North Dakota

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 36.7%
Trump
100%
Polls: 56.9% +20.2%
100%



Swing

 
+15.6%
From 2016 Results
+4.1%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
36.7%
Biden
56.9%
Trump (+20.2%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 595 Trump
59
Biden
40
+19% +24% 0.1
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 595 Trump
58
Biden
41
+17% +22% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 554 Trump
59
Biden
40
+19% +24% 0.08
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 554 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 550 Trump
59
Biden
40
+19% +24% 0.06
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 550 Trump
59
Biden
40
+19% +24% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 548 Trump
60
Biden
39
+21% +26% 0.05
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 548 Trump
60
Biden
39
+21% +26% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 535 Trump
59
Biden
40
+19% +24% 0.03
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 535 Trump
59
Biden
40
+19% +24% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 530 Trump
60
Biden
39
+21% +26% 0.02
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 530 Trump
59
Biden
40
+19% +24% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 511 Trump
59
Biden
40
+19% +24% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 511 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 490 Trump
59
Biden
40
+19% +24% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 490 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 481 Trump
60
Biden
39
+21% +26% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 481 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 477 Trump
60
Biden
38
+22% +27% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 477 Trump
60
Biden
38
+22% +27% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 457 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 457 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 414 Trump
60
Biden
38
+22% +27% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 414 Trump
60
Biden
38
+22% +27% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 386 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 386 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 376 Trump
61
Biden
37
+24% +29% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 376 Trump
61
Biden
37
+24% +29% -
10/5/20 9/26-9/29 DFM Research B/C A 460 Trump
51
Biden
37
+14% +15.6% 0.32
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 88 Trump
64.7
Biden
34.5
+30.3% +35.3% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 88 Trump
71.2
Biden
28
+43.2% +48.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 261 Trump
61.7
Biden
36.5
+25.2% +30.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 261 Trump
63
Biden
35.7
+27.3% +32.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 269 Trump
66.3
Biden
31.6
+34.6% +39.6% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 269 Trump
66
Biden
32
+34% +39% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 249 Trump
62.1
Biden
35
+27.1% +32.1% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 249 Trump
63.3
Biden
33.7
+29.7% +34.7% -
9/29/20 9/12-9/16 DFM Research B/C LV 500 Trump
56
Biden
37
+19% +20.6% 0.16
3/9/20 3/3-3/5 DFM Research B/C LV 400 Trump
55
Biden
38
+17% +18.6% -
2/6/20 1/28-2/1 DFM Research B/C LV 392 Trump
57
Biden
38
+19% +20.6% -
2/6/20 1/28-2/1 DFM Research B/C A 600 Trump
59
Biden
34
+25% +26.6% -
8/8/19 7/15-7/17 1892 Polling B/C LV 500 Trump
60
Biden
34
+26% +26% -
8/1/19 5/14-5/18 DFM Research B/C A 400 Trump
54
Biden
39
+15% +16.6% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 63 27.2 +35.7%
2012 Romney v Obama 58.3 38.7 +19.6%
2008 McCain v Obama 53.3 44.6 +8.6%
2004 Bush v Kerry 62.9 35.5 +27.4%
2000 Bush v Gore 60.7 33.1 +27.6%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 9:59 AM EDT
10/5
North Dakota polls jumped 4.2% toward Biden (was R+23.5%, now R+19.3%)
10/3
North Dakota polls jumped 6.2% toward Biden (was R+29.7%, now R+23.5%)
9/29
North Dakota polls jumped 9% toward Biden (was R+38.6%, now R+29.6%)
8/27
North Dakota polls jumped 1.7% toward Biden (was R+40%, now R+38.3%)