South Carolina

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
1%
Polls: 43.6%
Trump
99%
Polls: 50.7% +7.1%
1%
99%



Swing

 
+7.1%
From 2016 Results
+0.8%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.911 Testing Range: +/- 4.45%






Polls

 
43.6%
Biden
50.7%
Trump (+7.1%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,582 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% 0.09
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,582 Trump
51
Biden
45
+6% +11% -
10/27/20 10/22-10/27 Data for Progress B- LV 1,196 Trump
50
Biden
44
+6% +6% 1.08
10/26/20 10/26-10/26 Starboard Communications B/C LV 800 Trump
51.2
Biden
43.9
+7.3% +7.5% 1.1
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,403 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,403 Trump
51
Biden
46
+5% +10% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,356 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,356 Trump
51
Biden
46
+5% +10% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,313 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,313 Trump
51
Biden
46
+5% +10% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,255 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,255 Trump
51
Biden
46
+5% +10% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,109 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,109 Trump
51
Biden
46
+5% +10% -
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 926 Trump
51
Biden
45
+6% +6.2% 0.7
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,943 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,943 Trump
51
Biden
46
+5% +10% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,810 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,810 Trump
50
Biden
46
+4% +9% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,666 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,666 Trump
50
Biden
46
+4% +9% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,596 Trump
52
Biden
46
+6% +11% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,596 Trump
50
Biden
47
+3% +8% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,527 Trump
52
Biden
46
+6% +11% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,527 Trump
49
Biden
47
+2% +7% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,354 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,354 Trump
50
Biden
47
+3% +8% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,131 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,131 Trump
50
Biden
47
+3% +8% -
10/15/20 10/9-10/14 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 605 Trump
49
Biden
41
+8% +7.6% 0.76
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,988 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,988 Trump
50
Biden
46
+4% +9% -
10/14/20 10/8-10/11 Data for Progress B- LV 801 Trump
52
Biden
43
+9% +9% 0.55
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,816 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,816 Trump
50
Biden
46
+4% +9% -
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 Morning Consult B/C LV 903 Trump
54
Biden
42
+12% +12.2% 0.46
10/8/20 9/24-9/28 GBAO B/C LV 800 Trump
49
Biden
44
+5% +5% 0.26
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 863 Trump
48.5
Biden
48.8
+0.4% +4.6% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 863 Trump
51.7
Biden
46.5
+5.1% +10.1% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,700 Trump
49.7
Biden
47.5
+2.2% +7.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,700 Trump
53.5
Biden
44.5
+9% +14% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,326 Trump
50.3
Biden
47.2
+3.1% +8.1% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,326 Trump
53.2
Biden
45.3
+7.8% +12.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,833 Trump
49.5
Biden
47.7
+1.9% +6.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,833 Trump
52.5
Biden
45.4
+7.2% +12.2% -
10/1/20 9/23-9/28 Data for Progress B- LV 824 Trump
50
Biden
45
+5% +5% 0.1
10/1/20 9/23-9/28 Data for Progress B- LV 824 Trump
47
Biden
43
+4% +4% 0.1
9/30/20 9/23-9/27 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,123 Trump
48
Biden
47
+1% +1.2% 0.34
9/27/20 9/22-9/25 YouGov B LV 1,080 Trump
52
Biden
42
+10% +10.4% 0.28
9/22/20 9/11-9/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 764 Trump
50
Biden
44
+6% +6.2% 0.13
9/16/20 9/10-9/14 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 969 Trump
51
Biden
45
+6% +6.2% 0.18
8/6/20 7/30-8/3 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 914 Trump
47
Biden
42
+5% +5.2% 0.06
8/4/20 7/24-8/2 Morning Consult B/C LV 741 Trump
49
Biden
44
+5% +5.2% -
7/27/20 7/15-7/20 ALG Research B/C LV 591 Trump
50
Biden
45
+5% +6.6% -
7/27/20 7/13-7/19 brilliant corners Research & Strategies LV 800 Trump
50
Biden
43
+7% +7% -
7/18/20 7/17-7/17 Gravis Marketing C LV 604 Trump
50
Biden
46
+4% +5% -
5/27/20 5/23-5/26 Civiqs B/C RV 591 Trump
52
Biden
42
+10% +10% -
2/28/20 2/25-2/28 AtlasIntel B/C RV 1,100 Trump
47.6
Biden
41.8
+5.8% +5.8% -
2/6/20 1/31-2/2 East Carolina University B/C RV 1,756 Trump
52
Biden
40
+12% +12% -
7/1/19 6/11-6/14 Change Research C- RV 2,312 Trump
54
Biden
38
+16% +17.2% -
3/2/19 2/28-3/2 Emerson College A- RV 755 Trump
51.9
Biden
48.1
+3.8% +4.2% 0.08


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 54.9 40.7 +14.3%
2012 Romney v Obama 54.6 44.1 +10.5%
2008 McCain v Obama 53.9 44.9 +9%
2004 Bush v Kerry 58 40.9 +17.1%
2000 Bush v Gore 56.8 40.9 +15.9%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 10:39 AM EDT
10/26
South Carolina changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
10/25
South Carolina changed from Safe Trump to Likely Trump
10/22
South Carolina changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
10/13
South Carolina polls jumped 1.6% toward Trump (was R+5.4%, now R+7%)
9/30
South Carolina polls jumped 1.8% toward Biden (was R+7.9%, now R+6.1%)