Rhode Island

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/21 2:56 PM EST
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Rhode Island changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





Rhode Island Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 60.8% +23.4%
Trump
0%
Polls: 37.4%
100%



Swing

 
+7.9%
From 2016 Results
+9.9%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
60.8%
Biden (+23.4%)
37.4%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 517 Trump
36
Biden
62
+26% +21% 0.23
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 517 Trump
36
Biden
62
+26% +21% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 551 Trump
36
Biden
62
+26% +21% 0.22
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 551 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 547 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% 0.2
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 547 Trump
34
Biden
63
+29% +24% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 569 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% 0.18
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 569 Trump
34
Biden
63
+29% +24% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 910 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% 0.07
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 910 Trump
31
Biden
67
+36% +31% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 863 Trump
31
Biden
67
+36% +31% 0.05
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 863 Trump
30
Biden
67
+37% +32% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 842 Trump
31
Biden
68
+37% +32% 0.01
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 842 Trump
30
Biden
68
+38% +33% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 835 Trump
31
Biden
68
+37% +32% 0.01
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 835 Trump
30
Biden
68
+38% +33% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 820 Trump
30
Biden
69
+39% +34% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 820 Trump
30
Biden
68
+38% +33% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 786 Trump
31
Biden
68
+37% +32% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 786 Trump
30
Biden
68
+38% +33% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 760 Trump
31
Biden
68
+37% +32% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 760 Trump
31
Biden
68
+37% +32% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 716 Trump
31
Biden
68
+37% +32% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 716 Trump
30
Biden
68
+38% +33% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 678 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 678 Trump
31
Biden
67
+36% +31% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 654 Trump
32
Biden
68
+36% +31% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 654 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 645 Trump
31
Biden
68
+37% +32% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 645 Trump
31
Biden
67
+36% +31% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 631 Trump
31
Biden
68
+37% +32% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 631 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 580 Trump
31
Biden
68
+37% +32% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 580 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 537 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 537 Trump
33
Biden
66
+33% +28% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 514 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 514 Trump
33
Biden
66
+33% +28% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 488 Trump
32
Biden
67
+35% +30% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 488 Trump
33
Biden
65
+32% +27% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 176 Trump
39.2
Biden
60
+20.8% +15.8% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 176 Trump
39.6
Biden
59.7
+20.1% +15.1% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 253 Trump
40.1
Biden
58.7
+18.5% +13.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 253 Trump
38.9
Biden
60.1
+21.2% +16.2% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 208 Trump
40.6
Biden
56.5
+15.9% +10.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 208 Trump
40.6
Biden
56.5
+16% +11% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 351 Trump
40.6
Biden
58.8
+18.3% +13.3% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 351 Trump
37.5
Biden
62.2
+24.7% +19.7% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 38.9 54.4 +15.5%
2012 Romney v Obama 35.2 62.7 +27.5%
2008 McCain v Obama 35.1 62.9 +27.8%
2004 Bush v Kerry 38.7 59.4 +20.8%
2000 Bush v Gore 31.9 61 +29.1%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 12:27 AM EST
11/1
Rhode Island polls jumped 2.1% toward Trump (was D+26.5%, now D+24.4%)
10/31
Rhode Island polls jumped 2% toward Trump (was D+28.5%, now D+26.5%)
10/30
Rhode Island polls jumped 2.9% toward Trump (was D+31.4%, now D+28.5%)
10/19
Rhode Island polls jumped 1.5% toward Biden (was D+28.9%, now D+30.4%)
10/17
Rhode Island polls jumped 1.6% toward Biden (was D+25.9%, now D+27.5%)