Tennessee

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/3 6:36 PM EDT
Biden
Trump
Biden
Polls: 40.9%
Trump
Polls: 57.6% +16.7%
100% Chance of Winning

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Tennessee changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Tennessee Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 40.8%
Trump
100%
Polls: 57.6% +16.8%
100%



Swing

 
+9.2%
From 2016 Results
+3.4%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
40.8%
Biden
57.6%
Trump (+16.8%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/23-11/1 Swayable D- LV 485 Trump
57.6		 Biden
40.9		 +16.7% +16.7% 0.52
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,943 Trump
54		 Biden
45		 +9% +14% 0.27
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,943 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,030 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% 0.24
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,030 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,049 Trump
56		 Biden
43		 +13% +18% 0.22
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,049 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,052 Trump
56		 Biden
43		 +13% +18% 0.19
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,052 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,099 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% 0.07
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,099 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,858 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% 0.06
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,858 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,696 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,696 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,642 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,642 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,565 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,565 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,547 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,547 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,469 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,469 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,332 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,332 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,150 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,150 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,973 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,973 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,901 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,901 Trump
55		 Biden
42		 +13% +18% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,834 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,834 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,644 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,644 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,433 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,433 Trump
55		 Biden
42		 +13% +18% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,308 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,308 Trump
55		 Biden
42		 +13% +18% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,171 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,171 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,092 Trump
58.3		 Biden
39.6		 +18.7% +23.7% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,092 Trump
61.3		 Biden
37		 +24.3% +29.3% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,481 Trump
57.6		 Biden
39.9		 +17.8% +22.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,481 Trump
60.7		 Biden
37.7		 +23% +28% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,796 Trump
57.2		 Biden
40.9		 +16.4% +21.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,796 Trump
59.2		 Biden
39.6		 +19.7% +24.7% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,329 Trump
55.1		 Biden
42.6		 +12.5% +17.5% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,329 Trump
57.7		 Biden
40.6		 +17% +22% -
6/9/20 5/5-5/22 SSRS B/C RV 1,000 Trump
51		 Biden
42		 +9% +10.2% -
5/19/20 4/22-5/1 East Tennessee State University B/C LV 536 Trump
53		 Biden
36		 +17% +18% -
2/6/20 1/28-1/30 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ RV 625 Trump
55		 Biden
39		 +16% +15.4% 0.05


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 60.7 34.7 +26%
2012 Romney v Obama 59.5 39.1 +20.4%
2008 McCain v Obama 56.9 41.8 +15.1%
2004 Bush v Kerry 56.8 42.5 +14.3%
2000 Bush v Gore 51.2 47.3 +3.9%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/2 11:54 PM EDT
10/3
Tennessee polls jumped 5% toward Biden (was R+25.3%, now R+20.3%)
6/9
Tennessee polls jumped 2.6% toward Trump (was R+17.8%, now R+20.4%)