Pennsylvania

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/21 2:56 PM EST
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Pennsylvania changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





Pennsylvania Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Likely Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
89.3%
Polls: 50.3% +4.8%
Trump
10.7%
Polls: 45.5%
89.3%
10.7%



Swing

 
+5.5%
From 2016 Results
+1.8%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.823 Testing Range: +/- 4.22%




Tipping Point



51.8%
of the time





Polls

 
50.3%
Biden (+4.8%)
45.5%
Trump
 



Updates

Last Updated: 11/2 11:45 PM EST
9/28
Pennsylvania changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
6/25
Pennsylvania polls jumped 2.5% toward Biden (was D+3.8%, now D+6.3%)
Pennsylvania changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden
6/3
Pennsylvania polls jumped 1.9% toward Trump (was D+5.2%, now D+3.3%)