Nevada

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/5 3:08 PM EDT 89% Reporting
Biden
Trump
Biden
Vote: 49.4% +0.9%
Polls: 49.4% +4.6%
Trump
Vote: 48.5%
Polls: 44.8%
89.5% Chance of Winning
10.5%  

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Nevada changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





Nevada Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Likely Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
84.8%
Polls: 49.4% +4.6%
Trump
15.2%
Polls: 44.8%
84.8%
15.2%



Swing

 
+3.1%
From 2016 Results
+3.9%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.025 Testing Range: +/- 4.78%




Tipping Point



2.4%
of the time





Polls

 
49.4%
Biden (+4.6%)
44.8%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 Data for Progress B- LV 1,442 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +7% 1.1
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,211 Trump
49
Biden
49
0% +5% 0.21
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,211 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,247 Trump
49
Biden
49
0% +5% 0.18
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,247 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
11/1/20 10/29-10/31 Emerson College A- LV 720 Trump
47.2
Biden
48.9
+1.7% +1.3% 1.12
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,047 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% 0.16
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,047 Trump
47
Biden
51
+4% +1% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,072 Trump
49
Biden
49
0% +5% 0.14
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,072 Trump
47
Biden
51
+4% +1% -
10/30/20 10/28-10/29 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,024 Trump
47.1
Biden
49.4
+2.3% +3.3% 0.9
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,333 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,333 Trump
47
Biden
51
+4% +1% -
10/29/20 10/27-10/28 Gravis Marketing C LV 688 Trump
44
Biden
50
+6% +5% 0.84
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,226 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,226 Trump
47
Biden
51
+4% +1% -
10/27/20 10/23-10/26 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 809 Trump
43
Biden
49
+6% +6.4% 1.01
10/27/20 10/16-10/23 University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School LV 802 Trump
41
Biden
50
+9% +9% 0.38
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,015 Trump
48
Biden
51
+3% +2% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,015 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,967 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,967 Trump
47
Biden
51
+4% +1% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,787 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,787 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,790 Trump
48
Biden
51
+3% +2% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,790 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,746 Trump
48
Biden
51
+3% +2% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,746 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,671 Trump
48
Biden
51
+3% +2% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,671 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/21/20 10/17-10/20 Civiqs B/C LV 712 Trump
43
Biden
52
+9% +9% 0.62
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,549 Trump
48
Biden
51
+3% +2% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,549 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,492 Trump
47
Biden
52
+5% 0% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,492 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,443 Trump
48
Biden
51
+3% +2% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,443 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,328 Trump
48
Biden
51
+3% +2% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,328 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,149 Trump
47
Biden
52
+5% 0% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,149 Trump
45
Biden
54
+9% +4% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,994 Trump
47
Biden
52
+5% 0% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,994 Trump
45
Biden
54
+9% +4% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,958 Trump
47
Biden
52
+5% 0% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,958 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,915 Trump
47
Biden
51
+4% +1% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,915 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/13/20 10/7-10/11 WPA Intelligence B/C LV 512 Trump
42
Biden
44
+2% +2.8% 0.36
10/11/20 10/6-10/9 YouGov B LV 1,036 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +5.6% 0.42
10/7/20 10/2-10/6 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 660 Trump
42
Biden
48
+6% +6.4% 0.48
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 609 Trump
47.3
Biden
51.4
+4.1% +0.9% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 609 Trump
49.2
Biden
49.7
+0.5% +4.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,021 Trump
50.8
Biden
47.1
+3.7% +8.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,021 Trump
51.8
Biden
46.6
+5.2% +10.2% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 998 Trump
46.4
Biden
51.8
+5.5% +0.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 998 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,239 Trump
45
Biden
52.6
+7.6% +2.6% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,239 Trump
46.7
Biden
51.4
+4.7% +0.4% -
9/28/20 9/10-9/25 University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School LV 641 Trump
41
Biden
46
+5% +5% -
9/27/20 9/23-9/25 Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 750 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +2.6% 0.1
9/25/20 9/15-9/21 ALG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
43
Biden
47
+4% +2.4% 0.06
9/24/20 9/20-9/23 Fox News A- RV 911 Trump
40
Biden
50
+10% +8.6% -
9/24/20 9/20-9/23 Fox News A- LV 810 Trump
41
Biden
52
+11% +9.6% 0.25
9/12/20 9/8-9/10 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 462 Trump
42
Biden
46
+4% +4.4% 0.2
9/1/20 8/20-8/30 University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School LV 682 Trump
38.6
Biden
44
+5.4% +5.4% -
5/6/20 4/27-4/30 ALG Research B/C LV 763 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +2.4% -
2/21/20 2/19-2/21 AtlasIntel B/C RV 1,100 Trump
40.9
Biden
43.7
+2.8% +2.8% -
1/9/20 1/5-1/8 Fox News A- RV 1,505 Trump
39
Biden
47
+8% +6.6% -
11/14/19 11/10-11/13 Fox News A- RV 1,506 Trump
40
Biden
47
+7% +5.6% -
11/3/19 10/31-11/2 Emerson College A- RV 1,089 Trump
50.7
Biden
49.3
+1.4% +1.8% -
8/20/19 8/14-8/16 Gravis Marketing C RV 926 Trump
43
Biden
49
+6% +5% -
3/31/19 3/28-3/30 Emerson College A- RV 719 Trump
48.3
Biden
51.7
+3.4% +3% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 46 47.5 +1.5%
2012 Romney v Obama 45.7 52.4 +6.7%
2008 McCain v Obama 42.7 55.2 +12.5%
2004 Bush v Kerry 50.5 47.9 +2.6%
2000 Bush v Gore 49.5 46 +3.5%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 12:11 AM EDT
10/27
Nevada changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
10/25
Nevada changed from Likely Biden to Lean Biden
10/24
Nevada changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
9/24
Nevada polls jumped 2.3% toward Biden (was D+4.1%, now D+6.4%)
Nevada changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden