Oregon

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/21 2:56 PM EST
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Oregon changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





Oregon Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 57.8% +17.9%
Trump
0%
Polls: 39.9%
100%



Swing

 
+6.9%
From 2016 Results
+7.2%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
57.8%
Biden (+17.9%)
39.9%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/23-11/1 Swayable D- LV 324 Trump
37.2
Biden
60.4
+23.2% +23.2% 0.49
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,252 Trump
39
Biden
59
+20% +15% 0.27
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,252 Trump
39
Biden
59
+20% +15% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,451 Trump
39
Biden
59
+20% +15% 0.25
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,451 Trump
39
Biden
59
+20% +15% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,468 Trump
39
Biden
60
+21% +16% 0.22
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,468 Trump
39
Biden
59
+20% +15% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,425 Trump
39
Biden
59
+20% +15% 0.19
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,425 Trump
39
Biden
59
+20% +15% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,422 Trump
38
Biden
61
+23% +18% 0.07
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,422 Trump
38
Biden
60
+22% +17% -
10/28/20 9/29-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,193 Trump
38
Biden
61
+23% +18% 0.04
10/28/20 9/29-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,193 Trump
38
Biden
60
+22% +17% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,932 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,932 Trump
38
Biden
60
+22% +17% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,862 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,862 Trump
38
Biden
60
+22% +17% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,803 Trump
38
Biden
61
+23% +18% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,803 Trump
38
Biden
60
+22% +17% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,716 Trump
38
Biden
61
+23% +18% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,716 Trump
38
Biden
60
+22% +17% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,512 Trump
38
Biden
61
+23% +18% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,512 Trump
39
Biden
60
+21% +16% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,175 Trump
38
Biden
61
+23% +18% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,175 Trump
39
Biden
60
+21% +16% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,909 Trump
38
Biden
61
+23% +18% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,909 Trump
39
Biden
60
+21% +16% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,754 Trump
38
Biden
61
+23% +18% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,754 Trump
39
Biden
60
+21% +16% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,689 Trump
38
Biden
61
+23% +18% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,689 Trump
39
Biden
60
+21% +16% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,607 Trump
38
Biden
61
+23% +18% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,607 Trump
39
Biden
59
+20% +15% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,444 Trump
38
Biden
60
+22% +17% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,444 Trump
39
Biden
59
+20% +15% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,273 Trump
39
Biden
60
+21% +16% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,273 Trump
40
Biden
59
+19% +14% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,041 Trump
38
Biden
60
+22% +17% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,041 Trump
39
Biden
59
+20% +15% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,902 Trump
38
Biden
60
+22% +17% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,902 Trump
39
Biden
59
+20% +15% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 872 Trump
38.2
Biden
59
+20.8% +15.8% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 872 Trump
39.2
Biden
58.6
+19.4% +14.4% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,890 Trump
38.9
Biden
59.7
+20.8% +15.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,890 Trump
37.8
Biden
61.1
+23.3% +18.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,648 Trump
37
Biden
59.8
+22.8% +17.8% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,648 Trump
37.7
Biden
60.2
+22.5% +17.5% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,109 Trump
37.9
Biden
59.5
+21.6% +16.6% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,109 Trump
37.5
Biden
60.6
+23.1% +18.1% -
9/30/20 9/26-9/29 Civiqs B/C LV 944 Trump
39
Biden
56
+17% +17% 0.23
9/11/20 9/3-9/8 DHM Research B/C LV 502 Trump
39
Biden
51
+12% +12.2% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 39.1 50.1 +11%
2012 Romney v Obama 42.2 54.2 +12.1%
2008 McCain v Obama 40.4 56.8 +16.4%
2004 Bush v Kerry 47.2 51.4 +4.2%
2000 Bush v Gore 46.5 47 +0.4%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 4:13 AM EST
11/2
Oregon polls jumped 1.8% toward Biden (was D+16.1%, now D+17.9%)
9/2
Oregon changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden