New Hampshire

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Likely Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
94%
Polls: 52.2% +8.8%
Trump
6%
Polls: 43.4%
94%
6%



Swing

 
+8.4%
From 2016 Results
+4.7%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.264 Testing Range: +/- 5.27%




Tipping Point



2.8%
of the time





Polls

 
52.2%
Biden (+8.8%)
43.4%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,708 Trump
43
Biden
56
+13% +8% 0.1
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,708 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,629 Trump
43
Biden
55
+12% +7% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,629 Trump
43
Biden
56
+13% +8% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,599 Trump
43
Biden
55
+12% +7% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,599 Trump
43
Biden
56
+13% +8% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,605 Trump
43
Biden
55
+12% +7% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,605 Trump
43
Biden
55
+12% +7% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,563 Trump
43
Biden
56
+13% +8% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,563 Trump
43
Biden
56
+13% +8% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,508 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,508 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,448 Trump
42
Biden
57
+15% +10% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,448 Trump
41
Biden
57
+16% +11% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,410 Trump
41
Biden
57
+16% +11% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,410 Trump
41
Biden
57
+16% +11% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,364 Trump
41
Biden
57
+16% +11% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,364 Trump
41
Biden
57
+16% +11% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,330 Trump
41
Biden
58
+17% +12% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,330 Trump
41
Biden
58
+17% +12% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,301 Trump
42
Biden
57
+15% +10% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,301 Trump
42
Biden
57
+15% +10% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,214 Trump
43
Biden
55
+12% +7% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,214 Trump
43
Biden
56
+13% +8% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,153 Trump
44
Biden
55
+11% +6% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,153 Trump
43
Biden
55
+12% +7% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,098 Trump
44
Biden
55
+11% +6% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,098 Trump
43
Biden
55
+12% +7% -
10/14/20 10/8-10/12 Suffolk University A LV 500 Trump
40.8
Biden
51
+10.2% +9.6% 0.71
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,004 Trump
44
Biden
54
+10% +5% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,004 Trump
43
Biden
55
+12% +7% -
10/13/20 10/9-10/12 University of New Hampshire B- LV 899 Trump
43
Biden
55
+12% +9.2% 0.59
10/8/20 10/1-10/4 Saint Anselm College LV 1,147 Trump
41
Biden
53
+12% +12% 0.1
10/6/20 9/25-9/28 American Research Group B LV 600 Trump
44
Biden
53
+9% +9.2% 0.33
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 191 Trump
42.7
Biden
56.4
+13.7% +8.7% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 191 Trump
38.5
Biden
61
+22.5% +17.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 574 Trump
39.2
Biden
59.1
+19.9% +14.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 574 Trump
38.7
Biden
59.7
+21% +16% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 444 Trump
39.2
Biden
59.3
+20.1% +15.1% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 444 Trump
39
Biden
60
+21% +16% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 637 Trump
43.4
Biden
54.3
+10.9% +5.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 637 Trump
43.1
Biden
55
+11.8% +6.8% -
10/1/20 9/30-10/1 Emerson College A- LV 700 Trump
45.3
Biden
53.1
+7.8% +7.4% 0.47
9/30/20 9/24-9/28 University of New Hampshire B- LV 972 Trump
44
Biden
53
+9% +6.2% 0.31
9/29/20 9/23-9/25 Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 850 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +15.6% 0.23
9/29/20 9/17-9/25 University of Massachusetts Lowell A/B LV 657 Trump
44
Biden
53
+9% +9.2% 0.12
9/29/20 9/17-9/25 University of Massachusetts Lowell A/B LV 657 Trump
44
Biden
52
+8% +8.2% 0.12
9/12/20 9/8-9/11 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 445 Trump
42
Biden
45
+3% +3.4% 0.28
8/20/20 8/15-8/17 Saint Anselm College RV 1,042 Trump
43
Biden
51
+8% +8% -
7/30/20 5/14-5/18 University of New Hampshire B- LV 790 Trump
46
Biden
44
+2% +4.8% -
7/30/20 6/18-6/22 University of New Hampshire B- LV 936 Trump
39
Biden
52
+13% +10.2% -
7/30/20 7/16-7/28 University of New Hampshire B- LV 1,893 Trump
40
Biden
53
+13% +10.2% -
6/18/20 6/13-6/16 Saint Anselm College RV 1,072 Trump
42
Biden
49
+7% +7% -
4/29/20 4/23-4/27 Saint Anselm College RV 820 Trump
42
Biden
50
+8% +8% -
2/27/20 2/19-2/25 University of New Hampshire B- LV 576 Trump
46
Biden
44
+2% +4.8% -
2/10/20 2/8-2/10 AtlasIntel B/C RV 1,100 Trump
45.9
Biden
43.5
+2.4% +2.4% -
2/7/20 2/4-2/5 McLaughlin & Associates C/D LV 400 Trump
49
Biden
45
+4% +3% -
1/26/20 1/20-1/23 Marist College A+ RV 2,223 Trump
43
Biden
51
+8% +8.4% 0.18
11/26/19 11/22-11/26 Emerson College A- RV 637 Trump
41.6
Biden
45.9
+4.3% +3.9% -
11/26/19 11/22-11/26 Emerson College A- RV 547 Trump
47.7
Biden
52.3
+4.6% +4.2% -
11/19/19 11/13-11/18 Saint Anselm College RV 512 Trump
43
Biden
51
+8% +8% -
9/10/19 9/6-9/9 Emerson College A- RV 1,041 Trump
45.4
Biden
54.6
+9.2% +8.8% 0.09
8/13/19 8/2-8/6 Gravis Marketing C RV 505 Trump
40
Biden
53
+13% +12% -
2/23/19 2/21-2/22 Emerson College A- RV 910 Trump
45.2
Biden
54.8
+9.6% +9.2% 0.08


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 46.6 47 +0.4%
2012 Romney v Obama 46.4 52 +5.6%
2008 McCain v Obama 44.5 54.1 +9.6%
2004 Bush v Kerry 48.9 50.2 +1.4%
2000 Bush v Gore 48.1 46.8 +1.3%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 11:31 AM EDT
9/29
New Hampshire polls jumped 3.7% toward Biden (was D+5.8%, now D+9.5%)
New Hampshire changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
9/12
New Hampshire polls jumped 2.3% toward Trump (was D+7.9%, now D+5.6%)
7/30
New Hampshire polls jumped 1.9% toward Biden (was D+6.4%, now D+8.3%)
7/5
New Hampshire changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden
7/4
New Hampshire changed from Lean Biden to Toss Up