New York

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/3 6:36 PM EDT
Biden
Trump
Biden
Polls: 61.2% +27.8%
Trump
Polls: 33.4%
100% Chance of Winning

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in New York changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




New York Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 61.2% +27.8%
Trump
0%
Polls: 33.4%
100%



Swing

 
+5.3%
From 2016 Results
+9.9%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
61.2%
Biden (+27.8%)
33.4%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,830 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% 0.28
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,830 Trump
34		 Biden
63		 +29% +24% -
11/2/20 10/31-11/1 Research Co. B- LV 450 Trump
33		 Biden
61		 +28% +28.6% 1.07
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,934 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% 0.25
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,934 Trump
34		 Biden
63		 +29% +24% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,769 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% 0.22
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,769 Trump
34		 Biden
62		 +28% +23% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,531 Trump
35		 Biden
62		 +27% +22% 0.19
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,531 Trump
34		 Biden
62		 +28% +23% -
10/30/20 10/23-10/26 Swayable D- LV 495 Trump
32.8		 Biden
65.4		 +32.6% +32.6% 0.43
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 10,220 Trump
34		 Biden
63		 +29% +24% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 10,220 Trump
34		 Biden
63		 +29% +24% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,937 Trump
34		 Biden
64		 +30% +25% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,937 Trump
33		 Biden
63		 +30% +25% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,773 Trump
33		 Biden
64		 +31% +26% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,773 Trump
33		 Biden
64		 +31% +26% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,750 Trump
33		 Biden
64		 +31% +26% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,750 Trump
33		 Biden
64		 +31% +26% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,721 Trump
33		 Biden
65		 +32% +27% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,721 Trump
32		 Biden
64		 +32% +27% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,813 Trump
33		 Biden
65		 +32% +27% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,813 Trump
32		 Biden
65		 +33% +28% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,873 Trump
32		 Biden
65		 +33% +28% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,873 Trump
32		 Biden
65		 +33% +28% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,973 Trump
33		 Biden
65		 +32% +27% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,973 Trump
32		 Biden
65		 +33% +28% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,962 Trump
33		 Biden
65		 +32% +27% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,962 Trump
32		 Biden
64		 +32% +27% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,958 Trump
33		 Biden
65		 +32% +27% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,958 Trump
32		 Biden
65		 +33% +28% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,914 Trump
33		 Biden
65		 +32% +27% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,914 Trump
32		 Biden
65		 +33% +28% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,878 Trump
33		 Biden
65		 +32% +27% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,878 Trump
32		 Biden
65		 +33% +28% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,675 Trump
33		 Biden
65		 +32% +27% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,675 Trump
32		 Biden
65		 +33% +28% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,500 Trump
33		 Biden
64		 +31% +26% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,500 Trump
32		 Biden
64		 +32% +27% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,406 Trump
33		 Biden
65		 +32% +27% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,406 Trump
32		 Biden
64		 +32% +27% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,405 Trump
33		 Biden
64		 +31% +26% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,405 Trump
32		 Biden
64		 +32% +27% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,555 Trump
32		 Biden
64.6		 +32.6% +27.6% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,555 Trump
33.1		 Biden
64.7		 +31.6% +26.6% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 10,280 Trump
33.5		 Biden
63.3		 +29.8% +24.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 10,280 Trump
34.4		 Biden
63.3		 +28.9% +23.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,969 Trump
33.3		 Biden
63.2		 +29.9% +24.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,969 Trump
34.1		 Biden
63.5		 +29.4% +24.4% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 10,007 Trump
32.9		 Biden
63.7		 +30.8% +25.8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 10,007 Trump
33.5		 Biden
64		 +30.5% +25.5% -
10/2/20 9/27-9/29 Siena College A- LV 504 Trump
29		 Biden
61		 +32% +32.8% 0.35
8/25/20 8/21-8/22 Public Policy Polling B V 1,029 Trump
32		 Biden
63		 +31% +30.6% 0.07
6/30/20 6/23-6/25 Siena College A- RV 806 Trump
32		 Biden
57		 +25% +25.8% 0.11
5/27/20 5/17-5/21 Siena College A- RV 796 Trump
32		 Biden
57		 +25% +25.8% 0.1
5/6/20 4/30-5/4 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 915 Trump
32		 Biden
55		 +23% +22.8% -
4/27/20 4/19-4/23 Siena College A- RV 803 Trump
29		 Biden
65		 +36% +36.8% 0.09
3/30/20 3/22-3/26 Siena College A- RV 566 Trump
33		 Biden
58		 +25% +25.8% 0.08
2/24/20 2/16-2/20 Siena College A- RV 658 Trump
36		 Biden
55		 +19% +19.8% 0.08


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 36.5 59 +22.5%
2012 Romney v Obama 35.2 63.4 +28.2%
2008 McCain v Obama 36 62.9 +26.9%
2004 Bush v Kerry 40.1 58.4 +18.3%
2000 Bush v Gore 35.2 60.2 +25%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 7:51 AM EDT
10/2
New York polls jumped 2.1% toward Biden (was D+27.3%, now D+29.4%)
8/25
New York polls jumped 1.7% toward Biden (was D+26.4%, now D+28.1%)