Tennessee

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 39.3%
Trump
100%
Polls: 58.3% +19%
100%



Swing

 
+7%
From 2016 Results
+5.6%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
39.3%
Biden
58.3%
Trump (+19%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,696 Trump
56
Biden
42
+14% +19% 0.14
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,696 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,642 Trump
56
Biden
42
+14% +19% 0.12
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,642 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,565 Trump
56
Biden
42
+14% +19% 0.1
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,565 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,547 Trump
56
Biden
42
+14% +19% 0.08
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,547 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,469 Trump
57
Biden
41
+16% +21% 0.06
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,469 Trump
55
Biden
43
+12% +17% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,332 Trump
57
Biden
41
+16% +21% 0.05
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,332 Trump
55
Biden
43
+12% +17% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,150 Trump
57
Biden
41
+16% +21% 0.03
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,150 Trump
55
Biden
43
+12% +17% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,973 Trump
57
Biden
41
+16% +21% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,973 Trump
55
Biden
43
+12% +17% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,901 Trump
57
Biden
41
+16% +21% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,901 Trump
55
Biden
42
+13% +18% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,834 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,834 Trump
56
Biden
42
+14% +19% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,644 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,644 Trump
56
Biden
42
+14% +19% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,433 Trump
57
Biden
41
+16% +21% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,433 Trump
55
Biden
42
+13% +18% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,308 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,308 Trump
55
Biden
42
+13% +18% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,171 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,171 Trump
56
Biden
42
+14% +19% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,092 Trump
58.3
Biden
39.6
+18.7% +23.7% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,092 Trump
61.3
Biden
37
+24.3% +29.3% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,481 Trump
57.6
Biden
39.9
+17.8% +22.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,481 Trump
60.7
Biden
37.7
+23% +28% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,796 Trump
57.2
Biden
40.9
+16.4% +21.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,796 Trump
59.2
Biden
39.6
+19.7% +24.7% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,329 Trump
55.1
Biden
42.6
+12.5% +17.5% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,329 Trump
57.7
Biden
40.6
+17% +22% -
6/9/20 5/5-5/22 SSRS B/C RV 1,000 Trump
51
Biden
42
+9% +10.2% -
5/19/20 4/22-5/1 East Tennessee State University B/C LV 536 Trump
53
Biden
36
+17% +18% -
2/6/20 1/28-1/30 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ RV 625 Trump
55
Biden
39
+16% +15.4% 0.07


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 60.7 34.7 +26%
2012 Romney v Obama 59.5 39.1 +20.4%
2008 McCain v Obama 56.9 41.8 +15.1%
2004 Bush v Kerry 56.8 42.5 +14.3%
2000 Bush v Gore 51.2 47.3 +3.9%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/27 9:50 PM EDT
10/3
Tennessee polls jumped 5% toward Biden (was R+25.3%, now R+20.3%)
6/9
Tennessee polls jumped 2.6% toward Trump (was R+17.8%, now R+20.4%)