51		 +4% +1% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,787 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +3% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,787 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,790 Trump
48		 Biden
51		 +3% +2% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,790 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,746 Trump
48		 Biden
51		 +3% +2% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,746 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,671 Trump
48		 Biden
51		 +3% +2% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,671 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/21/20 10/17-10/20 Civiqs B/C LV 712 Trump
43		 Biden
52		 +9% +9% 0.79
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,549 Trump
48		 Biden
51		 +3% +2% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,549 Trump
46		 Biden
53		 +7% +2% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,492 Trump
47		 Biden
52		 +5% +0% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,492 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,443 Trump
48		 Biden
51		 +3% +2% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,443 Trump
46		 Biden
53		 +7% +2% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,328 Trump
48		 Biden
51		 +3% +2% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,328 Trump
46		 Biden
53		 +7% +2% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,149 Trump
47		 Biden
52		 +5% +0% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,149 Trump
45		 Biden
54		 +9% +4% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,994 Trump
47		 Biden
52		 +5% +0% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,994 Trump
45		 Biden
54		 +9% +4% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,958 Trump
47		 Biden
52		 +5% +0% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,958 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,915 Trump
47		 Biden
51		 +4% +1% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,915 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/13/20 10/7-10/11 WPA Intelligence B/C LV 512 Trump
42		 Biden
44		 +2% +2.8% 0.51
10/11/20 10/6-10/9 YouGov B LV 1,036 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +5.6% 0.54
10/7/20 10/2-10/6 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 660 Trump
42		 Biden
48		 +6% +6.4% 0.6
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 609 Trump
47.3		 Biden
51.4		 +4.1% +0.9% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 609 Trump
49.2		 Biden
49.7		 +0.5% +4.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,021 Trump
50.8		 Biden
47.1		 +3.7% +8.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,021 Trump
51.8		 Biden
46.6		 +5.2% +10.2% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 998 Trump
46.4		 Biden
51.8		 +5.5% +0.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 998 Trump
49		 Biden
50		 +1% +4% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,239 Trump
45		 Biden
52.6		 +7.6% +2.6% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,239 Trump
46.7		 Biden
51.4		 +4.7% +0.4% -
9/28/20 9/10-9/25 University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School LV 641 Trump
41		 Biden
46		 +5% +5% -
9/27/20 9/23-9/25 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 750 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +2.6% 0.22
9/25/20 9/15-9/21 ALG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
43		 Biden
47		 +4% +2.4% 0.16
9/24/20 9/20-9/23 Fox News A- RV 911 Trump
40		 Biden
50		 +10% +8.6% -
9/24/20 9/20-9/23 Fox News A- LV 810 Trump
41		 Biden
52		 +11% +9.6% 0.33
9/12/20 9/8-9/10 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 462 Trump
42		 Biden
46		 +4% +4.4% 0.27
9/1/20 8/20-8/30 University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School LV 682 Trump
38.6		 Biden
44		 +5.4% +5.4% -
5/6/20 4/27-4/30 ALG Research B/C LV 763 Trump
45		 Biden
49		 +4% +2.4% -
2/21/20 2/19-2/21 AtlasIntel B/C RV 1,100 Trump
40.9		 Biden
43.7		 +2.8% +2.8% -
1/9/20 1/5-1/8 Fox News A- RV 1,505 Trump
39		 Biden
47		 +8% +6.6% 0.09
11/14/19 11/10-11/13 Fox News A- RV 1,506 Trump
40		 Biden
47		 +7% +5.6% 0.09
11/3/19 10/31-11/2 Emerson College A- RV 1,089 Trump
50.7		 Biden
49.3		 +1.4% +1.8% 0.08
8/20/19 8/14-8/16 Gravis Marketing C RV 926 Trump
43		 Biden
49		 +6% +5% -
3/31/19 3/28-3/30 Emerson College A- RV 719 Trump
48.3		 Biden
51.7		 +3.4% +3% 0.07


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 46 47.5 +1.5%
2012 Romney v Obama 45.7 52.4 +6.7%
2008 McCain v Obama 42.7 55.2 +12.5%
2004 Bush v Kerry 50.5 47.9 +2.6%
2000 Bush v Gore 49.5 46 +3.5%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 10:34 AM EDT
10/27
Nevada changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
10/25
Nevada changed from Likely Biden to Lean Biden
10/24
Nevada changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
9/24
Nevada polls jumped 2.3% toward Biden (was D+4.1%, now D+6.4%)
Nevada changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden