New Jersey

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/4 6:38 AM EDT
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in New Jersey changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




New Jersey Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 57.5% +19.2%
Trump
0%
Polls: 38.3%
100%



Swing

 
+5.2%
From 2016 Results
+7.8%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
57.5%
Biden (+19.2%)
38.3%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 Swayable D- LV 324 Trump
40		 Biden
58.9		 +18.9% +18.9% 0.56
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,480 Trump
39		 Biden
59		 +20% +15% 0.25
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,480 Trump
38		 Biden
59		 +21% +16% -
11/2/20 10/31-11/1 Research Co. B- LV 450 Trump
38		 Biden
56		 +18% +18.6% 1.07
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,697 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% 0.22
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,697 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,688 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% 0.2
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,688 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,743 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% 0.17
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,743 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/30/20 10/23-10/26 Swayable D- LV 386 Trump
37.7		 Biden
61.8		 +24.1% +24.1% 0.41
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,472 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,472 Trump
36		 Biden
60		 +24% +19% -
10/29/20 10/18-10/24 Rutgers University B/C LV 872 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +24% 0.71
10/29/20 10/18-10/24 Rutgers University B/C RV 972 Trump
37		 Biden
59		 +22% +22% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,261 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,261 Trump
36		 Biden
59		 +23% +18% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,048 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,048 Trump
36		 Biden
60		 +24% +19% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,992 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,992 Trump
36		 Biden
60		 +24% +19% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,944 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,944 Trump
36		 Biden
60		 +24% +19% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,811 Trump
36		 Biden
61		 +25% +20% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,811 Trump
36		 Biden
60		 +24% +19% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,497 Trump
36		 Biden
61		 +25% +20% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,497 Trump
35		 Biden
61		 +26% +21% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,303 Trump
36		 Biden
61		 +25% +20% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,303 Trump
35		 Biden
61		 +26% +21% -
10/20/20 10/5-10/13 DKC Analytics LV 500 Trump
34		 Biden
56		 +22% +22% 0.09
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,121 Trump
36		 Biden
61		 +25% +20% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,121 Trump
35		 Biden
61		 +26% +21% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,990 Trump
36		 Biden
61		 +25% +20% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,990 Trump
35		 Biden
61		 +26% +21% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,902 Trump
35		 Biden
61		 +26% +21% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,902 Trump
35		 Biden
61		 +26% +21% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,817 Trump
36		 Biden
61		 +25% +20% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,817 Trump
35		 Biden
61		 +26% +21% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,566 Trump
36		 Biden
61		 +25% +20% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,566 Trump
35		 Biden
60		 +25% +20% -
10/16/20 10/7-10/13 Stockton University A/B LV 721 Trump
35.8		 Biden
56.3		 +20.5% +19.7% 0.51
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,272 Trump
36		 Biden
60		 +24% +19% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,272 Trump
35		 Biden
60		 +25% +20% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,032 Trump
36		 Biden
60		 +24% +19% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,032 Trump
36		 Biden
60		 +24% +19% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,893 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,893 Trump
36		 Biden
59		 +23% +18% -
10/9/20 9/30-10/5 Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) A/B RV 736 Trump
35		 Biden
52		 +17% +17% -
10/9/20 9/30-10/5 Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) A/B LV 582 Trump
38		 Biden
53		 +15% +15% 0.37
10/3/20 9/8-9/16 DKC Analytics LV 501 Trump
38		 Biden
52		 +14% +14% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,110 Trump
34.2		 Biden
61.8		 +27.6% +22.6% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,110 Trump
36.7		 Biden
60.6		 +23.9% +18.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,426 Trump
35.6		 Biden
62.3		 +26.7% +21.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,426 Trump
37.4		 Biden
60.9		 +23.5% +18.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,309 Trump
38.3		 Biden
58.2		 +19.9% +14.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,309 Trump
40		 Biden
57		 +17% +12% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,952 Trump
35.8		 Biden
60.3		 +24.6% +19.6% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,952 Trump
36.9		 Biden
60.3		 +23.4% +18.4% -
9/8/20 9/4-9/7 Emerson College A- LV 500 Trump
39.6		 Biden
57.9		 +18.3% +17.9% 0.13
8/21/20 8/5-8/13 DKC Analytics LV 500 Trump
33		 Biden
52		 +19% +19% -
7/28/20 7/7-7/12 DKC Analytics LV 500 Trump
33.4		 Biden
51.2		 +17.8% +17.8% -
5/14/20 4/22-5/2 Rutgers University B/C RV 1,364 Trump
33		 Biden
56		 +23% +23% -
5/14/20 4/22-5/2 Rutgers University B/C A 1,502 Trump
32		 Biden
55		 +23% +23% -
5/6/20 4/30-5/4 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 941 Trump
35		 Biden
54		 +19% +18.8% -
4/23/20 4/16-4/19 Monmouth University A+ RV 635 Trump
38		 Biden
54		 +16% +14.6% 0.14
2/18/20 2/12-2/16 Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) A/B RV 715 Trump
35		 Biden
53		 +18% +18% -
2/18/20 2/12-2/16 Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) A/B A 790 Trump
34		 Biden
52		 +18% +18% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 41 55 +14%
2012 Romney v Obama 40.6 58.4 +17.8%
2008 McCain v Obama 41.7 57.3 +15.6%
2004 Bush v Kerry 46.2 52.9 +6.7%
2000 Bush v Gore 40.3 56.1 +15.8%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 12:18 AM EDT
10/29
New Jersey polls jumped 1.9% toward Biden (was D+18%, now D+19.9%)
8/7
New Jersey changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden
7/28
New Jersey changed from Safe Biden to Likely Biden
7/25
New Jersey changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden