North Dakota

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/5 1:14 PM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in North Dakota changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




North Dakota Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 36.5%
Trump
100%
Polls: 59.3% +22.8%
100%



Swing

 
+13%
From 2016 Results
+1.5%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
36.5%
Biden
59.3%
Trump (+22.8%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 370 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% 0.22
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 370 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 399 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% 0.2
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 399 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 398 Trump
60		 Biden
38		 +22% +27% 0.19
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 398 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 399 Trump
60		 Biden
38		 +22% +27% 0.17
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 399 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 700 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% 0.06
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 700 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 654 Trump
58		 Biden
41		 +17% +22% 0.04
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 654 Trump
58		 Biden
41		 +17% +22% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 595 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 595 Trump
58		 Biden
41		 +17% +22% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 554 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 554 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 550 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 550 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 548 Trump
60		 Biden
39		 +21% +26% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 548 Trump
60		 Biden
39		 +21% +26% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 535 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 535 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 530 Trump
60		 Biden
39		 +21% +26% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 530 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 511 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 511 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 490 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 490 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 481 Trump
60		 Biden
39		 +21% +26% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 481 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 477 Trump
60		 Biden
38		 +22% +27% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 477 Trump
60		 Biden
38		 +22% +27% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 457 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 457 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 414 Trump
60		 Biden
38		 +22% +27% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 414 Trump
60		 Biden
38		 +22% +27% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 386 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 386 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 376 Trump
61		 Biden
37		 +24% +29% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 376 Trump
61		 Biden
37		 +24% +29% -
10/5/20 9/26-9/29 DFM Research B/C A 460 Trump
51		 Biden
37		 +14% +15.6% 0.25
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 88 Trump
64.7		 Biden
34.5		 +30.3% +35.3% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 88 Trump
71.2		 Biden
28		 +43.2% +48.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 261 Trump
61.7		 Biden
36.5		 +25.2% +30.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 261 Trump
63		 Biden
35.7		 +27.3% +32.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 269 Trump
66.3		 Biden
31.6		 +34.6% +39.6% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 269 Trump
66		 Biden
32		 +34% +39% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 249 Trump
62.1		 Biden
35		 +27.1% +32.1% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 249 Trump
63.3		 Biden
33.7		 +29.7% +34.7% -
9/29/20 9/12-9/16 DFM Research B/C LV 500 Trump
56		 Biden
37		 +19% +20.6% 0.09
3/9/20 3/3-3/5 DFM Research B/C LV 400 Trump
55		 Biden
38		 +17% +18.6% -
2/6/20 1/28-2/1 DFM Research B/C LV 392 Trump
57		 Biden
38		 +19% +20.6% -
2/6/20 1/28-2/1 DFM Research B/C A 600 Trump
59		 Biden
34		 +25% +26.6% -
8/8/19 7/15-7/17 1892 Polling B/C LV 500 Trump
60		 Biden
34		 +26% +26% -
8/1/19 5/14-5/18 DFM Research B/C A 400 Trump
54		 Biden
39		 +15% +16.6% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 63 27.2 +35.7%
2012 Romney v Obama 58.3 38.7 +19.6%
2008 McCain v Obama 53.3 44.6 +8.6%
2004 Bush v Kerry 62.9 35.5 +27.4%
2000 Bush v Gore 60.7 33.1 +27.6%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 8:46 AM EDT
10/5
North Dakota polls jumped 4.2% toward Biden (was R+23.5%, now R+19.3%)
10/3
North Dakota polls jumped 6.2% toward Biden (was R+29.7%, now R+23.5%)
9/29
North Dakota polls jumped 9% toward Biden (was R+38.6%, now R+29.6%)
8/27
North Dakota polls jumped 1.7% toward Biden (was R+40%, now R+38.3%)