Oklahoma

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 12/10 11:48 AM EST
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Oklahoma changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Oklahoma Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 34.2%
Trump
100%
Polls: 63.1% +28.9%
100%



Swing

 
+7.5%
From 2016 Results
+5.9%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
34.2%
Biden
63.1%
Trump (+28.9%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,745 Trump
64		 Biden
35		 +29% +34% 0.26
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,745 Trump
62		 Biden
36		 +26% +31% -
11/1/20 10/17-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,880 Trump
64		 Biden
35		 +29% +34% 0.22
11/1/20 10/17-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,880 Trump
62		 Biden
36		 +26% +31% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,865 Trump
63		 Biden
36		 +27% +32% 0.21
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,865 Trump
62		 Biden
37		 +25% +30% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,866 Trump
64		 Biden
35		 +29% +34% 0.19
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,866 Trump
62		 Biden
37		 +25% +30% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,191 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% 0.07
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,191 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,082 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% 0.05
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,082 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,790 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% 0.02
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,790 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,762 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,762 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,746 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,746 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,670 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,670 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/23/20 8/13-8/31 SoonerPoll B/C LV 379 Trump
59.6		 Biden
34.7		 +24.9% +26.9% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,471 Trump
58		 Biden
41		 +17% +22% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,471 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% -
10/21/20 10/15-10/20 SoonerPoll B/C LV 5,466 Trump
58.5		 Biden
36.5		 +22% +24% 0.71
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,380 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,380 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,289 Trump
58		 Biden
41		 +17% +22% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,289 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,196 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,196 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,144 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,144 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,102 Trump
58		 Biden
41		 +17% +22% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,102 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,015 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,015 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,882 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,882 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,804 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,804 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,683 Trump
60		 Biden
39		 +21% +26% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,683 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 591 Trump
58.3		 Biden
39.9		 +18.4% +23.4% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 591 Trump
61.4		 Biden
37		 +24.4% +29.4% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,410 Trump
62.3		 Biden
35.4		 +26.9% +31.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,410 Trump
64.2		 Biden
34.4		 +29.8% +34.8% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,009 Trump
61.9		 Biden
35.8		 +26.1% +31.1% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,009 Trump
63.8		 Biden
34.6		 +29.1% +34.1% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,174 Trump
61.8		 Biden
35.9		 +25.9% +30.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,174 Trump
63.1		 Biden
35.2		 +27.9% +32.9% -
9/24/20 9/17-9/20 Amber Integrated LV 500 Trump
55		 Biden
33		 +22% +22% -
9/9/20 9/2-9/8 SoonerPoll B/C LV 486 Trump
59.6		 Biden
35.2		 +24.4% +26.4% -
8/6/20 7/29-7/30 DFM Research B/C LV 572 Trump
56		 Biden
36		 +20% +21.6% -
6/8/20 6/3-6/4 Amber Integrated LV 500 Trump
55		 Biden
36		 +19% +19% -
3/11/20 3/5-3/8 Amber Integrated LV 500 Trump
57		 Biden
33		 +24% +24% -
2/18/20 2/10-2/13 Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates B/C RV 500 Trump
62		 Biden
34		 +28% +28.2% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 65.3 28.9 +36.4%
2012 Romney v Obama 66.8 33.2 +33.5%
2008 McCain v Obama 65.7 34.4 +31.3%
2004 Bush v Kerry 65.6 34.4 +31.1%
2000 Bush v Gore 60.3 38.4 +21.9%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 2:15 AM EST
10/30
Oklahoma polls jumped 1.7% toward Trump (was R+24.1%, now R+25.8%)
10/3
Oklahoma polls jumped 2% toward Biden (was R+28.1%, now R+26.1%)
9/24
Oklahoma polls jumped 2% toward Biden (was R+28.9%, now R+26.9%)