Ohio

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Toss Up

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
37%
Polls: 46.6%
Trump
63%
Polls: 47.5% +0.9%
37%
63%



Swing

 
+7.2%
From 2016 Results
+0.5%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.388 Testing Range: +/- 5.55%




Tipping Point



3%
of the time





Polls

 
46.6%
Biden
47.5%
Trump (+0.9%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,825 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% 0.08
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,825 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,598 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,598 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,509 Trump
51
Biden
48
+3% +8% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,509 Trump
49
Biden
48
+1% +6% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,411 Trump
51
Biden
48
+3% +8% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,411 Trump
49
Biden
48
+1% +6% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,290 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,290 Trump
49
Biden
48
+1% +6% -
10/23/20 9/28-10/1 OnMessage Inc. B/C LV 800 Trump
47.5
Biden
47
+0.5% +0.9% 0.3
10/23/20 8/31-9/3 OnMessage Inc. B/C LV 800 Trump
50.5
Biden
44.8
+5.7% +4.3% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,033 Trump
51
Biden
48
+3% +8% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,033 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,271 Trump
49
Biden
47
+2% +2.2% 0.74
10/21/20 10/17-10/20 Fox News A- RV 1,102 Trump
46
Biden
44
+2% +3.4% -
10/21/20 10/17-10/20 Fox News A- LV 1,018 Trump
48
Biden
45
+3% +4.4% 0.94
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,702 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,702 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,376 Trump
51
Biden
48
+3% +8% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,376 Trump
49
Biden
48
+1% +6% -
10/20/20 10/18-10/19 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 800 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +2.6% 0.78
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,191 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,191 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,090 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,090 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,003 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,003 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,659 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,659 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,382 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,382 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/15/20 10/8-10/11 Civiqs B/C LV 586 Trump
50
Biden
47
+3% +3% 0.52
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,190 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,190 Trump
50
Biden
47
+3% +8% -
10/14/20 10/8-10/12 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,160 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +0.8% 0.64
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,056 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +9% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,056 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,283 Trump
49
Biden
46
+3% +3.2% 0.47
10/11/20 9/30-10/8 Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll) C/D LV 1,009 Trump
47
Biden
45.4
+1.6% +2.4% 0.24
10/7/20 10/2-10/6 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 661 Trump
44
Biden
45
+1% +1.4% 0.59
10/5/20 10/1-10/3 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,035 Trump
47.6
Biden
43.9
+3.7% +2.7% 0.26
10/4/20 9/30-10/2 YouGov B LV 1,114 Trump
47
Biden
47
+0% +0.4% 0.41
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,610 Trump
47.8
Biden
50
+2.2% +2.8% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,610 Trump
49.6
Biden
48.6
+1% +6% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,694 Trump
51.1
Biden
46.6
+4.6% +9.6% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,694 Trump
51.8
Biden
46.5
+5.3% +10.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,220 Trump
50.1
Biden
47.6
+2.5% +7.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,220 Trump
50.8
Biden
47.5
+3.2% +8.2% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,012 Trump
49.7
Biden
47.6
+2.1% +7.1% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,012 Trump
51.1
Biden
46.9
+4.2% +9.2% -
10/2/20 9/24-9/27 Hart Research Associates B/C LV 400 Trump
49
Biden
47
+2% +3.4% 0.22
10/1/20 8/26-9/1 ALG Research B/C LV 500 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +0.4% -
9/28/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,220 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
9/28/20 9/1-9/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,092 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
9/24/20 9/20-9/23 Fox News A- RV 907 Trump
44
Biden
49
+5% +3.6% -
9/24/20 9/20-9/23 Fox News A- LV 830 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +3.6% 0.32
9/24/20 9/17-9/21 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,085 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +0.8% 0.23
9/23/20 9/8-9/22 Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll) C/D LV 1,011 Trump
44.3
Biden
44.9
+0.6% +0.2% -
9/18/20 9/11-9/15 Civiqs B/C RV 556 Trump
48
Biden
45
+3% +3% 0.13
9/9/20 8/29-9/7 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,963 Trump
50
Biden
45
+5% +5.2% -
9/8/20 9/1-9/2 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 1,000 Trump
47
Biden
50.9
+3.8% +5.4% -
9/1/20 8/21-8/30 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,811 Trump
50
Biden
45
+5% +5.2% -
9/1/20 8/7-8/16 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,744 Trump
49
Biden
45
+4% +4.2% -
8/24/20 7/28-8/3 TargetSmart B/C LV 1,249 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +0.4% -
8/21/20 8/13-8/17 Civiqs B/C RV 637 Trump
47
Biden
47
+0% +0% -
8/5/20 7/21-7/23 Zogby Analytics C+ LV 805 Trump
41
Biden
43
+2% +2.6% -
8/3/20 6/24-7/15 Center for Marketing and Opinion Research/University of Akron RV 1,037 Trump
41.7
Biden
45.9
+4.2% +4.2% -
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,720 Trump
50
Biden
42
+8% +8.2% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,741 Trump
48
Biden
45
+3% +3.2% -
7/26/20 7/21-7/24 YouGov B LV 1,211 Trump
46
Biden
45
+1% +1.4% -
7/21/20 7/15-7/16 Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 750 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +5.6% -
6/24/20 6/18-6/22 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 1,139 Trump
45
Biden
46
+1% +0.8% -
6/3/20 5/30-6/2 Fox News A- RV 803 Trump
43
Biden
45
+2% +0.6% 0.06
5/11/20 5/8-5/10 Emerson College A- RV 725 Trump
51.4
Biden
48.6
+2.7% +3.1% -
4/27/20 4/20-4/25 Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll) C/D RV 797 Trump
44.2
Biden
44.9
+0.7% +0.1% -
3/26/20 3/17-3/25 Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll) C/D RV 1,025 Trump
47.2
Biden
42.9
+4.3% +5.1% -
3/16/20 3/10-3/13 Marist College A+ RV 1,710 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +4.4% 0.14
10/14/19 10/1-10/7 Climate Nexus RV 1,112 Trump
47
Biden
53
+6% +6% -
10/14/19 10/10-10/11 Public Policy Polling B V 776 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +1.6% -
10/3/19 9/29-10/2 Emerson College A- RV 837 Trump
47.4
Biden
52.6
+5.2% +4.8% -
7/25/19 7/17-7/22 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 1,431 Trump
42
Biden
50
+8% +7.8% -
12/6/18 11/27-11/28 Public Policy Polling B V 648 Trump
44
Biden
48
+4% +3.6% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 51.7 43.6 +8.1%
2012 Romney v Obama 47.7 50.7 +3%
2008 McCain v Obama 46.9 51.5 +4.6%
2004 Bush v Kerry 50.8 48.7 +2.1%
2000 Bush v Gore 50 46.5 +3.5%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 10:31 AM EDT
10/2
Ohio polling average leader changed to Trump (+0.3%)
9/24
Ohio polling average leader changed to Biden (+0.3%)
9/9
Ohio polling average leader changed to Trump (+0.8%)
9/8
Ohio polls jumped 1.5% toward Biden (was R+1.1%, now D+0.4%)
Ohio polling average leader changed to Biden (+0.4%)
9/1
Ohio polls jumped 2% toward Trump (was D+0.9%, now R+1.1%)
Ohio polling average leader changed to Trump (+1.1%)