Pennsylvania

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Likely Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
89.6%
Polls: 50.2% +5.4%
Trump
10.4%
Polls: 44.8%
89.6%
10.4%



Swing

 
+6.1%
From 2016 Results
+2.4%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.005 Testing Range: +/- 4.63%




Tipping Point



46%
of the time





Polls

 
50.2%
Biden (+5.4%)
44.8%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/27/20 10/23-10/26 Civiqs B/C LV 1,145 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +7% 1.06
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,986 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,986 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
10/26/20 10/20-10/26 Ipsos B- LV 655 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +6.6% 0.37
10/26/20 10/20-10/26 Ipsos B- LV 655 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +4.6% 0.37
10/26/20 10/25-10/25 InsiderAdvantage B- LV 400 Trump
48.4
Biden
45.5
+2.9% +4.1% 1.01
10/26/20 10/13-10/21 YouGov B RV 736 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +6.6% -
10/26/20 10/13-10/21 YouGov B LV 669 Trump
44
Biden
52
+8% +7.6% 0.77
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,903 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,903 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,777 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,777 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/24/20 10/23-10/23 Gravis Marketing C LV 602 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +6% 0.86
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,615 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,615 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/23/20 10/13-10/20 Muhlenberg College A+ LV 416 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +7.2% 0.88
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,301 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,301 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
10/22/20 10/21-10/22 Public Policy Polling B V 890 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +4.6% 0.94
10/22/20 2/27-3/3 Civiqs B/C A 2,462 Trump
48
Biden
46
+2% +2% -
10/22/20 3/14-3/18 Civiqs B/C A 1,589 Trump
48
Biden
46
+2% +2% -
10/22/20 4/4-4/8 Civiqs B/C A 1,912 Trump
47
Biden
47
+0% +0% -
10/22/20 5/30-6/2 Civiqs B/C A 2,045 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +3% -
10/22/20 6/6-6/11 Civiqs B/C A 1,221 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +3% -
10/22/20 10/17-10/21 Civiqs B/C A 1,577 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +6% 0.8
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,563 Trump
43
Biden
52
+9% +8.8% 0.7
10/21/20 10/17-10/20 Fox News A- RV 1,106 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +3.6% -
10/21/20 10/17-10/20 Fox News A- LV 1,045 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +3.6% 0.93
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,131 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,131 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
10/21/20 10/15-10/20 CNN/SSRS B/C RV 925 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +3.8% -
10/21/20 10/15-10/20 CNN/SSRS B/C LV 843 Trump
43
Biden
53
+10% +8.8% 0.72
10/21/20 10/16-10/19 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,241 Trump
43
Biden
51
+8% +7.8% 0.83
10/21/20 10/15-10/19 Suffolk University A LV 500 Trump
42.4
Biden
48.6
+6.2% +5.6% 0.87
10/20/20 10/16-10/19 Change Research C- LV 574 Trump
47
Biden
49
+2% +0.8% 0.59
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,803 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,803 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/20/20 10/18-10/19 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 800 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +4.6% 0.74
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,532 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,532 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/19/20 10/13-10/19 Ipsos B- LV 653 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +3.6% 0.23
10/19/20 10/13-10/19 Ipsos B- LV 653 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +3.6% 0.23
10/19/20 10/13-10/15 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,041 Trump
46.4
Biden
47.5
+1.1% +2.1% 0.51
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,360 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,360 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,250 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,250 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,804 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,804 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/16/20 10/12-10/15 HarrisX C LV 992 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +6.4% 0.53
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,258 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,258 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
10/15/20 10/8-10/11 Civiqs B/C LV 600 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +7% 0.44
10/15/20 10/12-10/13 InsiderAdvantage B- LV 400 Trump
42.6
Biden
45.8
+3.2% +2% 0.56
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,946 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,946 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
10/14/20 10/7-10/12 RMG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
43
Biden
49
+6% +6% 0.45
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,613 Trump
47
Biden
52
+5% +0% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,613 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/13/20 10/10-10/12 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,034 Trump
45.1
Biden
47.4
+2.3% +3.3% 0.4
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,610 Trump
44
Biden
52
+8% +7.8% 0.4
10/12/20 10/6-10/11 Ipsos B- LV 622 Trump
45
Biden
51
+6% +5.6% 0.09
10/12/20 10/6-10/11 Ipsos B- LV 622 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +6.6% 0.09
10/12/20 10/5-10/9 Whitman Insight Strategies LV 517 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +5% -
10/11/20 9/30-10/8 Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll) C/D LV 1,140 Trump
44.5
Biden
49.6
+5.1% +4.3% 0.13
10/9/20 10/4-10/6 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 927 Trump
42
Biden
49
+7% +7% -
10/7/20 10/1-10/5 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,211 Trump
41
Biden
54
+13% +12.8% 0.38
10/6/20 10/4-10/5 Emerson College A- LV 688 Trump
47.4
Biden
50.8
+3.4% +3% 0.47
10/6/20 10/2-10/4 Change Research C- LV 468 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +2.8% 0.15
10/6/20 9/30-10/4 Monmouth University A+ LV 500 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +6.6% 0.12
10/6/20 9/30-10/4 Monmouth University A+ LV 500 Trump
43
Biden
54
+11% +9.6% 0.12
10/6/20 9/30-10/4 Monmouth University A+ RV 500 Trump
42
Biden
54
+12% +10.6% -
10/5/20 9/29-10/5 Ipsos B- LV 605 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +4.6% 0.28
10/4/20 9/30-10/2 YouGov B LV 1,187 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +6.6% 0.31
10/3/20 9/30-10/2 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 706 Trump
42
Biden
49
+7% +7.4% 0.48
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,184 Trump
46
Biden
51.3
+5.3% +0.3% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,184 Trump
47.7
Biden
50.1
+2.4% +2.6% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,208 Trump
47
Biden
50.5
+3.5% +1.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,208 Trump
47.8
Biden
50.3
+2.5% +2.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,531 Trump
44.9
Biden
52.3
+7.4% +2.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,531 Trump
45
Biden
52.8
+7.8% +2.8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,613 Trump
45
Biden
52.2
+7.1% +2.1% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,613 Trump
46.4
Biden
51.7
+5.3% +0.3% -
10/2/20 9/23-9/25 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,015 Trump
44
Biden
50
+6% +6% -
10/1/20 8/26-9/1 ALG Research B/C LV 500 Trump
44
Biden
50
+6% +4.4% -
9/29/20 9/21-9/26 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ RV 702 Trump
44
Biden
54
+10% +9.4% -
9/29/20 9/21-9/26 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ LV 568 Trump
45
Biden
54
+9% +8.4% 0.3
9/28/20 9/25-9/27 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 711 Trump
40
Biden
49
+9% +9.4% 0.36
9/27/20 9/24-9/26 TIPP A/B LV 774 Trump
44.7
Biden
49.7
+5% +5.8% 0.23
9/27/20 9/24-9/26 TIPP A/B RV 909 Trump
43.6
Biden
48.9
+5.3% +6.1% -
9/25/20 9/17-9/19 Hart Research Associates B/C LV 400 Trump
42
Biden
53
+11% +9.6% -
9/25/20 9/18-9/21 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,006 Trump
45.9
Biden
48.1
+2.2% +3.2% -
9/24/20 9/20-9/23 Fox News A- RV 910 Trump
43
Biden
51
+8% +6.6% -
9/24/20 9/20-9/23 Fox News A- LV 856 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +5.6% 0.21
9/24/20 9/10-9/21 YouGov B LV 642 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +3.6% -
9/24/20 9/10-9/21 YouGov B RV 723 Trump
44
Biden
49
+5% +4.6% -
9/23/20 9/14-9/20 Franklin & Marshall College B/C LV 480 Trump
42
Biden
48
+6% +5.6% -
9/23/20 9/14-9/20 Franklin & Marshall College B/C RV 625 Trump
40
Biden
49
+9% +8.6% -
9/23/20 9/15-9/17 CPEC C/D LV 820 Trump
45.4
Biden
50.3
+4.9% +4.9% -
9/23/20 9/8-9/22 Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll) C/D LV 1,012 Trump
44.6
Biden
47.3
+2.7% +1.9% -
9/23/20 9/18-9/20 Change Research C- LV 579 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +2.8% -
9/21/20 9/11-9/16 Ipsos B- LV 611 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +2.6% -
9/20/20 9/15-9/17 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,006 Trump
44.9
Biden
47.3
+2.4% +3.4% -
9/19/20 9/8-9/11 Climate Nexus RV 659 Trump
43
Biden
48
+5% +5% -
9/18/20 9/12-9/14 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,036 Trump
44
Biden
49
+5% +5% -
9/18/20 9/11-9/15 Civiqs B/C RV 549 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +7% -
9/10/20 9/3-9/6 TargetSmart B/C LV 835 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +6.4% -
9/10/20 8/28-9/8 Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group LV 1,600 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +3% -
9/9/20 8/29-9/7 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,227 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +4.8% -
9/9/20 9/4-9/6 Change Research C- LV 829 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +2.8% -
9/9/20 8/31-9/7 Marist College A+ LV 771 Trump
44
Biden
53
+9% +9.4% 0.09
9/9/20 8/31-9/7 Marist College A+ RV 1,039 Trump
44
Biden
52
+8% +8.4% -
9/8/20 8/30-9/3 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,053 Trump
43
Biden
48
+5% +5% -
9/8/20 8/26-9/4 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. C LV 498 Trump
42
Biden
44
+2% +1% -
9/4/20 8/26-8/31 Hodas & Associates LV 600 Trump
45
Biden
51.1
+6.2% +6.2% -
9/3/20 8/28-9/1 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,107 Trump
44
Biden
52
+8% +7.8% -
9/3/20 8/25-8/27 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 1,000 Trump
48.2
Biden
47.8
+0.3% +1.3% -
9/2/20 8/28-8/31 Monmouth University A+ LV 400 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +0.4% -
9/2/20 8/28-8/31 Monmouth University A+ LV 400 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +1.6% -
9/2/20 8/28-8/31 Monmouth University A+ RV 400 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +2.6% -
9/1/20 8/21-8/30 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,158 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +3.8% -
9/1/20 8/7-8/16 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,777 Trump
44
Biden
50
+6% +5.8% -
8/31/20 8/13-8/19 Global Strategy Group B/C RV 801 Trump
43
Biden
53
+10% +8.2% -
8/31/20 8/13-8/19 Global Strategy Group B/C RV 801 Trump
42
Biden
50
+8% +6.2% -
8/31/20 8/20-8/24 GQR Research B LV 500 Trump
43
Biden
52
+9% +6.8% -
8/27/20 8/17-8/23 Franklin & Marshall College B/C RV 681 Trump
42
Biden
49
+7% +6.6% -
8/26/20 8/21-8/23 Change Research C- LV 984 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +1.8% -
8/21/20 8/16-8/17 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,006 Trump
41
Biden
48
+7% +7% -
8/21/20 8/13-8/17 Civiqs B/C RV 617 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +7% -
8/20/20 8/11-8/17 Muhlenberg College A+ LV 416 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +4.2% -
8/18/20 8/2-8/4 OnMessage Inc. B/C LV 400 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +5.4% -
8/12/20 8/7-8/9 Change Research C- LV 456 Trump
44
Biden
48
+4% +2.8% -
8/11/20 8/8-8/10 Emerson College A- LV 843 Trump
46.7
Biden
53.3
+6.6% +6.2% -
8/10/20 7/27-8/6 YouGov B RV 742 Trump
41
Biden
50
+9% +8.6% -
8/9/20 8/4-8/7 YouGov B LV 1,211 Trump
43
Biden
49
+6% +5.6% -
8/5/20 7/21-7/23 Zogby Analytics C+ LV 809 Trump
43
Biden
44
+1% +1.6% -
8/5/20 7/17-7/22 Hodas & Associates LV 600 Trump
44.7
Biden
50.8
+6.2% +6.2% -
7/30/20 7/19-7/21 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,016 Trump
41
Biden
48
+7% +7% -
7/30/20 7/20-7/26 Franklin & Marshall College B/C RV 667 Trump
41
Biden
50
+9% +8.6% -
7/29/20 7/24-7/26 Change Research C- LV 382 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +0.8% -
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,120 Trump
44
Biden
48
+4% +3.8% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,092 Trump
42
Biden
50
+8% +7.8% -
7/25/20 7/22-7/24 Gravis Marketing C LV 1,006 Trump
45
Biden
48
+3% +2% -
7/23/20 7/18-7/20 Fox News A- RV 793 Trump
39
Biden
50
+11% +9.6% -
7/22/20 7/15-7/20 Spry Strategies B/C LV 700 Trump
47.8
Biden
47
+0.7% +0.3% -
7/21/20 7/15-7/16 Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 750 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +6.6% -
7/15/20 7/9-7/13 Monmouth University A+ LV 401 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +5.6% -
7/15/20 7/9-7/13 Monmouth University A+ LV 401 Trump
42
Biden
52
+10% +8.6% -
7/15/20 7/9-7/13 Monmouth University A+ RV 401 Trump
40
Biden
53
+13% +11.6% -
7/15/20 7/10-7/12 Change Research C- LV 743 Trump
42
Biden
50
+8% +6.8% -
7/6/20 6/29-7/2 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,062 Trump
42.7
Biden
48
+5.3% +6.3% -
7/1/20 6/26-6/28 Change Research C- LV 760 Trump
44
Biden
50
+6% +4.8% -
6/29/20 6/15-6/23 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. C LV 715 Trump
41
Biden
46
+5% +4% -
6/25/20 6/14-6/16 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,125 Trump
39
Biden
49
+10% +10% -
6/25/20 6/8-6/11 Hodas & Associates LV 600 Trump
42.2
Biden
53.8
+11.7% +11.7% -
6/25/20 6/8-6/16 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ RV 651 Trump
40
Biden
50
+10% +10.4% -
6/17/20 6/12-6/14 Change Research C- LV 491 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +1.8% -
6/3/20 5/29-5/31 Change Research C- LV 579 Trump
50
Biden
46
+4% +5.2% -
5/21/20 5/10-5/14 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 963 Trump
39
Biden
48
+9% +9% -
5/21/20 5/9-5/13 Hodas & Associates LV 600 Trump
50.5
Biden
46
+4.5% +4.5% -
5/1/20 4/21-4/26 Harper Polling B/C LV 644 Trump
43
Biden
49
+6% +5.8% -
4/24/20 4/16-4/18 Hodas & Associates LV 600 Trump
47.5
Biden
47.5
+0% +0% -
4/23/20 4/20-4/21 Public Policy Polling B V 1,251 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +6.6% -
4/23/20 4/15-4/20 Ipsos B- A 654 Trump
37
Biden
42
+5% +4.6% -
4/23/20 4/14-4/20 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. C LV 693 Trump
42
Biden
48
+6% +5% -
4/22/20 4/15-4/20 Ipsos B- RV 578 Trump
40
Biden
46
+6% +5.6% -
4/22/20 4/18-4/21 Fox News A- RV 803 Trump
42
Biden
50
+8% +6.6% -
3/27/20 3/19-3/21 Hodas & Associates LV 600 Trump
47.2
Biden
46.7
+0.5% +0.5% -
3/26/20 3/17-3/25 Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll) C/D RV 973 Trump
46.5
Biden
44.5
+2% +2.8% -
3/9/20 3/6-3/8 YouGov B RV 725 Trump
40
Biden
46
+6% +5.6% -
3/9/20 3/5-3/7 Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus B/C LV 533 Trump
45.4
Biden
43.8
+1.7% +0.3% -
3/7/20 2/6-2/18 Expedition Strategies RV 500 Trump
42
Biden
47
+5% +5% -
2/27/20 2/12-2/20 Muhlenberg College A+ RV 424 Trump
47
Biden
47
+0% +0.2% -
2/23/20 2/11-2/20 YouGov B RV 1,171 Trump
45
Biden
46
+1% +0.6% -
2/20/20 2/12-2/18 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 849 Trump
42
Biden
50
+8% +7.8% -
12/9/19 12/3-12/5 Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus B/C LV 598 Trump
45.5
Biden
41.2
+4.2% +2.8% -
11/14/19 11/4-11/9 Muhlenberg College A+ RV 410 Trump
43
Biden
52
+9% +9.2% -
11/4/19 10/13-10/25 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 661 Trump
44.9
Biden
46.1
+1.2% +1.6% -
11/4/19 10/13-10/25 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ RV 661 Trump
44
Biden
46.7
+2.7% +3.1% -
9/12/19 9/7-9/9 Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus B/C LV 527 Trump
41
Biden
45
+4% +5.4% -
6/18/19 6/11-6/13 Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus B/C LV 565 Trump
42
Biden
43
+1% +2.4% -
5/15/19 5/9-5/14 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 978 Trump
42
Biden
53
+11% +10.8% -
5/11/19 4/27-4/30 WPA Intelligence B/C LV 200 Trump
45
Biden
46
+1% +1.8% -
3/28/19 3/26-3/28 Emerson College A- RV 808 Trump
45.2
Biden
54.8
+9.6% +9.2% -
3/26/19 3/19-3/21 Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus B/C LV 632 Trump
43
Biden
50
+7% +8.4% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 48.2 47.5 +0.7%
2012 Romney v Obama 46.6 52 +5.4%
2008 McCain v Obama 44.2 54.5 +10.3%
2004 Bush v Kerry 48.4 50.9 +2.5%
2000 Bush v Gore 46.4 50.6 +4.2%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 9:34 AM EDT
9/28
Pennsylvania changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
6/25
Pennsylvania polls jumped 2.5% toward Biden (was D+3.8%, now D+6.3%)
Pennsylvania changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden
6/3
Pennsylvania polls jumped 1.9% toward Trump (was D+5.2%, now D+3.3%)