Ohio

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/5 4:32 PM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Ohio changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Ohio Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Toss Up

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
36.6%
Polls: 46.7%
Trump
63.4%
Polls: 48.1% +1.4%
36.6%
63.4%



Swing

 
+6.7%
From 2016 Results
+0%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.159 Testing Range: +/- 5.05%




Tipping Point



2.4%
of the time





Polls

 
46.7%
Biden
48.1%
Trump (+1.4%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/24-10/25 Wick LV 1,000 Trump
49.4		 Biden
46.5		 +2.9% +2.9% 0.53
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 Swayable D- LV 516 Trump
52.3		 Biden
47.1		 +5.2% +5.2% 0.54
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,305 Trump
50		 Biden
47		 +3% +8% 0.17
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,305 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
11/2/20 10/29-10/30 AtlasIntel B/C LV 660 Trump
50.4		 Biden
46.5		 +3.9% +3.9% 0.96
11/2/20 10/28-11/1 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,440 Trump
43		 Biden
47		 +4% +3.8% 1.15
11/2/20 10/31-11/1 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 800 Trump
49		 Biden
45		 +4% +2.4% 1.07
11/2/20 10/31-11/1 Research Co. B- LV 450 Trump
47		 Biden
47		 0% +0.6% 1.05
11/2/20 10/30-10/31 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,041 Trump
49.2		 Biden
44.4		 +4.8% +3.8% 0.97
11/2/20 10/22-10/31 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,179 Trump
49.2		 Biden
46.6		 +2.6% +2.8% 0.98
11/1/20 10/29-11/1 Civiqs B/C LV 1,136 Trump
49		 Biden
48		 +1% +1% 1.09
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,468 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% 0.14
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,468 Trump
49		 Biden
48		 +1% +6% -
11/1/20 10/29-10/31 Emerson College A- LV 656 Trump
48.7		 Biden
49.6		 +0.9% +0.5% 1.11
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,321 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% 0.11
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,321 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,092 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% 0.08
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,092 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/30/20 10/23-10/26 Swayable D- LV 440 Trump
55.3		 Biden
43.6		 +11.7% +11.7% 0.35
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,089 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,089 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/29/20 10/23-10/27 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,186 Trump
43		 Biden
48		 +5% +4.8% 0.89
10/29/20 10/27-10/28 Gravis Marketing C LV 613 Trump
49		 Biden
47		 +2% +3% 0.8
10/29/20 10/17-10/20 Citizen Data LV 1,000 Trump
44.4		 Biden
43.2		 +1.2% +1.2% 0.3
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,825 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,825 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,598 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,598 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,509 Trump
51		 Biden
48		 +3% +8% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,509 Trump
49		 Biden
48		 +1% +6% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,411 Trump
51		 Biden
48		 +3% +8% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,411 Trump
49		 Biden
48		 +1% +6% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,290 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,290 Trump
49		 Biden
48		 +1% +6% -
10/23/20 9/28-10/1 OnMessage Inc. B/C LV 800 Trump
47.5		 Biden
47		 +0.5% +0.9% 0.15
10/23/20 8/31-9/3 OnMessage Inc. B/C LV 800 Trump
50.5		 Biden
44.8		 +5.7% +4.3% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,033 Trump
51		 Biden
48		 +3% +8% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,033 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,271 Trump
49		 Biden
47		 +2% +2.2% 0.53
10/21/20 10/17-10/20 Fox News A- RV 1,102 Trump
46		 Biden
44		 +2% +3.4% -
10/21/20 10/17-10/20 Fox News A- LV 1,018 Trump
48		 Biden
45		 +3% +4.4% 0.73
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,702 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,702 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,376 Trump
51		 Biden
48		 +3% +8% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,376 Trump
49		 Biden
48		 +1% +6% -
10/20/20 10/18-10/19 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 800 Trump
47		 Biden
48		 +1% +2.6% 0.58
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,191 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,191 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,090 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,090 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,003 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,003 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,659 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,659 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,382 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,382 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/15/20 10/8-10/11 Civiqs B/C LV 586 Trump
50		 Biden
47		 +3% +3% 0.34
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,190 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,190 Trump
50		 Biden
47		 +3% +8% -
10/14/20 10/8-10/12 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,160 Trump
47		 Biden
48		 +1% +0.8% 0.44
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,056 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,056 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,283 Trump
49		 Biden
46		 +3% +3.2% 0.3
10/11/20 9/30-10/8 Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll) C/D LV 1,009 Trump
47		 Biden
45.4		 +1.6% +2.4% -
10/7/20 10/2-10/6 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 661 Trump
44		 Biden
45		 +1% +1.4% 0.43
10/5/20 10/1-10/3 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,035 Trump
47.6		 Biden
43.9		 +3.7% +2.7% -
10/4/20 9/30-10/2 YouGov B LV 1,114 Trump
47		 Biden
47		 0% +0.4% 0.24
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,610 Trump
47.8		 Biden
50		 +2.2% +2.8% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,610 Trump
49.6		 Biden
48.6		 +1% +6% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,694 Trump
51.1		 Biden
46.6		 +4.6% +9.6% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,694 Trump
51.8		 Biden
46.5		 +5.3% +10.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,220 Trump
50.1		 Biden
47.6		 +2.5% +7.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,220 Trump
50.8		 Biden
47.5		 +3.2% +8.2% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,012 Trump
49.7		 Biden
47.6		 +2.1% +7.1% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,012 Trump
51.1		 Biden
46.9		 +4.2% +9.2% -
10/2/20 9/24-9/27 Hart Research Associates B/C LV 400 Trump
49		 Biden
47		 +2% +3.4% 0.07
10/1/20 8/26-9/1 ALG Research B/C LV 500 Trump
46		 Biden
48		 +2% +0.4% -
9/28/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,220 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
9/28/20 9/1-9/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,092 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
9/24/20 9/20-9/23 Fox News A- RV 907 Trump
44		 Biden
49		 +5% +3.6% -
9/24/20 9/20-9/23 Fox News A- LV 830 Trump
45		 Biden
50		 +5% +3.6% 0.19
9/24/20 9/17-9/21 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,085 Trump
47		 Biden
48		 +1% +0.8% 0.09
9/23/20 9/8-9/22 Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll) C/D LV 1,011 Trump
44.3		 Biden
44.9		 +0.6% +0.2% -
9/18/20 9/11-9/15 Civiqs B/C RV 556 Trump
48		 Biden
45		 +3% +3% -
9/9/20 8/29-9/7 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,963 Trump
50		 Biden
45		 +5% +5.2% -
9/8/20 9/1-9/2 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 1,000 Trump
47		 Biden
50.9		 +3.8% +5.4% -
9/1/20 8/21-8/30 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,811 Trump
50		 Biden
45		 +5% +5.2% -
9/1/20 8/7-8/16 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,744 Trump
49		 Biden
45		 +4% +4.2% -
8/24/20 7/28-8/3 TargetSmart B/C LV 1,249 Trump
46		 Biden
47		 +1% +0.4% -
8/21/20 8/13-8/17 Civiqs B/C RV 637 Trump
47		 Biden
47		 0% 0% -
8/5/20 7/21-7/23 Zogby Analytics C+ LV 805 Trump
41		 Biden
43		 +2% +2.6% -
8/3/20 6/24-7/15 Center for Marketing and Opinion Research/University of Akron RV 1,037 Trump
41.7		 Biden
45.9		 +4.2% +4.2% -
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,720 Trump
50		 Biden
42		 +8% +8.2% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,741 Trump
48		 Biden
45		 +3% +3.2% -
7/26/20 7/21-7/24 YouGov B LV 1,211 Trump
46		 Biden
45		 +1% +1.4% -
7/21/20 7/15-7/16 Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 750 Trump
46		 Biden
50		 +4% +5.6% -
6/24/20 6/18-6/22 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 1,139 Trump
45		 Biden
46		 +1% +0.8% -
6/3/20 5/30-6/2 Fox News A- RV 803 Trump
43		 Biden
45		 +2% +0.6% -
5/11/20 5/8-5/10 Emerson College A- RV 725 Trump
51.4		 Biden
48.6		 +2.7% +3.1% -
4/27/20 4/20-4/25 Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll) C/D RV 797 Trump
44.2		 Biden
44.9		 +0.7% +0.1% -
3/26/20 3/17-3/25 Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll) C/D RV 1,025 Trump
47.2		 Biden
42.9		 +4.3% +5.1% -
3/16/20 3/10-3/13 Marist College A+ RV 1,710 Trump
45		 Biden
49		 +4% +4.4% 0.06
10/14/19 10/1-10/7 Climate Nexus RV 1,112 Trump
47		 Biden
53		 +6% +6% -
10/14/19 10/10-10/11 Public Policy Polling B V 776 Trump
46		 Biden
48		 +2% +1.6% -
10/3/19 9/29-10/2 Emerson College A- RV 837 Trump
47.4		 Biden
52.6		 +5.2% +4.8% -
7/25/19 7/17-7/22 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 1,431 Trump
42		 Biden
50		 +8% +7.8% -
12/6/18 11/27-11/28 Public Policy Polling B V 648 Trump
44		 Biden
48		 +4% +3.6% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 51.7 43.6 +8.1%
2012 Romney v Obama 47.7 50.7 +3%
2008 McCain v Obama 46.9 51.5 +4.6%
2004 Bush v Kerry 50.8 48.7 +2.1%
2000 Bush v Gore 50 46.5 +3.5%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/2 11:56 PM EDT
10/2
Ohio polling average leader changed to Trump (+0.3%)
9/24
Ohio polling average leader changed to Biden (+0.3%)
9/9
Ohio polling average leader changed to Trump (+0.8%)
9/8
Ohio polls jumped 1.5% toward Biden (was R+1.1%, now D+0.4%)
Ohio polling average leader changed to Biden (+0.4%)
9/1
Ohio polls jumped 2% toward Trump (was D+0.9%, now R+1.1%)
Ohio polling average leader changed to Trump (+1.1%)