Pennsylvania

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 6/13 1:38 PM EDT
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Pennsylvania changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





Pennsylvania Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Likely Biden

Win Probability
(if election today)

Biden
Trump
Biden
If Election Today
90.4%
Polls: 50.2% +5.1%
Trump
If Election Today
9.6%
Polls: 45.1%
90.4%
9.6%



Swing

 
+5.8%
From 2016 Results
+2.1%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.834 Testing Range: +/- 4.27%




Tipping Point



48%
of the time





Polls

 
50.2%
Biden (+5.1%)
45.1%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/24-10/25 Wick LV 1,000 Trump
49
Biden
46.9
+2.1% +2.1% 0.41
11/2/20 10/27-11/2 Swayable D- LV 1,107 Trump
48.4
Biden
49.9
+1.5% +1.5% 0.52
11/2/20 10/9-10/10 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,145 Trump
44
Biden
49
+5% +5% -
11/2/20 10/10-10/13 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,289 Trump
43
Biden
51
+8% +8% -
11/2/20 10/26-10/29 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 2,125 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +5% 0.62
11/2/20 10/29-11/1 Change Research C- LV 699 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +2.8% 0.87
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 Data for Progress B- LV 1,417 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +7% 1.08
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,358 Trump
47
Biden
51
+4% +1% -
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,358 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
11/2/20 10/29-11/1 Marist College A+ RV 1,020 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +4.4% -
11/2/20 10/29-11/1 Marist College A+ LV 772 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +5.4% 1.23
11/2/20 11/1-11/2 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. C LV 499 Trump
49.2
Biden
48.4
+0.8% +1.8% 0.99
11/2/20 10/30-10/31 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,062 Trump
47.8
Biden
45.9
+1.9% +0.9% 0.93
11/2/20 10/31-11/1 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 800 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +4.6% 1.06
11/2/20 10/30-11/1 AYTM LV 340 Trump
49
Biden
51
+2% +2% 0.58
11/2/20 10/30-10/31 Frederick Polls B/C LV 879 Trump
48
Biden
52
+4% +4% 1.04
11/2/20 10/31-11/1 Research Co. B- LV 450 Trump
44
Biden
50
+6% +6.6% 1.03
11/2/20 10/28-11/1 Monmouth University A+ LV 502 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +3.6% 0.37
11/2/20 10/28-11/1 Monmouth University A+ LV 502 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +5.6% 0.37
11/2/20 10/28-11/1 Monmouth University A+ RV 502 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +3.6% -
11/2/20 10/22-10/31 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,686 Trump
43.2
Biden
51.9
+8.7% +8.5% 0.99
11/1/20 10/25-10/30 Targoz Market Research C/D LV 998 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +12.4% 0.72
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,750 Trump
47
Biden
51
+4% +1% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,750 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
11/1/20 9/29-10/27 CCES / YouGov B LV 2,703 Trump
44
Biden
52
+8% +7.6% 0.39
11/1/20 10/30-10/31 InsiderAdvantage B- LV 500 Trump
48.7
Biden
47.4
+1.3% +2.5% 0.97
11/1/20 10/29-10/30 Emerson College A- LV 823 Trump
46.6
Biden
51.5
+4.9% +4.5% 1.13
11/1/20 10/27-11/1 Ipsos B- LV 673 Trump
45
Biden
51
+6% +5.6% 0.3
11/1/20 10/27-11/1 Ipsos B- LV 673 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +5.6% 0.3
11/1/20 10/26-10/31 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 1,862 Trump
43
Biden
49
+6% +6.4% 1.27
11/1/20 10/24-10/29 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ LV 810 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +6.4% 1.06
11/1/20 10/24-10/29 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ RV 908 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +3.4% -
10/31/20 10/29-10/30 AtlasIntel B/C LV 672 Trump
49.6
Biden
48.5
+1.1% +1.1% 0.93
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,663 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,663 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
10/31/20 10/23-10/28 Muhlenberg College A+ LV 419 Trump
44
Biden
49
+5% +5.2% 0.95
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,786 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,786 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
10/30/20 10/24-10/25 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,076 Trump
48.4
Biden
47.6
+0.8% +0.2% 0.63
10/30/20 10/28-10/29 Public Policy Polling B V 1,012 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +6.6% 1
10/30/20 10/23-10/26 Swayable D- LV 491 Trump
46.1
Biden
51.9
+5.8% +5.8% 0.2
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 10,599 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 10,599 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/29/20 10/26-10/29 Harris Poll C LV 901 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +6.4% 0.81
10/29/20 10/23-10/27 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,324 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +6.8% 0.86
10/29/20 10/17-10/20 Citizen Data LV 1,000 Trump
38.7
Biden
44
+5.3% +5.3% 0.13
10/28/20 10/19-10/25 Franklin & Marshall College B/C LV 558 Trump
44
Biden
50
+6% +5.6% 0.59
10/28/20 10/25-10/27 RMG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
45
Biden
51
+6% +6% 0.78
10/28/20 10/17-10/25 Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research RV 723 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +5% 0.21
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 10,250 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 10,250 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/27/20 10/23-10/26 Civiqs B/C LV 1,145 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +7% 0.77
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,986 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,986 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
10/26/20 10/20-10/26 Ipsos B- LV 655 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +6.6% 0.11
10/26/20 10/20-10/26 Ipsos B- LV 655 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +4.6% 0.11
10/26/20 10/25-10/25 InsiderAdvantage B- LV 400 Trump
48.4
Biden
45.5
+2.9% +4.1% 0.71
10/26/20 10/13-10/21 YouGov B RV 736 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +6.6% -
10/26/20 10/13-10/21 YouGov B LV 669 Trump
44
Biden
52
+8% +7.6% 0.47
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,903 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,903 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,777 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,777 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/24/20 10/23-10/23 Gravis Marketing C LV 602 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +6% 0.54
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,615 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,615 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/23/20 10/13-10/20 Muhlenberg College A+ LV 416 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +7.2% 0.64
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,301 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,301 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
10/22/20 10/21-10/22 Public Policy Polling B V 890 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +4.6% 0.68
10/22/20 2/27-3/3 Civiqs B/C A 2,462 Trump
48
Biden
46
+2% +2% -
10/22/20 3/14-3/18 Civiqs B/C A 1,589 Trump
48
Biden
46
+2% +2% -
10/22/20 4/4-4/8 Civiqs B/C A 1,912 Trump
47
Biden
47
0% 0% -
10/22/20 5/30-6/2 Civiqs B/C A 2,045 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +3% -
10/22/20 6/6-6/11 Civiqs B/C A 1,221 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +3% -
10/22/20 10/17-10/21 Civiqs B/C A 1,577 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +6% 0.48
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,563 Trump
43
Biden
52
+9% +8.8% 0.42
10/21/20 10/17-10/20 Fox News A- RV 1,106 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +3.6% -
10/21/20 10/17-10/20 Fox News A- LV 1,045 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +3.6% 0.67
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 9,131 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 9,131 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
10/21/20 10/15-10/20 CNN/SSRS B/C RV 925 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +3.8% -
10/21/20 10/15-10/20 CNN/SSRS B/C LV 843 Trump
43
Biden
53
+10% +8.8% 0.44
10/21/20 10/16-10/19 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,241 Trump
43
Biden
51
+8% +7.8% 0.56
10/21/20 10/15-10/19 Suffolk University A LV 500 Trump
42.4
Biden
48.6
+6.2% +5.6% 0.59
10/20/20 10/16-10/19 Change Research C- LV 574 Trump
47
Biden
49
+2% +0.8% 0.31
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,803 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,803 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/20/20 10/18-10/19 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 800 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +4.6% 0.46
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,532 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,532 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/19/20 10/13-10/19 Ipsos B- LV 653 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +3.6% -
10/19/20 10/13-10/19 Ipsos B- LV 653 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +3.6% -
10/19/20 10/13-10/15 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,041 Trump
46.4
Biden
47.5
+1.1% +2.1% 0.17
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,360 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,360 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,250 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,250 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,804 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,804 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/16/20 10/12-10/15 Harris Poll C LV 992 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +6.4% 0.25
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,258 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,258 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
10/15/20 10/8-10/11 Civiqs B/C LV 600 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +7% 0.18
10/15/20 10/12-10/13 InsiderAdvantage B- LV 400 Trump
42.6
Biden
45.8
+3.2% +2% 0.29
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,946 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,946 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
10/14/20 10/7-10/12 RMG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
43
Biden
49
+6% +6% 0.19
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,613 Trump
47
Biden
52
+5% 0% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,613 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/13/20 10/10-10/12 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,034 Trump
45.1
Biden
47.4
+2.3% +3.3% 0.07
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,610 Trump
44
Biden
52
+8% +7.8% 0.14
10/12/20 10/6-10/11 Ipsos B- LV 622 Trump
45
Biden
51
+6% +5.6% -
10/12/20 10/6-10/11 Ipsos B- LV 622 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +6.6% -
10/12/20 10/5-10/9 Whitman Insight Strategies LV 517 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +5% -
10/11/20 9/30-10/8 Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll) C/D LV 1,140 Trump
44.5
Biden
49.6
+5.1% +4.3% -
10/9/20 10/4-10/6 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 927 Trump
42
Biden
49
+7% +7% -
10/7/20 10/1-10/5 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,211 Trump
41
Biden
54
+13% +12.8% 0.12
10/6/20 10/4-10/5 Emerson College A- LV 688 Trump
47.4
Biden
50.8
+3.4% +3% 0.23
10/6/20 10/2-10/4 Change Research C- LV 468 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +2.8% -
10/6/20 9/30-10/4 Monmouth University A+ LV 500 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +6.6% -
10/6/20 9/30-10/4 Monmouth University A+ LV 500 Trump
43
Biden
54
+11% +9.6% -
10/6/20 9/30-10/4 Monmouth University A+ RV 500 Trump
42
Biden
54
+12% +10.6% -
10/5/20 9/29-10/5 Ipsos B- LV 605 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +4.6% -
10/4/20 9/30-10/2 YouGov B LV 1,187 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +6.6% -
10/3/20 9/30-10/2 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 706 Trump
42
Biden
49
+7% +7.4% 0.24
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,184 Trump
46
Biden
51.3
+5.3% +0.3% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,184 Trump
47.7
Biden
50.1
+2.4% +2.6% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,208 Trump
47
Biden
50.5
+3.5% +1.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,208 Trump
47.8
Biden
50.3
+2.5% +2.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,531 Trump
44.9
Biden
52.3
+7.4% +2.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,531 Trump
45
Biden
52.8
+7.8% +2.8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,613 Trump
45
Biden
52.2
+7.1% +2.1% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,613 Trump
46.4
Biden
51.7
+5.3% +0.3% -
10/2/20 9/23-9/25 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,015 Trump
44
Biden
50
+6% +6% -
10/1/20 8/26-9/1 ALG Research B/C LV 500 Trump
44
Biden
50
+6% +4.4% -
9/29/20 9/21-9/26 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ RV 702 Trump
44
Biden
54
+10% +9.4% -
9/29/20 9/21-9/26 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ LV 568 Trump
45
Biden
54
+9% +8.4% 0.09
9/28/20 9/25-9/27 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 711 Trump
40
Biden
49
+9% +9.4% 0.14
9/27/20 9/24-9/26 TIPP A/B LV 774 Trump
44.7
Biden
49.7
+5% +5.8% -
9/27/20 9/24-9/26 TIPP A/B RV 909 Trump
43.6
Biden
48.9
+5.3% +6.1% -
9/25/20 9/17-9/19 Hart Research Associates B/C LV 400 Trump
42
Biden
53
+11% +9.6% -
9/25/20 9/18-9/21 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,006 Trump
45.9
Biden
48.1
+2.2% +3.2% -
9/24/20 9/20-9/23 Fox News A- RV 910 Trump
43
Biden
51
+8% +6.6% -
9/24/20 9/20-9/23 Fox News A- LV 856 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +5.6% -
9/24/20 9/10-9/21 YouGov B LV 642 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +3.6% -
9/24/20 9/10-9/21 YouGov B RV 723 Trump
44
Biden
49
+5% +4.6% -
9/23/20 9/14-9/20 Franklin & Marshall College B/C LV 480 Trump
42
Biden
48
+6% +5.6% -
9/23/20 9/14-9/20 Franklin & Marshall College B/C RV 625 Trump
40
Biden
49
+9% +8.6% -
9/23/20 9/15-9/17 CPEC C/D LV 820 Trump
45.4
Biden
50.3
+4.9% +4.9% -
9/23/20 9/8-9/22 Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll) C/D LV 1,012 Trump
44.6
Biden
47.3
+2.7% +1.9% -
9/23/20 9/18-9/20 Change Research C- LV 579 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +2.8% -
9/21/20 9/11-9/16 Ipsos B- LV 611 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +2.6% -
9/20/20 9/15-9/17 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,006 Trump
44.9
Biden
47.3
+2.4% +3.4% -
9/19/20 9/8-9/11 Climate Nexus RV 659 Trump
43
Biden
48
+5% +5% -
9/18/20 9/12-9/14 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,036 Trump
44
Biden
49
+5% +5% -
9/18/20 9/11-9/15 Civiqs B/C RV 549 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +7% -
9/10/20 9/3-9/6 TargetSmart B/C LV 835 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +6.4% -
9/10/20 8/28-9/8 Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group LV 1,600 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +3% -
9/9/20 8/29-9/7 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,227 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +4.8% -
9/9/20 9/4-9/6 Change Research C- LV 829 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +2.8% -
9/9/20 8/31-9/7 Marist College A+ LV 771 Trump
44
Biden
53
+9% +9.4% -
9/9/20 8/31-9/7 Marist College A+ RV 1,039 Trump
44
Biden
52
+8% +8.4% -
9/8/20 8/30-9/3 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,053 Trump
43
Biden
48
+5% +5% -
9/8/20 8/26-9/4 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. C LV 498 Trump
42
Biden
44
+2% +1% -
9/4/20 8/26-8/31 Hodas & Associates LV 600 Trump
45
Biden
51.1
+6.2% +6.2% -
9/3/20 8/28-9/1 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,107 Trump
44
Biden
52
+8% +7.8% -
9/3/20 8/25-8/27 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 1,000 Trump
48.2
Biden
47.8
+0.3% +1.3% -
9/2/20 8/28-8/31 Monmouth University A+ LV 400 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +0.4% -
9/2/20 8/28-8/31 Monmouth University A+ LV 400 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +1.6% -
9/2/20 8/28-8/31 Monmouth University A+ RV 400 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +2.6% -
9/1/20 8/21-8/30 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,158 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +3.8% -
9/1/20 8/7-8/16 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,777 Trump
44
Biden
50
+6% +5.8% -
8/31/20 8/13-8/19 Global Strategy Group B/C RV 801 Trump
43
Biden
53
+10% +8.2% -
8/31/20 8/13-8/19 Global Strategy Group B/C RV 801 Trump
42
Biden
50
+8% +6.2% -
8/31/20 8/20-8/24 GQR Research B LV 500 Trump
43
Biden
52
+9% +6.8% -
8/27/20 8/17-8/23 Franklin & Marshall College B/C RV 681 Trump
42
Biden
49
+7% +6.6% -
8/26/20 8/21-8/23 Change Research C- LV 984 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +1.8% -
8/21/20 8/16-8/17 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,006 Trump
41
Biden
48
+7% +7% -
8/21/20 8/13-8/17 Civiqs B/C RV 617 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +7% -
8/20/20 8/11-8/17 Muhlenberg College A+ LV 416 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +4.2% -
8/18/20 8/2-8/4 OnMessage Inc. B/C LV 400 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +5.4% -
8/12/20 8/7-8/9 Change Research C- LV 456 Trump
44
Biden
48
+4% +2.8% -
8/11/20 8/8-8/10 Emerson College A- LV 843 Trump
46.7
Biden
53.3
+6.6% +6.2% -
8/10/20 7/27-8/6 YouGov B RV 742 Trump
41
Biden
50
+9% +8.6% -
8/9/20 8/4-8/7 YouGov B LV 1,211 Trump
43
Biden
49
+6% +5.6% -
8/5/20 7/21-7/23 Zogby Analytics C+ LV 809 Trump
43
Biden
44
+1% +1.6% -
8/5/20 7/17-7/22 Hodas & Associates LV 600 Trump
44.7
Biden
50.8
+6.2% +6.2% -
7/30/20 7/19-7/21 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,016 Trump
41
Biden
48
+7% +7% -
7/30/20 7/20-7/26 Franklin & Marshall College B/C RV 667 Trump
41
Biden
50
+9% +8.6% -
7/29/20 7/24-7/26 Change Research C- LV 382 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +0.8% -
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,120 Trump
44
Biden
48
+4% +3.8% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 2,092 Trump
42
Biden
50
+8% +7.8% -
7/25/20 7/22-7/24 Gravis Marketing C LV 1,006 Trump
45
Biden
48
+3% +2% -
7/23/20 7/18-7/20 Fox News A- RV 793 Trump
39
Biden
50
+11% +9.6% -
7/22/20 7/15-7/20 Spry Strategies B/C LV 700 Trump
47.8
Biden
47
+0.7% +0.3% -
7/21/20 7/15-7/16 Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 750 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +6.6% -
7/15/20 7/9-7/13 Monmouth University A+ LV 401 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +5.6% -
7/15/20 7/9-7/13 Monmouth University A+ LV 401 Trump
42
Biden
52
+10% +8.6% -
7/15/20 7/9-7/13 Monmouth University A+ RV 401 Trump
40
Biden
53
+13% +11.6% -
7/15/20 7/10-7/12 Change Research C- LV 743 Trump
42
Biden
50
+8% +6.8% -
7/6/20 6/29-7/2 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,062 Trump
42.7
Biden
48
+5.3% +6.3% -
7/1/20 6/26-6/28 Change Research C- LV 760 Trump
44
Biden
50
+6% +4.8% -
6/29/20 6/15-6/23 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. C LV 715 Trump
41
Biden
46
+5% +4% -
6/25/20 6/14-6/16 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,125 Trump
39
Biden
49
+10% +10% -
6/25/20 6/8-6/11 Hodas & Associates LV 600 Trump
42.2
Biden
53.8
+11.7% +11.7% -
6/25/20 6/8-6/16 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ RV 651 Trump
40
Biden
50
+10% +10.4% -
6/17/20 6/12-6/14 Change Research C- LV 491 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +1.8% -
6/3/20 5/29-5/31 Change Research C- LV 579 Trump
50
Biden
46
+4% +5.2% -
5/21/20 5/10-5/14 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 963 Trump
39
Biden
48
+9% +9% -
5/21/20 5/9-5/13 Hodas & Associates LV 600 Trump
50.5
Biden
46
+4.5% +4.5% -
5/1/20 4/21-4/26 Harper Polling B/C LV 644 Trump
43
Biden
49
+6% +5.8% -
4/24/20 4/16-4/18 Hodas & Associates LV 600 Trump
47.5
Biden
47.5
0% 0% -
4/23/20 4/20-4/21 Public Policy Polling B V 1,251 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +6.6% -
4/23/20 4/15-4/20 Ipsos B- A 654 Trump
37
Biden
42
+5% +4.6% -
4/23/20 4/14-4/20 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. C LV 693 Trump
42
Biden
48
+6% +5% -
4/22/20 4/15-4/20 Ipsos B- RV 578 Trump
40
Biden
46
+6% +5.6% -
4/22/20 4/18-4/21 Fox News A- RV 803 Trump
42
Biden
50
+8% +6.6% -
3/27/20 3/19-3/21 Hodas & Associates LV 600 Trump
47.2
Biden
46.7
+0.5% +0.5% -
3/26/20 3/17-3/25 Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll) C/D RV 973 Trump
46.5
Biden
44.5
+2% +2.8% -
3/9/20 3/6-3/8 YouGov B RV 725 Trump
40
Biden
46
+6% +5.6% -
3/9/20 3/5-3/7 Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus B/C LV 533 Trump
45.4
Biden
43.8
+1.7% +0.3% -
3/7/20 2/6-2/18 Expedition Strategies RV 500 Trump
42
Biden
47
+5% +5% -
2/27/20 2/12-2/20 Muhlenberg College A+ RV 424 Trump
47
Biden
47
0% +0.2% -
2/23/20 2/11-2/20 YouGov B RV 1,171 Trump
45
Biden
46
+1% +0.6% -
2/20/20 2/12-2/18 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 849 Trump
42
Biden
50
+8% +7.8% -
12/9/19 12/3-12/5 Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus B/C LV 598 Trump
45.5
Biden
41.2
+4.2% +2.8% -
11/14/19 11/4-11/9 Muhlenberg College A+ RV 410 Trump
43
Biden
52
+9% +9.2% -
11/4/19 10/13-10/25 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 661 Trump
44.9
Biden
46.1
+1.2% +1.6% -
11/4/19 10/13-10/25 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ RV 661 Trump
44
Biden
46.7
+2.7% +3.1% -
9/12/19 9/7-9/9 Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus B/C LV 527 Trump
41
Biden
45
+4% +5.4% -
6/18/19 6/11-6/13 Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus B/C LV 565 Trump
42
Biden
43
+1% +2.4% -
5/15/19 5/9-5/14 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 978 Trump
42
Biden
53
+11% +10.8% -
5/11/19 4/27-4/30 WPA Intelligence B/C LV 200 Trump
45
Biden
46
+1% +1.8% -
3/28/19 3/26-3/28 Emerson College A- RV 808 Trump
45.2
Biden
54.8
+9.6% +9.2% -
3/26/19 3/19-3/21 Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus B/C LV 632 Trump
43
Biden
50
+7% +8.4% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 48.2 47.5 +0.7%
2012 Romney v Obama 46.6 52 +5.4%
2008 McCain v Obama 44.2 54.5 +10.3%
2004 Bush v Kerry 48.4 50.9 +2.5%
2000 Bush v Gore 46.4 50.6 +4.2%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 12:18 AM EDT
7/15
Pennsylvania changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
7/11
Pennsylvania changed from Likely Biden to Lean Biden
7/5
Pennsylvania changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
7/4
Pennsylvania changed from Likely Biden to Lean Biden
7/1
Pennsylvania changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden