North Carolina

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Toss Up

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
61.6%
Polls: 48.8% +2%
Trump
38.4%
Polls: 46.8%
61.6%
38.4%



Swing

 
+5.6%
From 2016 Results
+1.4%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.195 Testing Range: +/- 5.09%




Tipping Point



4%
of the time





Polls

 
48.8%
Biden (+2%)
46.8%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,354 Trump
47
Biden
51
+4% +1% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,354 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
10/27/20 10/21-10/27 Ipsos B- LV 647 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +0.6% 0.42
10/27/20 10/23-10/26 SurveyUSA A LV 627 Trump
48
Biden
48
+0% +0.2% 1.13
10/27/20 10/21-10/27 Ipsos B- LV 647 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +0.6% 0.42
10/27/20 10/26-10/27 Public Policy Polling B V 937 Trump
47
Biden
51
+4% +3.6% 1.16
10/27/20 10/24-10/26 RMG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +1% 1.05
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,766 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,766 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,620 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,620 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/25/20 10/20-10/22 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,098 Trump
48.8
Biden
46
+2.8% +1.8% 0.82
10/25/20 10/20-10/23 YouGov B LV 1,022 Trump
47
Biden
51
+4% +3.6% 0.97
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,530 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,530 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,271 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,271 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/23/20 10/15-10/18 Data for Progress B- LV 929 Trump
44
Biden
48
+4% +4% 0.74
10/23/20 10/16-10/19 Meredith College B/C LV 732 Trump
44
Biden
48.1
+4.1% +4.1% 0.72
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,119 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,119 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/22/20 10/20-10/21 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 800 Trump
49
Biden
48
+1% +0.6% 0.83
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,904 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +2.8% 0.69
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,850 Trump
47
Biden
52
+5% +0% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,850 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/20/20 10/14-10/20 Ipsos B- LV 660 Trump
47
Biden
49
+2% +1.6% 0.27
10/20/20 10/16-10/19 Change Research C- LV 521 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +1.8% 0.59
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,483 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,483 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/20/20 10/14-10/20 Ipsos B- LV 660 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +2.6% 0.27
10/20/20 10/15-10/18 East Carolina University B/C LV 1,155 Trump
47.4
Biden
50.6
+3.2% +3.2% 0.71
10/20/20 10/12-10/17 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ LV 646 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +1.4% 0.32
10/20/20 10/12-10/17 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ RV 706 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +2.4% -
10/20/20 10/12-10/17 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ LV 646 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +0.4% 0.32
10/20/20 10/12-10/17 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ RV 706 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +1.4% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,225 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,225 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,100 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,100 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,989 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,989 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,735 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,735 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/15/20 10/13-10/14 Emerson College A- LV 721 Trump
49.2
Biden
49.2
+0% +0.4% 0.73
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,387 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,387 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/15/20 10/11-10/14 Civiqs B/C LV 1,211 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +5% 0.57
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,112 Trump
47
Biden
52
+5% +0% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,112 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/14/20 10/9-10/13 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 627 Trump
42
Biden
46
+4% +4.4% 0.74
10/14/20 10/7-10/11 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. C LV 500 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +1% 0.38
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,912 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,912 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/13/20 10/7-10/11 RMG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
45
Biden
47
+2% +2% 0.47
10/13/20 10/7-10/13 Ipsos B- LV 660 Trump
48
Biden
48
+0% +0.4% 0.14
10/13/20 10/8-10/11 SurveyUSA A LV 669 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +4.8% 0.63
10/13/20 10/7-10/13 Ipsos B- LV 660 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +0.6% 0.14
10/13/20 10/8-10/11 Monmouth University A+ LV 500 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +0.4% 0.23
10/13/20 10/8-10/11 Monmouth University A+ LV 500 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +2.6% 0.23
10/13/20 10/8-10/11 Monmouth University A+ RV 500 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +1.6% -
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,993 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +3.8% 0.41
10/9/20 10/4-10/6 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 938 Trump
44
Biden
49
+5% +5% -
10/7/20 9/30-10/5 Data for Progress B- LV 1,285 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +7% 0.33
10/6/20 9/29-10/6 Ipsos B- LV 601 Trump
47
Biden
47
+0% +0.4% 0.3
10/6/20 10/2-10/4 East Carolina University B/C LV 1,232 Trump
47.2
Biden
50.4
+3.2% +3.2% 0.32
10/6/20 10/2-10/4 Change Research C- LV 396 Trump
47
Biden
49
+2% +0.8% 0.16
10/5/20 10/4-10/5 Public Policy Polling B V 911 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +3.6% 0.44
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,498 Trump
47.2
Biden
50.8
+3.6% +1.4% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,498 Trump
49.4
Biden
49.2
+0.2% +5.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,466 Trump
47.8
Biden
49.6
+1.7% +3.3% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,466 Trump
49.5
Biden
48.6
+0.9% +5.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,914 Trump
48.6
Biden
49.1
+0.5% +4.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,914 Trump
51
Biden
48
+3% +8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,475 Trump
43.6
Biden
53.7
+10.2% +5.2% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,475 Trump
45.6
Biden
52.2
+6.6% +1.6% -
10/2/20 9/24-9/27 Hart Research Associates B/C LV 400 Trump
47
Biden
49
+2% +0.6% 0.12
10/2/20 9/23-9/26 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,097 Trump
45
Biden
47
+2% +2% -
10/1/20 9/22-9/28 ALG Research B/C V 822 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +1.4% 0.19
9/29/20 9/18-9/25 University of Massachusetts Lowell A/B LV 921 Trump
49
Biden
48
+1% +0.8% -
9/29/20 9/18-9/25 University of Massachusetts Lowell A/B LV 921 Trump
47
Biden
47
+0% +0.2% -
9/28/20 9/18-9/22 Meredith College B/C RV 705 Trump
45.4
Biden
45.7
+0.3% +0.3% 0.1
9/27/20 9/22-9/25 YouGov B LV 1,213 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +1.6% 0.18
9/23/20 9/17-9/20 Harper Polling B/C LV 612 Trump
45
Biden
44
+1% +1.2% -
9/23/20 9/18-9/20 Change Research C- LV 579 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +0.8% -
9/22/20 9/11-9/16 Ipsos B- LV 586 Trump
47
Biden
47
+0% +0.4% -
9/20/20 9/16-9/18 Emerson College A- LV 717 Trump
49.2
Biden
50.8
+1.6% +1.2% 0.17
9/18/20 9/12-9/15 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,092 Trump
45
Biden
47
+2% +2% -
9/18/20 9/11-9/16 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 653 Trump
44
Biden
45
+1% +1.4% 0.21
9/17/20 9/11-9/14 Suffolk University A LV 500 Trump
43.2
Biden
47.4
+4.2% +3.6% -
9/17/20 9/11-9/14 Suffolk University A LV 500 Trump
42.8
Biden
46.2
+3.4% +2.8% -
9/17/20 8/29-9/13 Kaiser Family Foundation RV 1,172 Trump
43
Biden
45
+2% +2% -
9/15/20 9/9-9/13 CNN/SSRS B/C LV 787 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +1.8% -
9/15/20 9/9-9/13 CNN/SSRS B/C RV 893 Trump
44
Biden
49
+5% +3.8% -
9/14/20 9/10-9/13 SurveyUSA A LV 596 Trump
47
Biden
47
+0% +0.2% 0.12
9/14/20 9/9-9/11 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,046 Trump
47.8
Biden
46.1
+1.7% +0.7% -
9/11/20 9/7-9/8 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 1,000 Trump
48.7
Biden
47.9
+0.8% +0.8% -
9/10/20 8/28-9/8 Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group LV 1,600 Trump
48
Biden
48
+0% +0% -
9/9/20 8/29-9/7 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,592 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +0.8% -
9/9/20 9/4-9/6 Change Research C- LV 442 Trump
47
Biden
49
+2% +0.8% -
9/8/20 8/30-9/3 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 951 Trump
44
Biden
43
+1% +1% -
9/3/20 8/29-9/1 Monmouth University A+ LV 401 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +0.6% -
9/3/20 8/29-9/1 Monmouth University A+ LV 401 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +0.6% -
9/3/20 8/29-9/1 Monmouth University A+ RV 401 Trump
45
Biden
47
+2% +0.6% -
9/2/20 8/29-9/1 Fox News A- LV 722 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +2.6% -
9/2/20 8/29-9/1 Fox News A- RV 804 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +2.6% -
9/1/20 8/29-8/30 East Carolina University B/C LV 1,101 Trump
48.7
Biden
46.6
+2.1% +2.1% -
9/1/20 8/21-8/30 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,567 Trump
47
Biden
49
+2% +1.8% -
9/1/20 8/7-8/16 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,493 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +2.8% -
8/26/20 8/21-8/23 Change Research C- LV 560 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +0.2% -
8/24/20 8/14-8/23 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,541 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +2.8% -
8/21/20 8/16-8/17 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 967 Trump
46
Biden
44
+2% +2% -
8/16/20 8/12-8/13 East Carolina University B/C RV 1,255 Trump
46.9
Biden
46.5
+0.4% +0.4% -
8/13/20 8/6-8/10 Harper Polling B/C LV 600 Trump
44
Biden
45
+1% +0.8% -
8/12/20 8/7-8/9 Change Research C- LV 491 Trump
48
Biden
47
+1% +2.2% -
8/11/20 8/8-8/10 Emerson College A- LV 673 Trump
50.6
Biden
49.4
+1.2% +1.6% -
8/10/20 7/30-7/31 Public Policy Polling B V 934 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +2.6% -
8/10/20 8/6-8/7 Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 750 Trump
48.4
Biden
47.3
+1.1% +0.5% -
8/10/20 7/23-7/31 HIT Strategies RV 400 Trump
37
Biden
47
+10% +10% -
8/6/20 7/24-8/2 Data for Progress B- LV 1,170 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +4% -
8/6/20 7/24-8/2 Data for Progress B- LV 1,170 Trump
44
Biden
46
+2% +2% -
8/5/20 7/21-7/23 Zogby Analytics C+ LV 809 Trump
40
Biden
44
+4% +4.6% -
8/2/20 7/28-7/31 YouGov B LV 1,129 Trump
44
Biden
48
+4% +3.6% -
7/30/20 7/19-7/21 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 919 Trump
42
Biden
43
+1% +1% -
7/30/20 7/22-7/24 Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) LV 735 Trump
48.4
Biden
46.8
+1.6% +1.6% -
7/29/20 7/24-7/26 Change Research C- LV 284 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +1.8% -
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,403 Trump
49
Biden
46
+3% +3.2% -
7/28/20 7/23-7/24 Public Policy Polling B V 884 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +2.6% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,504 Trump
47
Biden
47
+0% +0.2% -
7/27/20 7/14-7/22 Marist College A+ RV 882 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +7.4% -
7/22/20 7/12-7/16 Spry Strategies B/C LV 700 Trump
49
Biden
45.5
+3.4% +3% -
7/20/20 7/13-7/15 Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) LV 547 Trump
48.6
Biden
47.7
+0.9% +0.9% -
7/15/20 7/10-7/12 Change Research C- LV 655 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +0.2% -
7/10/20 4/13-4/16 GBAO B/C LV 500 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +2% -
7/9/20 7/7-7/8 Public Policy Polling B V 818 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +3.6% -
7/1/20 6/26-6/28 Change Research C- LV 468 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +5.8% -
6/30/20 6/22-6/25 East Carolina University B/C RV 1,149 Trump
43.8
Biden
45.1
+1.3% +1.3% -
6/25/20 6/20-6/23 Fox News A- RV 1,012 Trump
45
Biden
47
+2% +0.6% -
6/25/20 6/14-6/17 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 902 Trump
40
Biden
46
+6% +6% -
6/25/20 6/8-6/18 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ RV 653 Trump
40
Biden
49
+9% +9.4% -
6/24/20 6/22-6/23 Public Policy Polling B V 1,157 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +1.6% -
6/19/20 6/17-6/17 Gravis Marketing C RV 631 Trump
46
Biden
43
+3% +4% -
6/17/20 6/12-6/14 Change Research C- LV 378 Trump
45
Biden
47
+2% +0.8% -
6/4/20 6/2-6/3 Public Policy Polling B V 949 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +3.6% -
6/3/20 5/26-5/28 Harper Polling B/C LV 500 Trump
47
Biden
44
+3% +3.2% -
6/3/20 5/29-5/31 Change Research C- LV 806 Trump
45
Biden
46
+1% +0.2% -
5/26/20 5/9-5/13 Meeting Street Insights B/C RV 500 Trump
46.8
Biden
46.6
+0.2% +0.4% -
5/21/20 5/12-5/21 Neighborhood Research and Media B/C LV 391 Trump
42
Biden
42
+0% +0.2% -
5/21/20 5/10-5/14 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 859 Trump
43
Biden
45
+2% +2% -
5/15/20 5/7-5/9 East Carolina University B/C RV 1,111 Trump
46.1
Biden
43.2
+2.9% +2.9% -
5/5/20 5/2-5/4 Civiqs B/C RV 1,362 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +3% -
5/1/20 4/27-4/28 Meredith College B/C RV 604 Trump
40.4
Biden
47.4
+7% +7% -
4/29/20 4/13-4/18 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group B/C LV 800 Trump
45
Biden
48
+3% +1.6% -
4/28/20 4/23-4/26 SurveyUSA A LV 580 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +4.8% -
4/23/20 4/20-4/21 Public Policy Polling B V 1,275 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +2.6% -
4/16/20 4/14-4/15 Public Policy Polling B V 1,318 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +0.6% -
4/15/20 4/5-4/7 Harper Polling B/C LV 500 Trump
49
Biden
42
+7% +7.2% -
3/2/20 2/15-2/19 Climate Nexus RV 675 Trump
44
Biden
46
+2% +2% -
3/1/20 2/27-2/28 East Carolina University B/C RV 1,288 Trump
45.5
Biden
48.1
+2.6% +2.6% -
3/1/20 2/23-2/27 Marist College A+ RV 2,120 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +4.4% -
2/19/20 2/13-2/16 SurveyUSA A RV 2,366 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +3.8% -
11/14/19 11/10-11/13 Fox News A- RV 1,504 Trump
43
Biden
45
+2% +0.6% -
11/4/19 10/13-10/26 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 651 Trump
47.9
Biden
45.9
+2% +1.6% -
11/4/19 10/13-10/26 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ RV 651 Trump
47.6
Biden
45.7
+1.9% +1.5% -
10/14/19 10/2-10/9 East Carolina University B/C RV 1,076 Trump
46.4
Biden
49.7
+3.3% +3.3% -
10/14/19 9/29-10/7 Meredith College B/C RV 998 Trump
38.4
Biden
34.6
+3.8% +3.8% -
10/9/19 10/4-10/6 Public Policy Polling B V 963 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +4.6% -
9/17/19 7/29-7/31 Fabrizio Ward LLC B/C LV 600 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +3.8% -
8/14/19 8/1-8/4 Harper Polling B/C LV 500 Trump
45
Biden
44
+1% +1.2% -
8/8/19 8/1-8/5 SurveyUSA A RV 2,113 Trump
41
Biden
49
+8% +7.8% -
6/20/19 6/17-6/18 Public Policy Polling B RV 610 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +2.6% -
6/6/19 5/25-6/1 Spry Strategies B/C LV 730 Trump
52
Biden
41
+11% +10.6% -
6/4/19 5/31-6/3 Emerson College A- RV 932 Trump
44.3
Biden
55.7
+11.4% +11% -
2/19/19 2/11-2/13 Harper Polling B/C LV 500 Trump
43
Biden
39
+4% +4.2% -
1/9/19 1/4-1/7 Public Policy Polling B RV 750 Trump
44
Biden
49
+5% +4.6% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 49.8 46.2 +3.7%
2012 Romney v Obama 50.4 48.4 +2%
2008 McCain v Obama 49.4 49.7 +0.3%
2004 Bush v Kerry 56 43.6 +12.4%
2000 Bush v Gore 56 43.2 +12.8%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 10:35 AM EDT
6/21
North Carolina projected winner changed to Biden (50.1% chance of winning)