South Carolina

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/8 11:56 AM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in South Carolina changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




South Carolina Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 43.8%
Trump
100%
Polls: 51.6% +7.8%
100%



Swing

 
+6.4%
From 2016 Results
+0.1%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.506 Testing Range: +/- 3.56%






Polls

 
43.8%
Biden
51.6%
Trump (+7.8%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/23-11/1 Swayable D- LV 426 Trump
49.8		 Biden
48.9		 +0.9% +0.9% 0.47
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 Data for Progress B- LV 880 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +9% 1.05
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,266 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% 0.21
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,266 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
11/2/20 10/22-10/31 Morning Consult B/C LV 904 Trump
51.1		 Biden
44.5		 +6.6% +6.8% 0.91
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,444 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% 0.19
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,444 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,443 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% 0.16
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,443 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,501 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% 0.13
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,501 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,725 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,725 Trump
51		 Biden
45		 +6% +11% -
10/28/20 10/24-10/25 East Carolina University B/C LV 763 Trump
52		 Biden
44.3		 +7.7% +7.7% 0.81
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,582 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,582 Trump
51		 Biden
45		 +6% +11% -
10/27/20 10/22-10/27 Data for Progress B- LV 1,196 Trump
50		 Biden
44		 +6% +6% 0.87
10/26/20 10/26-10/26 Starboard Communications B/C LV 800 Trump
51.2		 Biden
43.9		 +7.3% +7.5% 0.86
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,403 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,403 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,356 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,356 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,313 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,313 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,255 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,255 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,109 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,109 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 926 Trump
51		 Biden
45		 +6% +6.2% 0.55
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,943 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,943 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,810 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,810 Trump
50		 Biden
46		 +4% +9% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,666 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,666 Trump
50		 Biden
46		 +4% +9% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,596 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,596 Trump
50		 Biden
47		 +3% +8% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,527 Trump
52		 Biden
46		 +6% +11% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,527 Trump
49		 Biden
47		 +2% +7% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,354 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,354 Trump
50		 Biden
47		 +3% +8% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,131 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,131 Trump
50		 Biden
47		 +3% +8% -
10/15/20 10/9-10/14 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 605 Trump
49		 Biden
41		 +8% +7.6% 0.63
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,988 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,988 Trump
50		 Biden
46		 +4% +9% -
10/14/20 10/8-10/11 Data for Progress B- LV 801 Trump
52		 Biden
43		 +9% +9% 0.42
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,816 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,816 Trump
50		 Biden
46		 +4% +9% -
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 Morning Consult B/C LV 903 Trump
54		 Biden
42		 +12% +12.2% 0.34
10/8/20 9/24-9/28 GBAO B/C LV 800 Trump
49		 Biden
44		 +5% +5% 0.15
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 863 Trump
48.5		 Biden
48.8		 +0.4% +4.6% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 863 Trump
51.7		 Biden
46.5		 +5.1% +10.1% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,700 Trump
49.7		 Biden
47.5		 +2.2% +7.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,700 Trump
53.5		 Biden
44.5		 +9% +14% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,326 Trump
50.3		 Biden
47.2		 +3.1% +8.1% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,326 Trump
53.2		 Biden
45.3		 +7.8% +12.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,833 Trump
49.5		 Biden
47.7		 +1.9% +6.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,833 Trump
52.5		 Biden
45.4		 +7.2% +12.2% -
10/1/20 9/23-9/28 Data for Progress B- LV 824 Trump
50		 Biden
45		 +5% +5% -
10/1/20 9/23-9/28 Data for Progress B- LV 824 Trump
47		 Biden
43		 +4% +4% -
9/30/20 9/23-9/27 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,123 Trump
48		 Biden
47		 +1% +1.2% 0.24
9/27/20 9/22-9/25 YouGov B LV 1,080 Trump
52		 Biden
42		 +10% +10.4% 0.2
9/22/20 9/11-9/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 764 Trump
50		 Biden
44		 +6% +6.2% -
9/16/20 9/10-9/14 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 969 Trump
51		 Biden
45		 +6% +6.2% 0.09
8/6/20 7/30-8/3 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 914 Trump
47		 Biden
42		 +5% +5.2% -
8/4/20 7/24-8/2 Morning Consult B/C LV 741 Trump
49		 Biden
44		 +5% +5.2% -
7/27/20 7/15-7/20 ALG Research B/C LV 591 Trump
50		 Biden
45		 +5% +6.6% -
7/27/20 7/13-7/19 brilliant corners Research & Strategies LV 800 Trump
50		 Biden
43		 +7% +7% -
7/18/20 7/17-7/17 Gravis Marketing C LV 604 Trump
50		 Biden
46		 +4% +5% -
5/27/20 5/23-5/26 Civiqs B/C RV 591 Trump
52		 Biden
42		 +10% +10% -
2/28/20 2/25-2/28 AtlasIntel B/C RV 1,100 Trump
47.6		 Biden
41.8		 +5.8% +5.8% -
2/6/20 1/31-2/2 East Carolina University B/C RV 1,756 Trump
52		 Biden
40		 +12% +12% -
7/1/19 6/11-6/14 Change Research C- RV 2,312 Trump
54		 Biden
38		 +16% +17.2% -
3/2/19 2/28-3/2 Emerson College A- RV 755 Trump
51.9		 Biden
48.1		 +3.8% +4.2% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 54.9 40.7 +14.3%
2012 Romney v Obama 54.6 44.1 +10.5%
2008 McCain v Obama 53.9 44.9 +9%
2004 Bush v Kerry 58 40.9 +17.1%
2000 Bush v Gore 56.8 40.9 +15.9%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 3:26 AM EDT
10/26
South Carolina changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
10/25
South Carolina changed from Safe Trump to Likely Trump
10/22
South Carolina changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
10/13
South Carolina polls jumped 1.6% toward Trump (was R+5.4%, now R+7%)
9/30
South Carolina polls jumped 1.8% toward Biden (was R+7.9%, now R+6.1%)