South Dakota

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 12/10 11:48 AM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in South Dakota changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




South Dakota Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 37.6%
Trump
100%
Polls: 57.2% +19.6%
100%



Swing

 
+10.2%
From 2016 Results
+1.9%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
37.6%
Biden
57.2%
Trump (+19.6%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/24-10/28 Nielson Brothers Polling C/D LV 484 Trump
55		 Biden
40		 +15% +18% 0.68
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 556 Trump
62		 Biden
36		 +26% +31% 0.23
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 556 Trump
61		 Biden
37		 +24% +29% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 597 Trump
62		 Biden
36		 +26% +31% 0.21
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 597 Trump
60		 Biden
38		 +22% +27% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 594 Trump
61		 Biden
37		 +24% +29% 0.19
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 594 Trump
60		 Biden
38		 +22% +27% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 609 Trump
61		 Biden
38		 +23% +28% 0.17
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 609 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,098 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% 0.06
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,098 Trump
56		 Biden
41		 +15% +20% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,066 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% 0.04
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,066 Trump
55		 Biden
42		 +13% +18% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 964 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 964 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 948 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 948 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
10/25/20 10/19-10/21 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ LV 625 Trump
51		 Biden
40		 +11% +10.4% 0.74
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 928 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 928 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 910 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 910 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 847 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 847 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 828 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 828 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 817 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 817 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 785 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 785 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 773 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 773 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 766 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 766 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 723 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 723 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 669 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 669 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 622 Trump
56		 Biden
43		 +13% +18% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 622 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 547 Trump
56		 Biden
43		 +13% +18% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 547 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 160 Trump
60.7		 Biden
37.1		 +23.5% +28.5% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 160 Trump
60.8		 Biden
37.5		 +23.3% +28.3% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 396 Trump
63.9		 Biden
33.5		 +30.4% +35.4% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 396 Trump
62.5		 Biden
35.2		 +27.3% +32.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 277 Trump
59.1		 Biden
38.2		 +20.9% +25.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 277 Trump
59.2		 Biden
38.3		 +20.9% +25.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 354 Trump
60		 Biden
38.5		 +21.6% +26.6% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 354 Trump
58.2		 Biden
40.7		 +17.5% +22.5% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 61.5 31.7 +29.8%
2012 Romney v Obama 57.9 39.9 +18%
2008 McCain v Obama 53.2 44.8 +8.4%
2004 Bush v Kerry 59.9 38.4 +21.5%
2000 Bush v Gore 60.3 37.6 +22.7%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 10:08 AM EDT
11/1
South Dakota polls jumped 1.8% toward Trump (was R+17.2%, now R+19%)
10/31
South Dakota polls jumped 1.8% toward Trump (was R+15.4%, now R+17.2%)
10/30
South Dakota polls jumped 2% toward Trump (was R+13.4%, now R+15.4%)
10/25
South Dakota polls jumped 2.4% toward Biden (was R+14.6%, now R+12.2%)
10/18
South Dakota polls jumped 1.6% toward Biden (was R+18.8%, now R+17.2%)