Nevada

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 5/15 1:48 AM EDT
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Nevada changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Nevada Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Likely Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
84.8%
Polls: 49.4% +4.6%
Trump
15.2%
Polls: 44.8%
84.8%
15.2%



Swing

 
+3.1%
From 2016 Results
+3.9%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.025 Testing Range: +/- 4.78%




Tipping Point



2.4%
of the time





Polls

 
49.4%
Biden (+4.6%)
44.8%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 Data for Progress B- LV 1,442 Trump
44		 Biden
51		 +7% +7% 1.1
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,211 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% 0.21
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,211 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +3% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,247 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% 0.18
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,247 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +3% -
11/1/20 10/29-10/31 Emerson College A- LV 720 Trump
47.2		 Biden
48.9		 +1.7% +1.3% 1.12
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,047 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +3% 0.16
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,047 Trump
47		 Biden
51		 +4% +1% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,072 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% 0.14
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,072 Trump
47		 Biden
51		 +4% +1% -
10/30/20 10/28-10/29 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,024 Trump
47.1		 Biden
49.4		 +2.3% +3.3% 0.9
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,333 Trump
49		 Biden
50		 +1% +4% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,333 Trump
47		 Biden
51		 +4% +1% -
10/29/20 10/27-10/28 Gravis Marketing C LV 688 Trump
44		 Biden
50		 +6% +5% 0.84
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,226 Trump
49		 Biden
50		 +1% +4% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,226 Trump
47		 Biden
51		 +4% +1% -
10/27/20 10/23-10/26 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 809 Trump
43		 Biden
49		 +6% +6.4% 1.01
10/27/20 10/16-10/23 University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School LV 802 Trump
41		 Biden
50		 +9% +9% 0.38
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,015 Trump
48		 Biden
51		 +3% +2% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,015 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,967 Trump
49		 Biden
50		 +1% +4% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,967 Trump
47		 Biden
51		 +4% +1% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,787 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +3% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,787 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,790 Trump
48		 Biden
51		 +3% +2% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,790 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,746 Trump
48		 Biden
51		 +3% +2% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,746 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,671 Trump
48		 Biden
51		 +3% +2% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,671 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/21/20 10/17-10/20 Civiqs B/C LV 712 Trump
43		 Biden
52		 +9% +9% 0.62
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,549 Trump
48		 Biden
51		 +3% +2% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,549 Trump
46		 Biden
53		 +7% +2% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,492 Trump
47		 Biden
52		 +5% 0% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,492 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,443 Trump
48		 Biden
51		 +3% +2% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,443 Trump
46		 Biden
53		 +7% +2% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,328 Trump
48		 Biden
51		 +3% +2% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,328 Trump
46		 Biden
53		 +7% +2% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,149 Trump
47		 Biden
52		 +5% 0% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,149 Trump
45		 Biden
54		 +9% +4% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,994 Trump
47		 Biden
52		 +5% 0% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,994 Trump
45		 Biden
54		 +9% +4% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,958 Trump
47		 Biden
52		 +5% 0% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,958 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,915 Trump
47		 Biden
51		 +4% +1% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,915 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/13/20 10/7-10/11 WPA Intelligence B/C LV 512 Trump
42		 Biden
44		 +2% +2.8% 0.36
10/11/20 10/6-10/9 YouGov B LV 1,036 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +5.6% 0.42
10/7/20 10/2-10/6 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 660 Trump
42		 Biden
48		 +6% +6.4% 0.48
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 609 Trump
47.3		 Biden
51.4		 +4.1% +0.9% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 609 Trump
49.2		 Biden
49.7		 +0.5% +4.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,021 Trump
50.8		 Biden
47.1		 +3.7% +8.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,021 Trump
51.8		 Biden
46.6		 +5.2% +10.2% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 998 Trump
46.4		 Biden
51.8		 +5.5% +0.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 998 Trump
49		 Biden
50		 +1% +4% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,239 Trump
45		 Biden
52.6		 +7.6% +2.6% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,239 Trump
46.7		 Biden
51.4		 +4.7% +0.4% -
9/28/20 9/10-9/25 University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School LV 641 Trump
41		 Biden
46		 +5% +5% -
9/27/20 9/23-9/25 Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 750 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +2.6% 0.1
9/25/20 9/15-9/21 ALG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
43		 Biden
47		 +4% +2.4% 0.06
9/24/20 9/20-9/23 Fox News A- RV 911 Trump
40		 Biden
50		 +10% +8.6% -
9/24/20 9/20-9/23 Fox News A- LV 810 Trump
41		 Biden
52		 +11% +9.6% 0.25
9/12/20 9/8-9/10 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 462 Trump
42		 Biden
46		 +4% +4.4% 0.2
9/1/20 8/20-8/30 University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School LV 682 Trump
38.6		 Biden
44		 +5.4% +5.4% -
5/6/20 4/27-4/30 ALG Research B/C LV 763 Trump
45		 Biden
49		 +4% +2.4% -
2/21/20 2/19-2/21 AtlasIntel B/C RV 1,100 Trump
40.9		 Biden
43.7		 +2.8% +2.8% -
1/9/20 1/5-1/8 Fox News A- RV 1,505 Trump
39		 Biden
47		 +8% +6.6% -
11/14/19 11/10-11/13 Fox News A- RV 1,506 Trump
40		 Biden
47		 +7% +5.6% -
11/3/19 10/31-11/2 Emerson College A- RV 1,089 Trump
50.7		 Biden
49.3		 +1.4% +1.8% -
8/20/19 8/14-8/16 Gravis Marketing C RV 926 Trump
43		 Biden
49		 +6% +5% -
3/31/19 3/28-3/30 Emerson College A- RV 719 Trump
48.3		 Biden
51.7		 +3.4% +3% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 46 47.5 +1.5%
2012 Romney v Obama 45.7 52.4 +6.7%
2008 McCain v Obama 42.7 55.2 +12.5%
2004 Bush v Kerry 50.5 47.9 +2.6%
2000 Bush v Gore 49.5 46 +3.5%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 12:11 AM EDT
10/27
Nevada changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
10/25
Nevada changed from Likely Biden to Lean Biden
10/24
Nevada changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
9/24
Nevada polls jumped 2.3% toward Biden (was D+4.1%, now D+6.4%)
Nevada changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden