New Mexico

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Likely Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
97.4%
Polls: 53% +10.8%
Trump
2.6%
Polls: 42.2%
97.4%
2.6%



Swing

 
+2.5%
From 2016 Results
+4%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.607 Testing Range: +/- 6.05%




Tipping Point



1.1%
of the time





Polls

 
53%
Biden (+10.8%)
42.2%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,659 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% 0.14
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,659 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,584 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% 0.1
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,584 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,545 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% 0.08
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,545 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,519 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% 0.06
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,519 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,431 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,431 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,319 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,319 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,160 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,160 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/20/20 10/14-10/17 GBAO B/C LV 600 Trump
41
Biden
54
+13% +13% 0.7
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,092 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,092 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,026 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,026 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,001 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,001 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,969 Trump
47
Biden
52
+5% +0% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,969 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,839 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,839 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,701 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,701 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,620 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,620 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,555 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,555 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
10/6/20 9/30-10/1 Public Policy Polling B LV 886 Trump
39
Biden
53
+14% +13.6% 0.41
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 506 Trump
48
Biden
50.7
+2.7% +2.3% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 506 Trump
49.7
Biden
48.9
+0.8% +5.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 904 Trump
47.9
Biden
49.4
+1.5% +3.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 904 Trump
48.4
Biden
49.5
+1.1% +4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,087 Trump
42.1
Biden
55.2
+13.1% +8.1% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,087 Trump
43
Biden
56
+13% +8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,015 Trump
43.1
Biden
54.2
+11.1% +6.1% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,015 Trump
44.1
Biden
54.5
+10.3% +5.3% -
9/6/20 8/26-9/2 Research & Polling Inc. B+ LV 1,123 Trump
39
Biden
54
+15% +16% 0.12
6/16/20 6/12-6/13 Public Policy Polling B V 740 Trump
39
Biden
53
+14% +13.6% -
4/24/20 4/20-4/21 Public Policy Polling B V 1,009 Trump
40
Biden
52
+12% +11.6% -
1/6/20 1/3-1/6 Emerson College A- RV 967 Trump
45.7
Biden
54.3
+8.6% +8.2% 0.13


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 40 48.3 +8.2%
2012 Romney v Obama 42.8 53 +10.2%
2008 McCain v Obama 41.8 56.9 +15.1%
2004 Bush v Kerry 49.8 49.1 +0.8%
2000 Bush v Gore 47.9 47.9 +0.1%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 10:39 AM EDT
10/20
New Mexico polls jumped 1.5% toward Biden (was D+9.4%, now D+10.9%)
10/6
New Mexico polls jumped 2.3% toward Biden (was D+10.3%, now D+12.6%)
10/3
New Mexico polls jumped 6.6% toward Biden (was D+3.7%, now D+10.3%)
New Mexico changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
9/10
New Mexico changed from Likely Biden to Lean Biden
9/6
New Mexico polls jumped 6.5% toward Biden (was D+1%, now D+7.5%)
New Mexico changed from Toss Up to Likely Biden