Nevada
Live Election Night Forecast
Last Updated: 1/26 1:41 PM ESTElection Night Forecast Changes
Here you can see how the forecast has in Nevada changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.
Nevada Pre-Election Forecast
Likely Biden
Win Probability
Swing
+3.1%
From 2016 Results
+3.9%
From 2016 Polls
Polls
49.4%
Biden
(+4.6%)
44.8%
Trump
Date | Pollster | Rating | Voters | Sample Size | Republican | Democrat | Diff | Diff (Adj) | Weight |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 | Data for Progress | B- | LV | 1,442 | Trump 44 |
Biden 51 |
+7% | +7% | 1.1 |
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,211 | Trump 49 |
Biden 49 |
0% | +5% | 0.21 |
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,211 | Trump 48 |
Biden 50 |
+2% | +3% | - |
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,247 | Trump 49 |
Biden 49 |
0% | +5% | 0.18 |
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,247 | Trump 48 |
Biden 50 |
+2% | +3% | - |
11/1/20 10/29-10/31 | Emerson College | A- | LV | 720 | Trump 47.2 |
Biden 48.9 |
+1.7% | +1.3% | 1.12 |
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,047 | Trump 48 |
Biden 50 |
+2% | +3% | 0.16 |
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,047 | Trump 47 |
Biden 51 |
+4% | +1% | - |
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,072 | Trump 49 |
Biden 49 |
0% | +5% | 0.14 |
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,072 | Trump 47 |
Biden 51 |
+4% | +1% | - |
10/30/20 10/28-10/29 | Trafalgar Group | C- | LV | 1,024 | Trump 47.1 |
Biden 49.4 |
+2.3% | +3.3% | 0.9 |
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 3,333 | Trump 49 |
Biden 50 |
+1% | +4% | - |
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 3,333 | Trump 47 |
Biden 51 |
+4% | +1% | - |
10/29/20 10/27-10/28 | Gravis Marketing | C | LV | 688 | Trump 44 |
Biden 50 |
+6% | +5% | 0.84 |
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 3,226 | Trump 49 |
Biden 50 |
+1% | +4% | - |
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 3,226 | Trump 47 |
Biden 51 |
+4% | +1% | - |
10/27/20 10/23-10/26 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | A+ | LV | 809 | Trump 43 |
Biden 49 |
+6% | +6.4% | 1.01 |
10/27/20 10/16-10/23 | University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School | LV | 802 | Trump 41 |
Biden 50 |
+9% | +9% | 0.38 | |
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 3,015 | Trump 48 |
Biden 51 |
+3% | +2% | - |
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 3,015 | Trump 46 |
Biden 52 |
+6% | +1% | - |
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,967 | Trump 49 |
Biden 50 |
+1% | +4% | - |
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,967 | Trump 47 |
Biden 51 |
+4% | +1% | - |
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,787 | Trump 48 |
Biden 50 |
+2% | +3% | - |
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,787 | Trump 46 |
Biden 52 |
+6% | +1% | - |
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,790 | Trump 48 |
Biden 51 |
+3% | +2% | - |
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,790 | Trump 46 |
Biden 52 |
+6% | +1% | - |
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,746 | Trump 48 |
Biden 51 |
+3% | +2% | - |
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,746 | Trump 46 |
Biden 52 |
+6% | +1% | - |
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,671 | Trump 48 |
Biden 51 |
+3% | +2% | - |
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,671 | Trump 46 |
Biden 52 |
+6% | +1% | - |
10/21/20 10/17-10/20 | Civiqs | B/C | LV | 712 | Trump 43 |
Biden 52 |
+9% | +9% | 0.62 |
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,549 | Trump 48 |
Biden 51 |
+3% | +2% | - |
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,549 | Trump 46 |
Biden 53 |
+7% | +2% | - |
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,492 | Trump 47 |
Biden 52 |
+5% | 0% | - |
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,492 | Trump 45 |
Biden 53 |
+8% | +3% | - |
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,443 | Trump 48 |
Biden 51 |
+3% | +2% | - |
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,443 | Trump 46 |
Biden 53 |
+7% | +2% | - |
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,328 | Trump 48 |
Biden 51 |
+3% | +2% | - |
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,328 | Trump 46 |
Biden 53 |
+7% | +2% | - |
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,149 | Trump 47 |
Biden 52 |
+5% | 0% | - |
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,149 | Trump 45 |
Biden 54 |
+9% | +4% | - |
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,994 | Trump 47 |
Biden 52 |
+5% | 0% | - |
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,994 | Trump 45 |
Biden 54 |
+9% | +4% | - |
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,958 | Trump 47 |
Biden 52 |
+5% | 0% | - |
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,958 | Trump 45 |
Biden 53 |
+8% | +3% | - |
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,915 | Trump 47 |
Biden 51 |
+4% | +1% | - |
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,915 | Trump 45 |
Biden 53 |
+8% | +3% | - |
10/13/20 10/7-10/11 | WPA Intelligence | B/C | LV | 512 | Trump 42 |
Biden 44 |
+2% | +2.8% | 0.36 |
10/11/20 10/6-10/9 | YouGov | B | LV | 1,036 | Trump 46 |
Biden 52 |
+6% | +5.6% | 0.42 |
10/7/20 10/2-10/6 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | A+ | LV | 660 | Trump 42 |
Biden 48 |
+6% | +6.4% | 0.48 |
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 609 | Trump 47.3 |
Biden 51.4 |
+4.1% | +0.9% | - |
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 609 | Trump 49.2 |
Biden 49.7 |
+0.5% | +4.5% | - |
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,021 | Trump 50.8 |
Biden 47.1 |
+3.7% | +8.7% | - |
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,021 | Trump 51.8 |
Biden 46.6 |
+5.2% | +10.2% | - |
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 998 | Trump 46.4 |
Biden 51.8 |
+5.5% | +0.5% | - |
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 998 | Trump 49 |
Biden 50 |
+1% | +4% | - |
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,239 | Trump 45 |
Biden 52.6 |
+7.6% | +2.6% | - |
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,239 | Trump 46.7 |
Biden 51.4 |
+4.7% | +0.4% | - |
9/28/20 9/10-9/25 | University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School | LV | 641 | Trump 41 |
Biden 46 |
+5% | +5% | - | |
9/27/20 9/23-9/25 | Pulse Opinion Research | C+ | LV | 750 | Trump 48 |
Biden 49 |
+1% | +2.6% | 0.1 |
9/25/20 9/15-9/21 | ALG Research | B/C | LV | 800 | Trump 43 |
Biden 47 |
+4% | +2.4% | 0.06 |
9/24/20 9/20-9/23 | Fox News | A- | RV | 911 | Trump 40 |
Biden 50 |
+10% | +8.6% | - |
9/24/20 9/20-9/23 | Fox News | A- | LV | 810 | Trump 41 |
Biden 52 |
+11% | +9.6% | 0.25 |
9/12/20 9/8-9/10 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | A+ | LV | 462 | Trump 42 |
Biden 46 |
+4% | +4.4% | 0.2 |
9/1/20 8/20-8/30 | University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School | LV | 682 | Trump 38.6 |
Biden 44 |
+5.4% | +5.4% | - | |
5/6/20 4/27-4/30 | ALG Research | B/C | LV | 763 | Trump 45 |
Biden 49 |
+4% | +2.4% | - |
2/21/20 2/19-2/21 | AtlasIntel | B/C | RV | 1,100 | Trump 40.9 |
Biden 43.7 |
+2.8% | +2.8% | - |
1/9/20 1/5-1/8 | Fox News | A- | RV | 1,505 | Trump 39 |
Biden 47 |
+8% | +6.6% | - |
11/14/19 11/10-11/13 | Fox News | A- | RV | 1,506 | Trump 40 |
Biden 47 |
+7% | +5.6% | - |
11/3/19 10/31-11/2 | Emerson College | A- | RV | 1,089 | Trump 50.7 |
Biden 49.3 |
+1.4% | +1.8% | - |
8/20/19 8/14-8/16 | Gravis Marketing | C | RV | 926 | Trump 43 |
Biden 49 |
+6% | +5% | - |
3/31/19 3/28-3/30 | Emerson College | A- | RV | 719 | Trump 48.3 |
Biden 51.7 |
+3.4% | +3% | - |
Past Results
Year | Candidates | Republican | Democrat | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | Trump v Clinton | 46 | 47.5 | +1.5% |
2012 | Romney v Obama | 45.7 | 52.4 | +6.7% |
2008 | McCain v Obama | 42.7 | 55.2 | +12.5% |
2004 | Bush v Kerry | 50.5 | 47.9 | +2.6% |
2000 | Bush v Gore | 49.5 | 46 | +3.5% |
Updates
Last Updated: 11/3 12:11 AM EST10/27
10/25
10/24