New Mexico

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 8/15 7:33 AM EDT
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in New Mexico changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





New Mexico Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Biden

Win Probability
(with same polling error as 2016)

This version of the model assumes the same polling error (polls on election day vs actual result) as 2016.
In New Mexico the polls are shifted 1.5% more Democratic.

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 54.6% +13.2%
Trump
0%
Polls: 41.4%
100%



Swing

 
+4.9%
From 2016 Results
+4.9%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.929 Testing Range: +/- 4.49%




Tipping Point



0.1%
of the time





Polls

 
54.6%
Biden (+13.2%)
41.4%
Trump
 



Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 9:56 AM EDT
10/20
New Mexico polls jumped 1.5% toward Biden (was D+10.9%, now D+12.4%)
New Mexico changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden
10/14
New Mexico changed from Safe Biden to Likely Biden
10/6
New Mexico polls jumped 2.3% toward Biden (was D+11.8%, now D+14.1%)
New Mexico changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden
10/3
New Mexico polls jumped 6.6% toward Biden (was D+5.2%, now D+11.8%)
New Mexico changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
10/1
New Mexico changed from Likely Biden to Lean Biden