New Jersey

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 55.3% +18.1%
Trump
0%
Polls: 37.2%
100%



Swing

 
+4.1%
From 2016 Results
+6.7%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
55.3%
Biden (+18.1%)
37.2%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,048 Trump
37
Biden
60
+23% +18% 0.1
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,048 Trump
36
Biden
60
+24% +19% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,992 Trump
37
Biden
60
+23% +18% 0.09
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,992 Trump
36
Biden
60
+24% +19% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,944 Trump
37
Biden
60
+23% +18% 0.06
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,944 Trump
36
Biden
60
+24% +19% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,811 Trump
36
Biden
61
+25% +20% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,811 Trump
36
Biden
60
+24% +19% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,497 Trump
36
Biden
61
+25% +20% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,497 Trump
35
Biden
61
+26% +21% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,303 Trump
36
Biden
61
+25% +20% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,303 Trump
35
Biden
61
+26% +21% -
10/20/20 10/5-10/13 DKC Analytics LV 500 Trump
34
Biden
56
+22% +22% 0.27
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,121 Trump
36
Biden
61
+25% +20% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,121 Trump
35
Biden
61
+26% +21% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,990 Trump
36
Biden
61
+25% +20% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,990 Trump
35
Biden
61
+26% +21% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,902 Trump
35
Biden
61
+26% +21% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,902 Trump
35
Biden
61
+26% +21% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,817 Trump
36
Biden
61
+25% +20% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,817 Trump
35
Biden
61
+26% +21% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,566 Trump
36
Biden
61
+25% +20% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,566 Trump
35
Biden
60
+25% +20% -
10/16/20 10/7-10/13 Stockton University A/B LV 721 Trump
35.8
Biden
56.3
+20.5% +19.7% 0.66
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,272 Trump
36
Biden
60
+24% +19% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,272 Trump
35
Biden
60
+25% +20% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,032 Trump
36
Biden
60
+24% +19% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,032 Trump
36
Biden
60
+24% +19% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,893 Trump
37
Biden
60
+23% +18% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,893 Trump
36
Biden
59
+23% +18% -
10/9/20 9/30-10/5 Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) A/B RV 736 Trump
35
Biden
52
+17% +17% -
10/9/20 9/30-10/5 Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) A/B LV 582 Trump
38
Biden
53
+15% +15% 0.48
10/3/20 9/8-9/16 DKC Analytics LV 501 Trump
38
Biden
52
+14% +14% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,110 Trump
34.2
Biden
61.8
+27.6% +22.6% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,110 Trump
36.7
Biden
60.6
+23.9% +18.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,426 Trump
35.6
Biden
62.3
+26.7% +21.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,426 Trump
37.4
Biden
60.9
+23.5% +18.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,309 Trump
38.3
Biden
58.2
+19.9% +14.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,309 Trump
40
Biden
57
+17% +12% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,952 Trump
35.8
Biden
60.3
+24.6% +19.6% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,952 Trump
36.9
Biden
60.3
+23.4% +18.4% -
9/8/20 9/4-9/7 Emerson College A- LV 500 Trump
39.6
Biden
57.9
+18.3% +17.9% 0.2
8/21/20 8/5-8/13 DKC Analytics LV 500 Trump
33
Biden
52
+19% +19% -
7/28/20 7/7-7/12 DKC Analytics LV 500 Trump
33.4
Biden
51.2
+17.8% +17.8% -
5/14/20 4/22-5/2 Rutgers University B/C RV 1,364 Trump
33
Biden
56
+23% +23% -
5/14/20 4/22-5/2 Rutgers University B/C A 1,502 Trump
32
Biden
55
+23% +23% -
5/6/20 4/30-5/4 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 941 Trump
35
Biden
54
+19% +18.8% -
4/23/20 4/16-4/19 Monmouth University A+ RV 635 Trump
38
Biden
54
+16% +14.6% 0.18
2/18/20 2/12-2/16 Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) A/B RV 715 Trump
35
Biden
53
+18% +18% 0.08
2/18/20 2/12-2/16 Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) A/B A 790 Trump
34
Biden
52
+18% +18% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 41 55 +14%
2012 Romney v Obama 40.6 58.4 +17.8%
2008 McCain v Obama 41.7 57.3 +15.6%
2004 Bush v Kerry 46.2 52.9 +6.7%
2000 Bush v Gore 40.3 56.1 +15.8%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 10:12 AM EDT
8/7
New Jersey changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden
7/28
New Jersey changed from Safe Biden to Likely Biden
7/25
New Jersey changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden