North Carolina

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/8 11:56 AM EDT 98% Reporting
Biden
Trump
Biden
Vote: 48.6%
Polls: 48.7% +1.6%
Trump
Vote: 50% +1.4%
Polls: 47.1%
1%  
99% Chance of Winning

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in North Carolina changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




North Carolina Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Toss Up

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
59.2%
Polls: 48.7% +1.6%
Trump
40.8%
Polls: 47.1%
59.2%
40.8%



Swing

 
+5.2%
From 2016 Results
+1%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.068 Testing Range: +/- 4.81%




Tipping Point



3.6%
of the time





Polls

 
48.7%
Biden (+1.6%)
47.1%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/24-10/25 Wick LV 1,000 Trump
49.4		 Biden
47.2		 +2.2% +2.2% 0.44
11/2/20 10/27-11/2 Swayable D- LV 690 Trump
46.4		 Biden
52.3		 +5.9% +5.9% 0.49
11/2/20 10/9-10/10 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 950 Trump
42		 Biden
49		 +7% +7% -
11/2/20 10/10-10/13 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 994 Trump
46		 Biden
49		 +3% +3% -
11/2/20 10/26-10/29 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,489 Trump
47		 Biden
49		 +2% +2% 0.62
11/2/20 10/29-11/1 Change Research C- LV 473 Trump
47		 Biden
49		 +2% +0.8% 0.84
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,867 Trump
47		 Biden
51		 +4% +1% -
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,867 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 Ipsos B- LV 707 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +0.6% 0.33
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 Ipsos B- LV 707 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +1.6% 0.33
11/2/20 10/30-10/31 Frederick Polls B/C LV 676 Trump
49		 Biden
51		 +2% +2% 1.02
11/2/20 10/22-10/31 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,982 Trump
48.4		 Biden
49.1		 +0.7% +0.5% 0.96
11/1/20 10/27-11/1 Data for Progress B- LV 908 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +2% 1.04
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,274 Trump
47		 Biden
52		 +5% 0% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,274 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
11/1/20 9/29-10/27 CCES / YouGov B LV 1,627 Trump
45		 Biden
49		 +4% +3.6% 0.39
11/1/20 10/29-10/31 Emerson College A- LV 855 Trump
47.1		 Biden
47.4		 +0.3% +0.1% 1.15
11/1/20 10/30-10/31 AtlasIntel B/C LV 812 Trump
49.5		 Biden
47.5		 +2% +2% 1.05
11/1/20 10/30-10/31 InsiderAdvantage B- LV 450 Trump
48		 Biden
43.6		 +4.4% +5.6% 0.99
11/1/20 10/27-10/29 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,082 Trump
49		 Biden
47		 +2% +1% 0.8
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,280 Trump
47		 Biden
52		 +5% 0% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,280 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/31/20 10/23-10/30 CNN/SSRS B/C RV 932 Trump
44		 Biden
50		 +6% +4.8% -
10/31/20 10/23-10/30 CNN/SSRS B/C LV 901 Trump
45		 Biden
51		 +6% +4.8% 0.86
10/30/20 10/24-10/27 Meeting Street Insights B/C LV 600 Trump
45		 Biden
48		 +3% +2.8% 0.76
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,356 Trump
47		 Biden
51		 +4% +1% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,356 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/30/20 10/27-10/28 East Carolina University B/C LV 1,103 Trump
47.6		 Biden
50.3		 +2.7% +2.7% 0.94
10/30/20 10/25-10/28 Marist College A+ LV 800 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +6.4% 1.08
10/30/20 10/25-10/28 Marist College A+ RV 1,049 Trump
46		 Biden
51		 +5% +5.4% -
10/30/20 10/28-10/29 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 800 Trump
48		 Biden
47		 +1% +0.6% 0.91
10/30/20 10/27-10/28 Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) LV 750 Trump
48.1		 Biden
45.9		 +2.2% +2.2% 0.55
10/30/20 10/23-10/26 Swayable D- LV 396 Trump
47.5		 Biden
50.2		 +2.7% +2.7% 0.23
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,720 Trump
47		 Biden
52		 +5% 0% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,720 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/29/20 10/26-10/29 Harris Poll C LV 903 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +2.4% 0.83
10/29/20 10/23-10/27 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 1,034 Trump
45		 Biden
48		 +3% +3.4% 1.01
10/29/20 10/20-10/26 University of Massachusetts Lowell A/B LV 911 Trump
48		 Biden
48		 0% +0.2% 0.79
10/29/20 10/17-10/20 Citizen Data LV 1,000 Trump
43.6		 Biden
50.2		 +6.5% +6.5% 0.18
10/28/20 10/26-10/27 Gravis Marketing C LV 614 Trump
46		 Biden
49		 +3% +2% 0.72
10/28/20 10/22-10/25 Harper Polling B/C LV 504 Trump
46		 Biden
47		 +1% +0.8% 0.68
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,354 Trump
47		 Biden
51		 +4% +1% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,354 Trump
45		 Biden
52		 +7% +2% -
10/27/20 10/21-10/27 Ipsos B- LV 647 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +0.6% 0.2
10/27/20 10/23-10/26 SurveyUSA A LV 627 Trump
48		 Biden
48		 0% +0.2% 0.92
10/27/20 10/21-10/27 Ipsos B- LV 647 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +0.6% 0.2
10/27/20 10/26-10/27 Public Policy Polling B V 937 Trump
47		 Biden
51		 +4% +3.6% 0.9
10/27/20 10/24-10/26 RMG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
47		 Biden
48		 +1% +1% 0.75
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,766 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,766 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,620 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,620 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/25/20 10/20-10/22 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,098 Trump
48.8		 Biden
46		 +2.8% +1.8% 0.48
10/25/20 10/20-10/23 YouGov B LV 1,022 Trump
47		 Biden
51		 +4% +3.6% 0.7
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,530 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,530 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,271 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,271 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/23/20 10/15-10/18 Data for Progress B- LV 929 Trump
44		 Biden
48		 +4% +4% 0.48
10/23/20 10/16-10/19 Meredith College B/C LV 732 Trump
44		 Biden
48.1		 +4.1% +4.1% 0.47
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,119 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,119 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/22/20 10/20-10/21 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 800 Trump
49		 Biden
48		 +1% +0.6% 0.57
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,904 Trump
47		 Biden
50		 +3% +2.8% 0.43
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,850 Trump
47		 Biden
52		 +5% 0% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,850 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/20/20 10/14-10/20 Ipsos B- LV 660 Trump
47		 Biden
49		 +2% +1.6% 0.06
10/20/20 10/16-10/19 Change Research C- LV 521 Trump
47		 Biden
50		 +3% +1.8% 0.33
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,483 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,483 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/20/20 10/14-10/20 Ipsos B- LV 660 Trump
46		 Biden
49		 +3% +2.6% 0.06
10/20/20 10/15-10/18 East Carolina University B/C LV 1,155 Trump
47.4		 Biden
50.6		 +3.2% +3.2% 0.45
10/20/20 10/12-10/17 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ LV 646 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +1.4% 0.13
10/20/20 10/12-10/17 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ RV 706 Trump
47		 Biden
50		 +3% +2.4% -
10/20/20 10/12-10/17 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ LV 646 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +0.4% 0.13
10/20/20 10/12-10/17 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ RV 706 Trump
46		 Biden
48		 +2% +1.4% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,225 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,225 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,100 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,100 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,989 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,989 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,735 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,735 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/15/20 10/13-10/14 Emerson College A- LV 721 Trump
49.2		 Biden
49.2		 0% +0.4% 0.51
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,387 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,387 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/15/20 10/11-10/14 Civiqs B/C LV 1,211 Trump
46		 Biden
51		 +5% +5% 0.32
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,112 Trump
47		 Biden
52		 +5% 0% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,112 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/14/20 10/9-10/13 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 627 Trump
42		 Biden
46		 +4% +4.4% 0.5
10/14/20 10/7-10/11 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. C LV 500 Trump
46		 Biden
48		 +2% +1% 0.12
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,912 Trump
46		 Biden
52		 +6% +1% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,912 Trump
45		 Biden
53		 +8% +3% -
10/13/20 10/7-10/11 RMG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
45		 Biden
47		 +2% +2% 0.21
10/13/20 10/7-10/13 Ipsos B- LV 660 Trump
48		 Biden
48		 0% +0.4% -
10/13/20 10/8-10/11 SurveyUSA A LV 669 Trump
45		 Biden
50		 +5% +4.8% 0.41
10/13/20 10/7-10/13 Ipsos B- LV 660 Trump
47		 Biden
48		 +1% +0.6% -
10/13/20 10/8-10/11 Monmouth University A+ LV 500 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +0.4% -
10/13/20 10/8-10/11 Monmouth University A+ LV 500 Trump
46		 Biden
50		 +4% +2.6% -
10/13/20 10/8-10/11 Monmouth University A+ RV 500 Trump
46		 Biden
49		 +3% +1.6% -
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,993 Trump
46		 Biden
50		 +4% +3.8% 0.18
10/9/20 10/4-10/6 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 938 Trump
44		 Biden
49		 +5% +5% -
10/7/20 9/30-10/5 Data for Progress B- LV 1,285 Trump
44		 Biden
51		 +7% +7% 0.11
10/6/20 9/29-10/6 Ipsos B- LV 601 Trump
47		 Biden
47		 0% +0.4% 0.09
10/6/20 10/2-10/4 East Carolina University B/C LV 1,232 Trump
47.2		 Biden
50.4		 +3.2% +3.2% 0.08
10/6/20 10/2-10/4 Change Research C- LV 396 Trump
47		 Biden
49		 +2% +0.8% -
10/5/20 10/4-10/5 Public Policy Polling B V 911 Trump
46		 Biden
50		 +4% +3.6% 0.24
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,498 Trump
47.2		 Biden
50.8		 +3.6% +1.4% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,498 Trump
49.4		 Biden
49.2		 +0.2% +5.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,466 Trump
47.8		 Biden
49.6		 +1.7% +3.3% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,466 Trump
49.5		 Biden
48.6		 +0.9% +5.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,914 Trump
48.6		 Biden
49.1		 +0.5% +4.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,914 Trump
51		 Biden
48		 +3% +8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,475 Trump
43.6		 Biden
53.7		 +10.2% +5.2% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,475 Trump
45.6		 Biden
52.2		 +6.6% +1.6% -
10/2/20 9/24-9/27 Hart Research Associates B/C LV 400 Trump
47		 Biden
49		 +2% +0.6% -
10/2/20 9/23-9/26 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,097 Trump
45		 Biden
47		 +2% +2% -
10/1/20 9/22-9/28 ALG Research B/C V 822 Trump
47		 Biden
50		 +3% +1.4% -
9/29/20 9/18-9/25 University of Massachusetts Lowell A/B LV 921 Trump
49		 Biden
48		 +1% +0.8% -
9/29/20 9/18-9/25 University of Massachusetts Lowell A/B LV 921 Trump
47		 Biden
47		 0% +0.2% -
9/28/20 9/18-9/22 Meredith College B/C RV 705 Trump
45.4		 Biden
45.7		 +0.3% +0.3% -
9/27/20 9/22-9/25 YouGov B LV 1,213 Trump
46		 Biden
48		 +2% +1.6% -
9/23/20 9/17-9/20 Harper Polling B/C LV 612 Trump
45		 Biden
44		 +1% +1.2% -
9/23/20 9/18-9/20 Change Research C- LV 579 Trump
46		 Biden
48		 +2% +0.8% -
9/22/20 9/11-9/16 Ipsos B- LV 586 Trump
47		 Biden
47		 0% +0.4% -
9/20/20 9/16-9/18 Emerson College A- LV 717 Trump
49.2		 Biden
50.8		 +1.6% +1.2% -
9/18/20 9/12-9/15 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,092 Trump
45		 Biden
47		 +2% +2% -
9/18/20 9/11-9/16 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 653 Trump
44		 Biden
45		 +1% +1.4% -
9/17/20 9/11-9/14 Suffolk University A LV 500 Trump
43.2		 Biden
47.4		 +4.2% +3.6% -
9/17/20 9/11-9/14 Suffolk University A LV 500 Trump
42.8		 Biden
46.2		 +3.4% +2.8% -
9/17/20 8/29-9/13 Kaiser Family Foundation RV 1,172 Trump
43		 Biden
45		 +2% +2% -
9/15/20 9/9-9/13 CNN/SSRS B/C LV 787 Trump
46		 Biden
49		 +3% +1.8% -
9/15/20 9/9-9/13 CNN/SSRS B/C RV 893 Trump
44		 Biden
49		 +5% +3.8% -
9/14/20 9/10-9/13 SurveyUSA A LV 596 Trump
47		 Biden
47		 0% +0.2% -
9/14/20 9/9-9/11 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,046 Trump
47.8		 Biden
46.1		 +1.7% +0.7% -
9/11/20 9/7-9/8 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 1,000 Trump
48.7		 Biden
47.9		 +0.8% +0.8% -
9/10/20 8/28-9/8 Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group LV 1,600 Trump
48		 Biden
48		 0% 0% -
9/9/20 8/29-9/7 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,592 Trump
47		 Biden
48		 +1% +0.8% -
9/9/20 9/4-9/6 Change Research C- LV 442 Trump
47		 Biden
49		 +2% +0.8% -
9/8/20 8/30-9/3 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 951 Trump
44		 Biden
43		 +1% +1% -
9/3/20 8/29-9/1 Monmouth University A+ LV 401 Trump
46		 Biden
48		 +2% +0.6% -
9/3/20 8/29-9/1 Monmouth University A+ LV 401 Trump
46		 Biden
48		 +2% +0.6% -
9/3/20 8/29-9/1 Monmouth University A+ RV 401 Trump
45		 Biden
47		 +2% +0.6% -
9/2/20 8/29-9/1 Fox News A- LV 722 Trump
46		 Biden
50		 +4% +2.6% -
9/2/20 8/29-9/1 Fox News A- RV 804 Trump
45		 Biden
49		 +4% +2.6% -
9/1/20 8/29-8/30 East Carolina University B/C LV 1,101 Trump
48.7		 Biden
46.6		 +2.1% +2.1% -
9/1/20 8/21-8/30 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,567 Trump
47		 Biden
49		 +2% +1.8% -
9/1/20 8/7-8/16 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,493 Trump
46		 Biden
49		 +3% +2.8% -
8/26/20 8/21-8/23 Change Research C- LV 560 Trump
47		 Biden
48		 +1% +0.2% -
8/24/20 8/14-8/23 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,541 Trump
46		 Biden
49		 +3% +2.8% -
8/21/20 8/16-8/17 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 967 Trump
46		 Biden
44		 +2% +2% -
8/16/20 8/12-8/13 East Carolina University B/C RV 1,255 Trump
46.9		 Biden
46.5		 +0.4% +0.4% -
8/13/20 8/6-8/10 Harper Polling B/C LV 600 Trump
44		 Biden
45		 +1% +0.8% -
8/12/20 8/7-8/9 Change Research C- LV 491 Trump
48		 Biden
47		 +1% +2.2% -
8/11/20 8/8-8/10 Emerson College A- LV 673 Trump
50.6		 Biden
49.4		 +1.2% +1.6% -
8/10/20 7/30-7/31 Public Policy Polling B V 934 Trump
46		 Biden
49		 +3% +2.6% -
8/10/20 8/6-8/7 Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 750 Trump
48.4		 Biden
47.3		 +1.1% +0.5% -
8/10/20 7/23-7/31 HIT Strategies RV 400 Trump
37		 Biden
47		 +10% +10% -
8/6/20 7/24-8/2 Data for Progress B- LV 1,170 Trump
45		 Biden
49		 +4% +4% -
8/6/20 7/24-8/2 Data for Progress B- LV 1,170 Trump
44		 Biden
46		 +2% +2% -
8/5/20 7/21-7/23 Zogby Analytics C+ LV 809 Trump
40		 Biden
44		 +4% +4.6% -
8/2/20 7/28-7/31 YouGov B LV 1,129 Trump
44		 Biden
48		 +4% +3.6% -
7/30/20 7/19-7/21 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 919 Trump
42		 Biden
43		 +1% +1% -
7/30/20 7/22-7/24 Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) LV 735 Trump
48.4		 Biden
46.8		 +1.6% +1.6% -
7/29/20 7/24-7/26 Change Research C- LV 284 Trump
46		 Biden
49		 +3% +1.8% -
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,403 Trump
49		 Biden
46		 +3% +3.2% -
7/28/20 7/23-7/24 Public Policy Polling B V 884 Trump
46		 Biden
49		 +3% +2.6% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,504 Trump
47		 Biden
47		 0% +0.2% -
7/27/20 7/14-7/22 Marist College A+ RV 882 Trump
44		 Biden
51		 +7% +7.4% -
7/22/20 7/12-7/16 Spry Strategies B/C LV 700 Trump
49		 Biden
45.5		 +3.4% +3% -
7/20/20 7/13-7/15 Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) LV 547 Trump
48.6		 Biden
47.7		 +0.9% +0.9% -
7/15/20 7/10-7/12 Change Research C- LV 655 Trump
46		 Biden
47		 +1% +0.2% -
7/10/20 4/13-4/16 GBAO B/C LV 500 Trump
46		 Biden
48		 +2% +2% -
7/9/20 7/7-7/8 Public Policy Polling B V 818 Trump
46		 Biden
50		 +4% +3.6% -
7/1/20 6/26-6/28 Change Research C- LV 468 Trump
44		 Biden
51		 +7% +5.8% -
6/30/20 6/22-6/25 East Carolina University B/C RV 1,149 Trump
43.8		 Biden
45.1		 +1.3% +1.3% -
6/25/20 6/20-6/23 Fox News A- RV 1,012 Trump
45		 Biden
47		 +2% +0.6% -
6/25/20 6/14-6/17 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 902 Trump
40		 Biden
46		 +6% +6% -
6/25/20 6/8-6/18 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ RV 653 Trump
40		 Biden
49		 +9% +9.4% -
6/24/20 6/22-6/23 Public Policy Polling B V 1,157 Trump
46		 Biden
48		 +2% +1.6% -
6/19/20 6/17-6/17 Gravis Marketing C RV 631 Trump
46		 Biden
43		 +3% +4% -
6/17/20 6/12-6/14 Change Research C- LV 378 Trump
45		 Biden
47		 +2% +0.8% -
6/4/20 6/2-6/3 Public Policy Polling B V 949 Trump
45		 Biden
49		 +4% +3.6% -
6/3/20 5/26-5/28 Harper Polling B/C LV 500 Trump
47		 Biden
44		 +3% +3.2% -
6/3/20 5/29-5/31 Change Research C- LV 806 Trump
45		 Biden
46		 +1% +0.2% -
5/26/20 5/9-5/13 Meeting Street Insights B/C RV 500 Trump
46.8		 Biden
46.6		 +0.2% +0.4% -
5/21/20 5/12-5/21 Neighborhood Research and Media B/C LV 391 Trump
42		 Biden
42		 0% +0.2% -
5/21/20 5/10-5/14 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 859 Trump
43		 Biden
45		 +2% +2% -
5/15/20 5/7-5/9 East Carolina University B/C RV 1,111 Trump
46.1		 Biden
43.2		 +2.9% +2.9% -
5/5/20 5/2-5/4 Civiqs B/C RV 1,362 Trump
46		 Biden
49		 +3% +3% -
5/1/20 4/27-4/28 Meredith College B/C RV 604 Trump
40.4		 Biden
47.4		 +7% +7% -
4/29/20 4/13-4/18 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group B/C LV 800 Trump
45		 Biden
48		 +3% +1.6% -
4/28/20 4/23-4/26 SurveyUSA A LV 580 Trump
45		 Biden
50		 +5% +4.8% -
4/23/20 4/20-4/21 Public Policy Polling B V 1,275 Trump
46		 Biden
49		 +3% +2.6% -
4/16/20 4/14-4/15 Public Policy Polling B V 1,318 Trump
47		 Biden
48		 +1% +0.6% -
4/15/20 4/5-4/7 Harper Polling B/C LV 500 Trump
49		 Biden
42		 +7% +7.2% -
3/2/20 2/15-2/19 Climate Nexus RV 675 Trump
44		 Biden
46		 +2% +2% -
3/1/20 2/27-2/28 East Carolina University B/C RV 1,288 Trump
45.5		 Biden
48.1		 +2.6% +2.6% -
3/1/20 2/23-2/27 Marist College A+ RV 2,120 Trump
45		 Biden
49		 +4% +4.4% -
2/19/20 2/13-2/16 SurveyUSA A RV 2,366 Trump
45		 Biden
49		 +4% +3.8% -
11/14/19 11/10-11/13 Fox News A- RV 1,504 Trump
43		 Biden
45		 +2% +0.6% -
11/4/19 10/13-10/26 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 651 Trump
47.9		 Biden
45.9		 +2% +1.6% -
11/4/19 10/13-10/26 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ RV 651 Trump
47.6		 Biden
45.7		 +1.9% +1.5% -
10/14/19 10/2-10/9 East Carolina University B/C RV 1,076 Trump
46.4		 Biden
49.7		 +3.3% +3.3% -
10/14/19 9/29-10/7 Meredith College B/C RV 998 Trump
38.4		 Biden
34.6		 +3.8% +3.8% -
10/9/19 10/4-10/6 Public Policy Polling B V 963 Trump
46		 Biden
51		 +5% +4.6% -
9/17/19 7/29-7/31 Fabrizio Ward LLC B/C LV 600 Trump
45		 Biden
49		 +4% +3.8% -
8/14/19 8/1-8/4 Harper Polling B/C LV 500 Trump
45		 Biden
44		 +1% +1.2% -
8/8/19 8/1-8/5 SurveyUSA A RV 2,113 Trump
41		 Biden
49		 +8% +7.8% -
6/20/19 6/17-6/18 Public Policy Polling B RV 610 Trump
46		 Biden
49		 +3% +2.6% -
6/6/19 5/25-6/1 Spry Strategies B/C LV 730 Trump
52		 Biden
41		 +11% +10.6% -
6/4/19 5/31-6/3 Emerson College A- RV 932 Trump
44.3		 Biden
55.7		 +11.4% +11% -
2/19/19 2/11-2/13 Harper Polling B/C LV 500 Trump
43		 Biden
39		 +4% +4.2% -
1/9/19 1/4-1/7 Public Policy Polling B RV 750 Trump
44		 Biden
49		 +5% +4.6% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 49.8 46.2 +3.7%
2012 Romney v Obama 50.4 48.4 +2%
2008 McCain v Obama 49.4 49.7 +0.3%
2004 Bush v Kerry 56 43.6 +12.4%
2000 Bush v Gore 56 43.2 +12.8%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/2 11:54 PM EDT
11/1
North Carolina changed from Lean Biden to Toss Up
10/31
North Carolina changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden
6/21
North Carolina projected winner changed to Biden (50.1% chance of winning)