South Dakota

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 40.6%
Trump
100%
Polls: 52.9% +12.3%
100%



Swing

 
+17.5%
From 2016 Results
+5.4%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.311 Testing Range: +/- 5.35%






Polls

 
40.6%
Biden
52.9%
Trump (+12.3%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 964 Trump
55
Biden
43
+12% +17% 0.13
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 964 Trump
54
Biden
43
+11% +16% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 948 Trump
55
Biden
43
+12% +17% 0.11
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 948 Trump
54
Biden
43
+11% +16% -
10/25/20 10/19-10/21 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ LV 625 Trump
51
Biden
40
+11% +10.4% 0.95
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 928 Trump
55
Biden
43
+12% +17% 0.09
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 928 Trump
55
Biden
43
+12% +17% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 910 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% 0.07
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 910 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 847 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% 0.05
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 847 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 828 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% 0.04
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 828 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 817 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% 0.02
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 817 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 785 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 785 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 773 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 773 Trump
54
Biden
43
+11% +16% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 766 Trump
55
Biden
43
+12% +17% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 766 Trump
55
Biden
43
+12% +17% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 723 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 723 Trump
54
Biden
43
+11% +16% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 669 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 669 Trump
54
Biden
43
+11% +16% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 622 Trump
56
Biden
43
+13% +18% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 622 Trump
56
Biden
42
+14% +19% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 547 Trump
56
Biden
43
+13% +18% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 547 Trump
56
Biden
42
+14% +19% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 160 Trump
60.7
Biden
37.1
+23.5% +28.5% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 160 Trump
60.8
Biden
37.5
+23.3% +28.3% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 396 Trump
63.9
Biden
33.5
+30.4% +35.4% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 396 Trump
62.5
Biden
35.2
+27.3% +32.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 277 Trump
59.1
Biden
38.2
+20.9% +25.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 277 Trump
59.2
Biden
38.3
+20.9% +25.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 354 Trump
60
Biden
38.5
+21.6% +26.6% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 354 Trump
58.2
Biden
40.7
+17.5% +22.5% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 61.5 31.7 +29.8%
2012 Romney v Obama 57.9 39.9 +18%
2008 McCain v Obama 53.2 44.8 +8.4%
2004 Bush v Kerry 59.9 38.4 +21.5%
2000 Bush v Gore 60.3 37.6 +22.7%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/27 9:45 PM EDT
10/25
South Dakota polls jumped 2.4% toward Biden (was R+14.6%, now R+12.2%)
10/18
South Dakota polls jumped 1.6% toward Biden (was R+18.8%, now R+17.2%)
10/14
South Dakota polls jumped 2% toward Biden (was R+23.5%, now R+21.5%)
10/13
South Dakota polls jumped 5.3% toward Biden (was R+28.8%, now R+23.5%)