Pennsylvania

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 6/13 1:38 PM EDT
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Pennsylvania changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





Pennsylvania Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Toss Up

Win Probability
(with same polling error as 2016)

This version of the model assumes the same polling error (polls on election day vs actual result) as 2016.
In Pennsylvania the polls are shifted 3.7% more Republican.

Biden
Trump
Biden
62.8%
Polls: 48.4% +1.4%
Trump
37.2%
Polls: 47%
62.8%
37.2%



Swing

 
+2.1%
From 2016 Results
+2.1%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.12 Testing Range: +/- 4.91%




Tipping Point



34.3%
of the time





Polls

 
48.4%
Biden (+1.4%)
47%
Trump
 



Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 1:11 AM EDT
10/25
Pennsylvania changed from Lean Biden to Toss Up
10/23
Pennsylvania changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden
10/19
Pennsylvania changed from Lean Biden to Toss Up
10/7
Pennsylvania changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden
6/25
Pennsylvania polls jumped 2.5% toward Biden (was D+0.1%, now D+2.6%)
Pennsylvania projected winner changed to Biden (54.4% chance of winning)