Oregon

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 56.9% +17.4%
Trump
0%
Polls: 39.5%
100%



Swing

 
+6.4%
From 2016 Results
+6.7%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.833 Testing Range: +/- 4.27%






Polls

 
56.9%
Biden (+17.4%)
39.5%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,932 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% 0.12
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,932 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,862 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% 0.1
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,862 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,803 Trump
38		 Biden
61		 +23% +18% 0.09
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,803 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,716 Trump
38		 Biden
61		 +23% +18% 0.06
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,716 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,512 Trump
38		 Biden
61		 +23% +18% 0.05
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,512 Trump
39		 Biden
60		 +21% +16% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,175 Trump
38		 Biden
61		 +23% +18% 0.03
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,175 Trump
39		 Biden
60		 +21% +16% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,909 Trump
38		 Biden
61		 +23% +18% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,909 Trump
39		 Biden
60		 +21% +16% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,754 Trump
38		 Biden
61		 +23% +18% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,754 Trump
39		 Biden
60		 +21% +16% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,689 Trump
38		 Biden
61		 +23% +18% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,689 Trump
39		 Biden
60		 +21% +16% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,607 Trump
38		 Biden
61		 +23% +18% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,607 Trump
39		 Biden
59		 +20% +15% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,444 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,444 Trump
39		 Biden
59		 +20% +15% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,273 Trump
39		 Biden
60		 +21% +16% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,273 Trump
40		 Biden
59		 +19% +14% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,041 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,041 Trump
39		 Biden
59		 +20% +15% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,902 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,902 Trump
39		 Biden
59		 +20% +15% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 872 Trump
38.2		 Biden
59		 +20.8% +15.8% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 872 Trump
39.2		 Biden
58.6		 +19.4% +14.4% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,890 Trump
38.9		 Biden
59.7		 +20.8% +15.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,890 Trump
37.8		 Biden
61.1		 +23.3% +18.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,648 Trump
37		 Biden
59.8		 +22.8% +17.8% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,648 Trump
37.7		 Biden
60.2		 +22.5% +17.5% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,109 Trump
37.9		 Biden
59.5		 +21.6% +16.6% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,109 Trump
37.5		 Biden
60.6		 +23.1% +18.1% -
9/30/20 9/26-9/29 Civiqs B/C LV 944 Trump
39		 Biden
56		 +17% +17% 0.32
9/11/20 9/3-9/8 DHM Research B/C LV 502 Trump
39		 Biden
51		 +12% +12.2% 0.08


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 39.1 50.1 +11%
2012 Romney v Obama 42.2 54.2 +12.1%
2008 McCain v Obama 40.4 56.8 +16.4%
2004 Bush v Kerry 47.2 51.4 +4.2%
2000 Bush v Gore 46.5 47 +0.4%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 10:14 AM EDT
9/2
Oregon changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden