New Mexico

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/5 8:24 PM EDT
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in New Mexico changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




New Mexico Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 53.8% +11.5%
Trump
0%
Polls: 42.3%
100%



Swing

 
+3.2%
From 2016 Results
+4.7%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.003 Testing Range: +/- 4.72%




Tipping Point



0.9%
of the time





Polls

 
53.8%
Biden (+11.5%)
42.3%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,375 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% 0.25
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,375 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,463 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% 0.23
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,463 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
11/1/20 10/23-10/29 Research & Polling Inc. B+ LV 1,180 Trump
42		 Biden
54		 +12% +13% 0.97
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,483 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% 0.2
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,483 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,548 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% 0.18
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,548 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,719 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,719 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,659 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,659 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,584 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,584 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,545 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,545 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,519 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,519 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,431 Trump
46		 Biden
53		 +7% +2% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,431 Trump
46		 Biden
53		 +7% +2% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,319 Trump
46		 Biden
53		 +7% +2% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,319 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,160 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,160 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/20/20 10/14-10/17 GBAO B/C LV 600 Trump
41		 Biden
54		 +13% +13% 0.56
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,092 Trump
46		 Biden
53		 +7% +2% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,092 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,026 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,026 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,001 Trump
46		 Biden
53		 +7% +2% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,001 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,969 Trump
47		 Biden
52		 +5% 0% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,969 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,839 Trump
46		 Biden
53		 +7% +2% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,839 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,701 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,701 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,620 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,620 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,555 Trump
46		 Biden
53		 +7% +2% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,555 Trump
45		 Biden
52		 +7% +2% -
10/6/20 9/30-10/1 Public Policy Polling B LV 886 Trump
39		 Biden
53		 +14% +13.6% 0.33
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 506 Trump
48		 Biden
50.7		 +2.7% +2.3% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 506 Trump
49.7		 Biden
48.9		 +0.8% +5.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 904 Trump
47.9		 Biden
49.4		 +1.5% +3.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 904 Trump
48.4		 Biden
49.5		 +1.1% +4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,087 Trump
42.1		 Biden
55.2		 +13.1% +8.1% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,087 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,015 Trump
43.1		 Biden
54.2		 +11.1% +6.1% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,015 Trump
44.1		 Biden
54.5		 +10.3% +5.3% -
9/6/20 8/26-9/2 Research & Polling Inc. B+ LV 1,123 Trump
39		 Biden
54		 +15% +16% 0.07
6/16/20 6/12-6/13 Public Policy Polling B V 740 Trump
39		 Biden
53		 +14% +13.6% -
4/24/20 4/20-4/21 Public Policy Polling B V 1,009 Trump
40		 Biden
52		 +12% +11.6% -
1/6/20 1/3-1/6 Emerson College A- RV 967 Trump
45.7		 Biden
54.3		 +8.6% +8.2% 0.1


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 40 48.3 +8.2%
2012 Romney v Obama 42.8 53 +10.2%
2008 McCain v Obama 41.8 56.9 +15.1%
2004 Bush v Kerry 49.8 49.1 +0.8%
2000 Bush v Gore 47.9 47.9 +0.1%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 12:36 AM EDT
10/30
New Mexico changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden
10/20
New Mexico polls jumped 1.5% toward Biden (was D+9.4%, now D+10.9%)
10/6
New Mexico polls jumped 2.3% toward Biden (was D+10.3%, now D+12.6%)
10/3
New Mexico polls jumped 6.6% toward Biden (was D+3.7%, now D+10.3%)
New Mexico changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
9/10
New Mexico changed from Likely Biden to Lean Biden