Pennsylvania

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/6 4:52 PM EDT 96% Reporting
Biden
Trump
Biden
Vote: 49.5% +0.2%
Polls: 50.2% +4.6%
Trump
Vote: 49.3%
Polls: 45.6%
85.8% Chance of Winning
14.2%  

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Pennsylvania changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





Pennsylvania Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Likely Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
89.3%
Polls: 50.3% +4.8%
Trump
10.7%
Polls: 45.5%
89.3%
10.7%



Swing

 
+5.5%
From 2016 Results
+1.8%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.823 Testing Range: +/- 4.22%




Tipping Point



51.8%
of the time





Polls

 
50.3%
Biden (+4.8%)
45.5%
Trump
 



Updates

Last Updated: 11/2 11:45 PM EDT
9/28
Pennsylvania changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
6/25
Pennsylvania polls jumped 2.5% toward Biden (was D+3.8%, now D+6.3%)
Pennsylvania changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden
6/3
Pennsylvania polls jumped 1.9% toward Trump (was D+5.2%, now D+3.3%)