New Hampshire

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/5 1:14 PM EDT
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in New Hampshire changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




New Hampshire Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
99.4%
Polls: 52.7% +9%
Trump
0.6%
Polls: 43.7%
99.4%
0.6%



Swing

 
+8.6%
From 2016 Results
+4.9%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.669 Testing Range: +/- 3.87%




Tipping Point



1.6%
of the time





Polls

 
52.7%
Biden (+9%)
43.7%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 910 Trump
46		 Biden
53		 +7% +2% 0.21
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 910 Trump
45		 Biden
54		 +9% +4% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 982 Trump
47		 Biden
52		 +5% 0% 0.19
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 982 Trump
46		 Biden
53		 +7% +2% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 973 Trump
47		 Biden
52		 +5% 0% 0.16
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 973 Trump
46		 Biden
53		 +7% +2% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 986 Trump
46		 Biden
53		 +7% +2% 0.14
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 986 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,791 Trump
44		 Biden
55		 +11% +6% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,791 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/29/20 10/23-10/26 Saint Anselm College LV 1,018 Trump
44		 Biden
52		 +8% +8% 0.58
10/29/20 10/24-10/28 University of New Hampshire B- LV 864 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +5.2% 0.89
10/29/20 10/26-10/28 American Research Group B LV 600 Trump
39		 Biden
58		 +19% +19.2% 0.92
10/29/20 10/16-10/26 University of Massachusetts Lowell A/B LV 757 Trump
43		 Biden
53		 +10% +10.2% 0.79
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,708 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,708 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,629 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,629 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,599 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,599 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,605 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,605 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,563 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,563 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,508 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,508 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,448 Trump
42		 Biden
57		 +15% +10% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,448 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,410 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,410 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,364 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,364 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,330 Trump
41		 Biden
58		 +17% +12% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,330 Trump
41		 Biden
58		 +17% +12% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,301 Trump
42		 Biden
57		 +15% +10% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,301 Trump
42		 Biden
57		 +15% +10% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,214 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,214 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,153 Trump
44		 Biden
55		 +11% +6% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,153 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,098 Trump
44		 Biden
55		 +11% +6% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,098 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/14/20 10/8-10/12 Suffolk University A LV 500 Trump
40.8		 Biden
51		 +10.2% +9.6% 0.55
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,004 Trump
44		 Biden
54		 +10% +5% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,004 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/13/20 10/9-10/12 University of New Hampshire B- LV 899 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +9.2% 0.45
10/8/20 10/1-10/4 Saint Anselm College LV 1,147 Trump
41		 Biden
53		 +12% +12% -
10/6/20 9/25-9/28 American Research Group B LV 600 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +9.2% 0.25
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 191 Trump
42.7		 Biden
56.4		 +13.7% +8.7% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 191 Trump
38.5		 Biden
61		 +22.5% +17.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 574 Trump
39.2		 Biden
59.1		 +19.9% +14.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 574 Trump
38.7		 Biden
59.7		 +21% +16% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 444 Trump
39.2		 Biden
59.3		 +20.1% +15.1% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 444 Trump
39		 Biden
60		 +21% +16% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 637 Trump
43.4		 Biden
54.3		 +10.9% +5.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 637 Trump
43.1		 Biden
55		 +11.8% +6.8% -
10/1/20 9/30-10/1 Emerson College A- LV 700 Trump
45.3		 Biden
53.1		 +7.8% +7.4% 0.37
9/30/20 9/24-9/28 University of New Hampshire B- LV 972 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +6.2% 0.2
9/29/20 9/23-9/25 Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 850 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +15.6% 0.11
9/29/20 9/17-9/25 University of Massachusetts Lowell A/B LV 657 Trump
44		 Biden
53		 +9% +9.2% -
9/29/20 9/17-9/25 University of Massachusetts Lowell A/B LV 657 Trump
44		 Biden
52		 +8% +8.2% -
9/12/20 9/8-9/11 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 445 Trump
42		 Biden
45		 +3% +3.4% 0.22
8/20/20 8/15-8/17 Saint Anselm College RV 1,042 Trump
43		 Biden
51		 +8% +8% -
7/30/20 5/14-5/18 University of New Hampshire B- LV 790 Trump
46		 Biden
44		 +2% +4.8% -
7/30/20 6/18-6/22 University of New Hampshire B- LV 936 Trump
39		 Biden
52		 +13% +10.2% -
7/30/20 7/16-7/28 University of New Hampshire B- LV 1,893 Trump
40		 Biden
53		 +13% +10.2% -
6/18/20 6/13-6/16 Saint Anselm College RV 1,072 Trump
42		 Biden
49		 +7% +7% -
4/29/20 4/23-4/27 Saint Anselm College RV 820 Trump
42		 Biden
50		 +8% +8% -
2/27/20 2/19-2/25 University of New Hampshire B- LV 576 Trump
46		 Biden
44		 +2% +4.8% -
2/10/20 2/8-2/10 AtlasIntel B/C RV 1,100 Trump
45.9		 Biden
43.5		 +2.4% +2.4% -
2/7/20 2/4-2/5 McLaughlin & Associates C/D LV 400 Trump
49		 Biden
45		 +4% +3% -
1/26/20 1/20-1/23 Marist College A+ RV 2,223 Trump
43		 Biden
51		 +8% +8.4% 0.15
11/26/19 11/22-11/26 Emerson College A- RV 637 Trump
41.6		 Biden
45.9		 +4.3% +3.9% -
11/26/19 11/22-11/26 Emerson College A- RV 547 Trump
47.7		 Biden
52.3		 +4.6% +4.2% -
11/19/19 11/13-11/18 Saint Anselm College RV 512 Trump
43		 Biden
51		 +8% +8% -
9/10/19 9/6-9/9 Emerson College A- RV 1,041 Trump
45.4		 Biden
54.6		 +9.2% +8.8% 0.06
8/13/19 8/2-8/6 Gravis Marketing C RV 505 Trump
40		 Biden
53		 +13% +12% -
2/23/19 2/21-2/22 Emerson College A- RV 910 Trump
45.2		 Biden
54.8		 +9.6% +9.2% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 46.6 47 +0.4%
2012 Romney v Obama 46.4 52 +5.6%
2008 McCain v Obama 44.5 54.1 +9.6%
2004 Bush v Kerry 48.9 50.2 +1.4%
2000 Bush v Gore 48.1 46.8 +1.3%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 12:12 AM EDT
10/29
New Hampshire changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden
9/29
New Hampshire polls jumped 3.7% toward Biden (was D+5.8%, now D+9.5%)
New Hampshire changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
9/12
New Hampshire polls jumped 2.3% toward Trump (was D+7.9%, now D+5.6%)
7/30
New Hampshire polls jumped 1.9% toward Biden (was D+6.4%, now D+8.3%)
7/5
New Hampshire changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden